China's anti-satellite test

[Stu Pidasso]

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Seems like China is gearing up for a potential conflict the US. Why do you guys think they choose this particular moment to demonstrate a military capability whose only real target are US military assets?

Stu

[John Kilduff]

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Seems like China is gearing up for a potential conflict the US. Why do you guys think they choose this particular moment to demonstrate a military capability whose only real target are US military assets?

Stu

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Despite their economy, China is still very much a totalitarian state. China is planning long-term in military matters.

China will utilize the next 20-30 years for strengthening its economy, production capacity, and military. Its buildup is reminiscent of Nazi Germany's military & productivity buildup. The USA will be weakened by its struggle with Islamic terrorists during that time, and this window will be exploited by China. Then, China will very possibly pounce and try to defeat the USA--and possibly next the world.

During the years Chinais building up and the USA is harrassed by Islamic terrorists, China will attempt to slowly exert its own expanding hegemony, and to mildly harass the USA as well, awaiting the opportune moment to strike decisively. If the USA becomes crippled by lack of military and communications satellites, and EMP attacks disable much of theUSA mainland's electronic infrastructure, the USA will be in big trouble as it will no longer possess its huge hi-tech advantage. Then China's conventional weaponry and enormous Army will become a pivotal factor.

[bobman0330]

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Link

Seems like China is gearing up for a potential conflict the US. Why do you guys think they choose this particular moment to demonstrate a military capability whose only real target are US military assets?

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite their economy, China is still very much a totalitarian state. China is planning long-term in military matters.

China will utilize the next 20-30 years for strengthening its economy, production capacity, and military. Its buildup is reminiscent of Nazi Germany's military & productivity buildup. The USA will be weakened by its struggle with Islamic terrorists during that time, and this window will be exploited by China. Then, China will very possibly pounce and try to defeat the USA--and possibly next the world.

During the years Chinais building up and the USA is harrassed by Islamic terrorists, China will attempt to slowly exert its own expanding hegemony, and to mildly harass the USA as well, awaiting the opportune moment to strike decisively. If the USA becomes crippled by lack of military and communications satellites, and EMP attacks disable much of theUSA mainland's electronic infrastructure, the USA will be in big trouble as it will no longer possess its huge hi-tech advantage. Then China's conventional weaponry and enormous Army will become a pivotal factor.

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Thank you Tom Clancy.

[John Kilduff]

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Link

Seems like China is gearing up for a potential conflict the US. Why do you guys think they choose this particular moment to demonstrate a military capability whose only real target are US military assets?

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite their economy, China is still very much a totalitarian state. China is planning long-term in military matters.

China will utilize the next 20-30 years for strengthening its economy, production capacity, and military. Its buildup is reminiscent of Nazi Germany's military & productivity buildup. The USA will be weakened by its struggle with Islamic terrorists during that time, and this window will be exploited by China. Then, China will very possibly pounce and try to defeat the USA--and possibly next the world.

During the years Chinais building up and the USA is harrassed by Islamic terrorists, China will attempt to slowly exert its own expanding hegemony, and to mildly harass the USA as well, awaiting the opportune moment to strike decisively. If the USA becomes crippled by lack of military and communications satellites, and EMP attacks disable much of theUSA mainland's electronic infrastructure, the USA will be in big trouble as it will no longer possess its huge hi-tech advantage. Then China's conventional weaponry and enormous Army will become a pivotal factor.

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Thank you Tom Clancy.

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I've never read Tom Clancy, but it stands to reason that it is a very plausible scenario. If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years, and China has had an imperialistic culture for thousands of years. Not that I don't like very much certain other aspects of Chinese culture, especially art and music. It is a rich culture, but it is also decidedly very strict and imperialistic. China is very patiently building up and modernizing with the eventual aim of winning a war with the USA, if that's what is required for China to become the world's largest hegemon.

[bobman0330]

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I've never read Tom Clancy, but it stands to reason that it is a very plausible scenario. If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years, and China has had an imperialistic culture for thousands of years. Not that I don't like very much certain other aspects of Chinese culture, especially art and music. It is a rich culture, but it is also decidedly very strict and imperialistic. China is very patiently building up and modernizing with the eventual aim of winning a war with the USA, if that's what is required for China to become the world's largest hegemon.

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I'm not sure how you can argue that China has become more totalitarian in recent years, but that's beside the point. China is certainly a long-term threat to the peace and independence of the region of SE Asia, but I think it's a little far-fetched to worry about a Chinese thread to the US. Unless the Bering Land Bridge reemerges, their big army isn't going to be that useful.

I think this test is much more about showing off and playing to nationalist sentiment at home than shooting down GPS satellites and pulling off a second Pearl Harbor.

[John Kilduff]

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I've never read Tom Clancy, but it stands to reason that it is a very plausible scenario. If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years, and China has had an imperialistic culture for thousands of years. Not that I don't like very much certain other aspects of Chinese culture, especially art and music. It is a rich culture, but it is also decidedly very strict and imperialistic. China is very patiently building up and modernizing with the eventual aim of winning a war with the USA, if that's what is required for China to become the world's largest hegemon.

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I'm not sure how you can argue that China has become more totalitarian in recent years, but that's beside the point. China is certainly a long-term threat to the peace and independence of the region of SE Asia, but I think it's a little far-fetched to worry about a Chinese thread to the US. Unless the Bering Land Bridge reemerges, their big army isn't going to be that useful.

I think this test is much more about showing off and playing to nationalist sentiment at home than shooting down GPS satellites and pulling off a second Pearl Harbor.

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China has definitelly become more totalitarian in recent years, as evidenced by its increasingly stringent and heavy handed crackdowns and policing of means of expression, including over the internet. Censorship and the like in China is UP.

The scenario I am describing is obviously not immediate--if by far-fetched you mean far-off, then OK...but I don't think it's a far-fetched scenario given 2 to 3 decades. Of course it might not occur but it very well might also.

As for China's army, China is fast developing a "blue water"
Navy, and overall offensive military capability. Give them 20 or 30 years and they will easily reach a near-parity with U.S. conventional forces, plus have a far larger Army, plus likely have the means to nullify much of the USA's hi-tech advantage in weapons systems. They recently shadowed a U.S. aircraft carrier, which was a shocker, and the shadowing sub was within range of devastating torpedo attack. China just shot down their own weather satellite which had a higher orbit than U.S. military satellites and which would be harder to shoot down. The U.S. currently possesses great hi-tech advantages, but such things are vulnerable to asymmetric countermeasures and China should be in a position to implement such countermeasures in decades to come, particularly if the U.S. does not itself proceed with a program of military space hegemony. Anti-satellite is easier and more cost-effective that satellite systems.

[andyfox]

"If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years"

This is simply untrue. The government has relaxed its hold in many areas of the country, especially those areas where capitalist economic arrangement pertain. And it stands to reason that, as more liberal economic policies proliferate, as well as more and more cultural contct with the outside world, that the outdated political arrangements will come under increasing pressure.

Anyway, since you feel China will be attacking us, what should we do about it? A preemptive strike?

[John Kilduff]

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"If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years"

This is simply untrue. The government has relaxed its hold in many areas of the country, especially those areas where capitalist economic arrangement pertain. And it stands to reason that, as more liberal economic policies proliferate, as well as more and more cultural contct with the outside world, that the outdated political arrangements will come under increasing pressure.

Anyway, since you feel China will be attacking us, what should we do about it? A preemptive strike?

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No, it's quite true; with increasing openness of capitalism in China in recent years has also come increasing government censorship and political repression. I'll try to dig up an article or two for you about it, but give me a couple days.

I don't think a pre-emptive strike would be a good idea to deal with the looming long-term Chinese military threat. That would probably be a terrible idea. Actually, I'm not sure what a good idea would be [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[John Kilduff]

Here are a few links:

CNN Harry Wu: Labor Camps Reinforce China's Totalitarian Rule

Aiding the Policenet

Facing China's Quiet Juggernaut

Nothing In Common: A Policy Review for President Bush's China Vist

[AlexM]

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Seems like China is gearing up for a potential conflict the US. Why do you guys think they choose this particular moment to demonstrate a military capability whose only real target are US military assets?

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite their economy, China is still very much a totalitarian state. China is planning long-term in military matters.

China will utilize the next 20-30 years for strengthening its economy, production capacity, and military. Its buildup is reminiscent of Nazi Germany's military & productivity buildup. The USA will be weakened by its struggle with Islamic terrorists during that time, and this window will be exploited by China. Then, China will very possibly pounce and try to defeat the USA--and possibly next the world.

During the years Chinais building up and the USA is harrassed by Islamic terrorists, China will attempt to slowly exert its own expanding hegemony, and to mildly harass the USA as well, awaiting the opportune moment to strike decisively. If the USA becomes crippled by lack of military and communications satellites, and EMP attacks disable much of theUSA mainland's electronic infrastructure, the USA will be in big trouble as it will no longer possess its huge hi-tech advantage. Then China's conventional weaponry and enormous Army will become a pivotal factor.

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When was the last time China invaded another country? Like 300 years ago?