caught betwixt and between.... with ace - queen...........

[bobneptune]

bodog 3k g.... 182 runners 20 left, 18 get paid. average stack =13.5k. my stack = 10k.

i'm utg with AQ soooted. i've been at the table for 20 hands and have been fairly tight, only showing down a huge str8 & flush draw with 2 o'cards that clicked.

blinds = 600/300 A 75. my M ~ 7. table is 7 handed. largest stack at table is 18k. is my optimal play:

1.... cram with my M=7 ???

2.... raise from 1200-1800 and fold to a cram ???

3.... raise from 1200-1800 and call a cram getting the right price for all hands save QQ+ and AK.

4.... raise to 3600 and call any cram getting close to the right price to call all but KK+

[seke2]

rest of the stack sizes of people at the table would help here. assuming some fairly normal number of opponents/stack sizes, raise to 1500 and either fold or call depending on the size/tendencies of a reraise sounds good.

[SonofDjugashvili]

How do you do anything but shove here? Seriously. If you fold this hand with an M of 7 whether P/F or after a R/R, do not play poker. The only time you can fold if this is a SAT and you are 3 away from getting in. Even then...

[seke2]

you can do something other than shove because you have like 17xBB. you def can't fold, but you don't have to shove.

[bobneptune]

[ QUOTE ]
rest of the stack sizes of people at the table would help here. assuming some fairly normal number of opponents/stack sizes, raise to 1500 and either fold or call depending on the size/tendencies of a reraise sounds good.

[/ QUOTE ]


first, thanks for the reply.

my conundrum with this situation is , after i make any raise, if i get shoved with all stacks reasonably close to mine, by the math, i must call a shove unless i can put a crammer on precisely AK and QQ+, and under these circumstances i cannot assign so tight a range.

i mean, if an opponent jams my raise and flips over JJ before i act, i've gotta call with the price the pot is giving me. i cannot reject small edges here.


the tourney leader had about 33k, so i'm still viable, but the math is coaxing me to call virtually any shove. winning a double up hand makes me 3rd or 4th in chips with 20 to play.

[seke2]

eh, i mean, you have to call from a pure cEV perspective, but usually that's not the only thing that matters. AQ from EP is always going to be a marginal cEV hand no matter how you play it on anything other than a shortstack.

but that is part of why i suggested a smaller (2.5xBB) raise...if you've been tight, it should still give you some decent FE on the raise since you're in EP, you'll win a pot preflop or on the flop with a cbet a lot of the time, and you can fold to a push even though it might be a small math mistake because you're preserving a large stack to save it for better opportunities in the future.

find sherman's post from earlier today about predictability of +EV spots later in tournaments for a very interesting viewpoint on that.

i did not notice how close you were to the bubble originally either. most likely, your average opponent won't be reraising light over your UTG raise in that spot also, so folding to a push isn't necessarily bad.

if you're resigning yourself to calling anyone who pushes over your raise anyway, i think its still better to make a small raise and call a push here. that way while you still always lose when you run into QQ+/AK, you occasionally induce a bluff from worse hands as well.

[Pokerfarian]

I dont like the idea of "inducing bluffs from worse hands" because a lot of the hands which may shove over you but not call a shove are like 66...hands you dont want in. Overall, this is a really awkward stack size, m=7, I tend to go with pushing is the "lesser evil"

[bobneptune]

[ QUOTE ]
i did not notice how close you were to the bubble originally either. most likely, your average opponent won't be reraising light over your UTG raise in that spot also, so folding to a push isn't necessarily bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

when i hold an ace in my hand, there is > 2% chance any player behind me holds a hand that crushes me (AA, KK, AK). with 6 left behind me there's about a 10% chance i'm crushed .. i suggest that washes with the times i'm way ahead of a potential crammer who holds AJs, KQs, plus any restealing hand/bluff.


say i raise to 1500 as you advise and get crammed by someone in mp that has me covered. there is 1425 in the pot from the blinds and antes plus my 1500 bet = 2,925 in the pot. the crammer adds 10,000 (my total stack), which puts 12,925 in and it costs me 8500 to call which is better than a 3/2 money price.

that's not an insignificant edge.... i don't know how i can turn that down.

[gvegas]

You are doing the math wrong. You don't have to assign that tight a range of hands to get away from it. Against the top 5% of hands(99+, AQ+) your AQs has around 39% equity, or you need 1.6 to 1 in order to call. Thats approximately what the pot is laying you. So the range is actually much wider. You could make an argument that this close to the bubble villain's range is tighter and you are not getting the right price. Unless you have a very specific read on the re-raiser, or you are determined to accumulate chips in order to make a run at first place I would fold to a re-raise. Again, villain only needs to have 99+, AQ+ for this to be a borderline situation to begin with.

[LSgambler]

I think you are a little to deep for a shove. I'd raise it to 1800 and probably call a shove.