$1500NL - WSOP Event 49 - Hows My Reasoning?

[WellAdjusted06]

This was a read-heavy situation and the math was close. It's the 2nd level, t50/t100.

Villain is table CL @ ~7000 and UTG. He doubled early with a very loose all in call with AK after the flop with nothing on the board, and got lucky on the river. This was the only hand he's shown and we're in the middle of the 2nd level. He pops 1-3 pots per orbit, usually 4-5xBB so I've got his range pretty wide when in late position. Overall he seems fairly solid as he's outmaneuvered a few players post flop.

Hero is CO, t3500, playing tight, opened one pot and didn't show. I haven't played back at anyone or gotten cute.

Villain UTG raises to t300. Folds to Hero in CO with 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], calls t300. 3 folds. Villain has only opened pots from late position. This is his first raise from UTG and it's smaller than his normal raise so I smell a big hand and decide to see a flop -- it's only the 2nd level ...

Pot = t750. Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain and I are locked in a silly game of chicken/stare-down but since he's first to act he has to look at the flop first. He bets out t375 and I look down at this interesting board. Obviously I'm please with the 10 but he's putting a standard c-bet out there with cards I originally had in his range.

I take my time and put him on AA-JJ,AK-AJ,KQ-KJ, maybe praying with an under pair or dry humping air. I'm crushing AA,QQ,AK,AJ,KJ (56 holdings) and the under pairs. KK,JJ,AQ (22 holdings) are crushing me and Villain isn't repping these IMO. Top 2 sets check raise and are mathematically less likely with one of each on the board. AQ check calls or raises. So I pin him down to AA,QQ AK,AJ,KJ, under pair or air and raise to t1375 giving him 2.5:1 to chase (if he was). I've decided I probably want all the money to go in either here or the turn and this felt like enough to get it there if he had any of this flop or AA.

Villain takes about five seconds to muster the appearance of strength and says, "I'll go all in", nodding, almost as though he was agreeing to what I was effectively saying but wasn't sure and it just slipped out. What I 'heard' was, "I'm probably beat but there's no way I'm getting away from this hand".

So I narrowed him down to AA/AK 85% or QQ/KJ 10% or KK,JJ 5%) and called the all in.

Like I said, this was a read-heavy situation. I was killing the majority of his range and the few beating me were less likely being already partially accounted for. I wasn't technically pot committed but the situation felt good.

Honest feedback, please. Right in the face. I'm not bashful.

Thanx.

[Neku]

As a newbie, I think your reasoning is sound (and I'm amazed that you can calculate ranges at the table of a WSOP event, but that's just my inner newbie talking).

My uninformed guess is that he had AA and he filled his straight to bust you?

[WellAdjusted06]

[ QUOTE ]
As a newbie, I think your reasoning is sound (and I'm amazed that you can calculate ranges at the table of a WSOP event, but that's just my inner newbie talking).

My uninformed guess is that he had AA and he filled his straight to bust you?

[/ QUOTE ]

These types of posts never seem to show up on hands we won. But what I'm looking for is whether my line on this, with a potentially scary board, and my tournament life on the line, gets a yes-nod from the 2+2'ers. I've learned a lot on this forum and try to plod through these situations through the eyes of one of these threads and your collective, able poker minds.

It's a lot easier to back into it by typing with no clock ticking, but what I've laid out above represents how and why I came to the decision to call. I can't claim to have penciled in the exact numerical detail as outlined above while being watched by 9 players and a dealer, but I did name his range in my head and confirm that, mathematically, I was ahead of that range ~2:1 and getting a read that felt like I was a ~4:1 favorite. That much happened at the table, at least...

Thanx.

[Larude]

Thoughts of an unexperienced player.

First considering your range: AA-JJ,AK-AJ,KQ-KJ >>> I would skip KJ that looks a littlebit to loose to me, after all, you put him on a normal raising hand for that position.

On the flop you raise him after he makes his CBet. If he has QQ, KQ, or AJ and you raise here as big as you did he will probably lay these ones down, but that is not so awful, because he will probably lay them down also if you call here and bet the turn (and he didn't hit and checked into you). He could be calling with these hands on the river and pay off a little extra for which you have to check the turn, but then you are looking into two streets of free cards and thats not really what you want (A and Q are damn scary cards). Besides you could miss the action from AK or AA. Raising is pretty much the only justified move in this spot unless this guy is a worldclass player, because he won't pay you off with AK or AA according to my analysis beneath.

Now you raise, lets look how this will look in the eyes of a worldclass player (presumably hahah). He wil see TAG >>> AA, KK, AK chance of 20% (relative small because you didn't raise preflop), QQ, KQ, chances like 0, you would probably would have called because of your OESD and KQ is pretty loose for a TAG to call an UTG raiser with. KJ, JT >>> 10%, unlikely to loose for a TAG. AQ that's a possibility, just like TT or JJ, about 55% (fits your hand best). Bluffing is very well possible on this board, chance like 15%.

Now if the pro has AA he knows 70% sure he is behind (55+10+KK). Moreover if he has AK he knows even more sure he is behind (like 75%). So if a worldclassplayer moves allin here you are probably dead meat (he has AQ, KK or JJ). Now we don't have a worldclassplayer here obvious because he made a loose call with AK and got river lucky so he might be doing this again here. I calculated that to call this allin here we need 32% equity if we narrow down the guys range to AQ, KK, JJ, AA, AK we have about 50% equity so it is an easy call. Very much depends though if he is a first level thinker and can think about what you could have, if he can think straight he knows he is beaten when he holds AK or AA and you raise him, if he isn't a full first level thinker he will move in and gamble with AK or AA. Against a topplayer it is a laydown against this player you have to call presumably.

One thing thoough, that the says I'm probably beaten and knowing his loose calling image, while still going all-in tells me he could also be trapping you. It's a very very difficult spot let not tell someone to me that it is an insta-allin call.

I also want to remark that AQ, KK and JJ are mostly not checking here because you have either hit the flop and you will pay off or you hit nothing and won't payoff, besides checking from a loose aggressive player would be very suspicious.

[Neku]

I hope you didn't think I was being flippant, WellAdjusted. I think it's just a baffling (& intimidating) hand. Wouldn't want to be in this spot. I'm very curious how it went.

[Eratosthenes]

[ QUOTE ]
He doubled early with a very loose all in call with AK after the flop with nothing on the board, and got lucky on the river. ... He pops 1-3 pots per orbit, usually 4-5xBB so I've got his range pretty wide when in late position.

...
What I 'heard' was, "I'm probably beat but there's no way I'm getting away from this hand".


[/ QUOTE ]

You have good reads--you know this villian is in a hurry to get his chips in the middle. You are only in big trouble against sets--you are getting the right price to call if you know he has a straight--you crush everything else. I think you have to call. If you go out set-over-set against a laggish villian at level 2, it is just bad luck. If he has a straight, then you made a good call. If he has a worse hand and sucks out, then you are the second person he put a bad beat on.

I could lay this down (maybe!!) against a typical live weak-tight villian that wouldn't make this play without at least a set, but this is not that guy.

[tomek322]

Once you raise half your stack on the flop, I don't see how you can fold to a three bet. If you wanted advice, we should discuss what other lines you could of taken. RR PF to 900? Smooth call the flop and see what he does on the turn? As played folding is ridiculous, when your getting 3:1.

So you playing chicken stare down, did he give you a reaction when he looked? My guess is KQ, QQ and you lost somewhere otherwise we aren't reading this.

Edit: AQ wasn't in his range?

[Larude]

[ QUOTE ]
Once you raise half your stack on the flop, I don't see how you can fold to a three bet. If you wanted advice, we should discuss what other lines you could of taken. RR PF to 900? Smooth call the flop and see what he does on the turn? As played folding is ridiculous, when your getting 3:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are getting 2,16:1 that makes a difference in this sort of cases. Also folding isn't ridiculous, it may wrong in this case but it really can't be always an ever. What do you think of my case outlined of a player who can think on the first level (what you have) and then raises you (that's not so far a stretch actually).

[BarryLyndon]

Your buddy seems like the player who will get it in with all two pairs, AK, maybe KQ, and AA. you're not getting "crushed" by AQ, and he definitely leads with this. In fact, I would go so far to say that your assumptions about what he does on top set with this board are pretty off - I think that even the most retarted and/or FPS lags fire on this board and hope for an RR with AQ and top sets. Finally, you already did the math as to crushing his range and a lot of his range he will call with / get it in. So, nice hand.

Barry

[tomek322]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 2,16:1 that makes a difference in this sort of cases.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing some math? 750+1375+1375+1825=5325... you have to call 1825 more... 2.91:1. Sry not quite 3.