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  #1  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:41 AM
jcm4ccc jcm4ccc is offline
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Default Pass up this edge?

Early in a $33 Party tournament, I am dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG+1. Blinds 20/40. UTG limps. I raise to 175. SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop is T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB pushes all-in. UTG folds. I have to call 2149 chips (all of my chips) to win 2714 chips. Call or fold?
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  #2  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:44 AM
rmgustaf rmgustaf is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

Fold.
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  #3  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:44 AM
sykotic sykotic is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

Mathematically, its about a break even call in my opinion. So it just really depends if you want to gamble or not here.
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Old 04-18-2006, 10:46 AM
MeanGreenTT MeanGreenTT is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

My 1st instinct here is that I like to be the one doing the pushing and not calling here, that said.....

I'm a little leary of the utg limp-call-push. What kind of hands would he speculate with and has ne done this in the past? (dependent but probably not enough info considering the blind level).

Against his range, what will you need to win? I can't imagine that spiking your ace or king will be enough to take this down. Which leaves you with 9 clean outs to the flush, provided that one of 'em doesn't pair the board, filling up a potential set.

Barely over 1-1 on your money, I think I look for a different spot.
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  #5  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:48 AM
jcm4ccc jcm4ccc is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a little leary of the utg limp-call-push.

[/ QUOTE ] it was SB, not UTG, who pushed. Don't know if that makes a difference to your thinking.
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  #6  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:50 AM
Foucault Foucault is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

Very easy call. There is some chance Villain is on a worse flush draw, which is huge for you. It's very unlikely he has more than one pair, giving you 12-15 outs depending on whether he has an A/K in his hand.

I guess this last point is pretty hotly disputed on here, but I really like doubling up early in low buy-in MTT's. Firstly, I have no problem busting, as I considering starting a new tournament with an average stack a better use of my time than trying to recover a stack because I made a tight fold. I know the 200 or so chips you've invested don't seem like much, but they compound over time. People tend to accumulate chips very quickly in the early stages of these tournaments, so I find that doubling up early gives me a lot of opportunities to invest twice as many chips in +EV situations, whereas losing even a small part of my stack early exponentially hurts my ability to recover. This might be a function of my early game, however, which involves putting my whole stack on the line quite often. I guess if you play a more conservative game where you are rarely using all the chips in your stack, early variance will have less effect on your overall success.
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Old 04-18-2006, 10:56 AM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

You almost always have the full 15 outs. I don't even think about anything other than calling this.
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  #8  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:56 AM
Spee Spee is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

You're only really hosed if SB has a set, but then again, who would expect a set to bet like this? Look for SB to have a couple of hearts, or a pair like JJ, 99, 88, 77, and you're a favorite versus all of these holdings. I like your position here and would have a hard time folding this hand. Happy doubling!
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  #9  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:58 AM
rockin rockin is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy call. There is some chance Villain is on a worse flush draw, which is huge for you. It's very unlikely he has more than one pair, giving you 12-15 outs depending on whether he has an A/K in his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #10  
Old 04-18-2006, 10:58 AM
registrar registrar is offline
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Default Re: Pass up this edge?

I think I call here but it depends on my plans for the evening. I mean, it's a an easy fold and move on to a better spot if I like this tournie, like the table and am feeling good about my play.

However, SB makes this move with what? Air? Very, very possibly. The flop looks likes it's missed everyone. And he could be representing or have two pair. It's possible he has a pair, possibly top pair. He could be on a flush draw or oesd. He doesn't, I feel, make this move with a set. So as I feel I could be ahead and have a draw to the nuts and that those nuts are not likley to be threatened by a paired board and that there is a good chance that pairing the A or K will win, I'm very minded to call. I don't do the pokerstove thing but, in summary, I think I'm way ahead or only a little behind his range.

But I'd be happy folding.
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