i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[kjander]

I am not a sports better but reading a few of these things makes see that this is a crazy show in terms of sports betting, and makes me wish I would have been betting.

am I reading ir right that katherines odds of winning it were better in the final 12 than they are now after she sang the finale. And Taylors line was like almost +2000 in the final 4 but not near that in the final 4.

Seems odd to me that a Heads up voting contest could really have a -800/+600 line when we see such a thing as Chris getting voted off in 4th and a final 3 that was within 1% of each other.

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not a sports better but reading a few of these things makes see that this is a crazy show in terms of sports betting, and makes me wish I would have been betting.

am I reading ir right that katherines odds of winning it were better in the final 12 than they are now after she sang the finale. And Taylors line was like almost +2000 in the final 4 but not near that in the final 4.

Seems odd to me that a Heads up voting contest could really have a -800/+600 line when we see such a thing as Chris getting voted off in 4th and a final 3 that was within 1% of each other.

[/ QUOTE ]

kjander, there were huge opportunities where the odds just didn't seem correct (could be hindsight though)

it should have been more obvious that anyone except taylor (maybe even taylor too) could be voted off. how could mandisa have been 20-1 or 25-1 to get voted off when she wasn't physically attractive and didn't get amazing reviews from the judges (yes, good reviews)

the betting lines were a little too deterministic in who was getting voted off, especially before the tuesday performances

the line stuck to chris as heavy favorite even as taylor seemed to beat him on dialidol.com pretty consistently.

seems like money making opportunities dried up later in the competition... not sure if that was market efficiency or just more predictable (i frankly think the latter, except for chris' departure).

i think they'll be more opportunities next season.

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
Performify, I respect your opinions, as you seem to generally have a good feel for the show. But I strongly disagree with a few of them.

[ QUOTE ]

Kellie has absolutely no value for making the final two in my opinion. People are artificially inflating her value due to Simon's offhanded "these are my final three" comment, which i've already addressed previously in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep disrespecting Kellie's chances, and I think that's a big mistake. As I've said earlier in the thread, I think she has what it takes to go at least top 4, and Simon seems to agree. Meanwhile, you keep overvaluing both Elliot and Katharine IMO, particularly Elliot.

I'm backing up my opinions with bets on Kellie to outlast Katharine (+386 currently), and Kellie to make top 4 (in at +286). I think Kellie easily outlasts Elliot, but don't see value in the current Pinny line.

I'd be interested in making other sorts of American Idol wagers as well, but that's all I can find (besides eventual winner and who will be booted). If you or anyone else wants to make any friendly last longers, I think it would be a blast. (I already have a lot of money down on the eventual winners and other things, so I'm just talking small and friendly wagers, like a hundred or two, for kicks.) For example:

[ QUOTE ]
Chris and Kat are lightyears ahead of everyone else right now in this competition.

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All betting lines have Kat as the clear #2, no one else even close, as she is almost twice as likely as the next closest contestant, based on all available odds. You have her as being even more likely, a 90% shot.

I'd be willing to wager that Kat is not final 2, getting +150 since this is admittedly the underdog side of the play. I'm also willing to lay odds, where I would have the favorite side of the play. For example:

[ QUOTE ]
Pending surprises in the performances, i will not be surprised in the slightest to see a bottom three this week of Bucky, Lisa, and Kellie Pickler.

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I am willing to wager that Kellie is not bottom 3 this week. I would give you or anyone else +150 and lay the -150 myself.

I would also take anything reasonable against Elliot.

I just think these are fun ideas, if no interest, no worries. Just interested in trying to make something out of my opinions that Kellie is undervalued and Katharine and Elliot are overvalued. I have done props and stuff with 2+2ers on the STT forum, and am good for it, and am also willing to send money to a 3rd party, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it too late to nominate this for worst post of 2006?

[Performify]

wow, nice ressurection bump [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

For those interested in betting on Idol this year, if you haven't noticed there's a whole forum devoted to it:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...amp;Board=idol

I'd strongly recommend it. Was able to secure some very nice value last year, and I imagine the lines will still be decently soft this year (but not nearly so much as in years past).

Anyways, check the idol forum for more. If someone wants to discuss Idol over here, I'd suggest the Chatter thread. if there's a lot of it, we can certainly start a thread...

[Thremp]

ImBen,

IIRC llabb is very good at TV show betting. Whether he is coerced into this by his wife or just feels the need to watch these shows to make some ez monies, he seems to understand the markets very well in these things. I will agree it is amazingly homosexual. And add to the fact you'll like only be able to wager a couple dimes at any point on these type of events. But... Free monies are free monies.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
ImBen,

IIRC llabb is very good at TV show betting. Whether he is coerced into this by his wife or just feels the need to watch these shows to make some ez monies, he seems to understand the markets very well in these things. I will agree it is amazingly homosexual. And add to the fact you'll like only be able to wager a couple dimes at any point on these type of events. But... Free monies are free monies.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get off your knees.

BTW, this is a pretty crappy ImBen post.

[Thremp]

Homer,

I'm usually such a hater... I figured I'd participate in the circle jerk... But I got confused I thought this was ElDGD.