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#1
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Re: local pub parlay cards
OK, you're right, if every game has p=.50, then your least bad option is a 4-teamer. It's also slightly better to buy a scratch-off ticket than to drop a dollar bill in a flask of sulfuric acid, but that doesn't mean either option is advisable. I always make the mistake of assuming you people are interested in advantage play.
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#2
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Re: local pub parlay cards
Well, that condition obviously matters a lot, because that's what determines if OP should be playing this or not. So just saying "10-teamers have the highest expectation" doesn't really help all that much without elaboration.
I was interested in how good you had to be in order to make this +EV, and like you, I get that it's about 53.7%. 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. So yeah, if you're able to win at all, you'll do best playing 10-teamers. |
#3
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Re: local pub parlay cards
so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in ev?
also, yes, ties lose. and furthermore i am unfortunatly not able to bet these lines on a single game basis. |
#4
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in ev? also, yes, ties lose. and furthermore i am unfortunatly not able to bet these lines on a single game basis. [/ QUOTE ] I don't have Sharp Sports Betting in front of me but this info is in there. Each number has a different value. For example, moving from 3 to 3.5 is bigger than 7 to 7.5 is bigger than other moves. Because ties lose, you can treat +20 as +19.5... |
#5
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Re: local pub parlay cards
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#6
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Re: local pub parlay cards
Caliente's Parlay Card "Underdogs"
Rams +3.5 Lions +5.5 Panthers +7.5 Dolphins +10.5 Raiders +7.5 Vikings +1.5 Bengals +3.5 Bills +2.5 Texans +10.5 Jaguars +4.5 49ers +2.5 Redskins +17.5 Packers +3.5 - Min bet: 1us Max bet: 200us Min Picks: 3 Max Picks: 15 - |
#7
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. [/ QUOTE ] 0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521. |
#8
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Re: local pub parlay cards
Here my "Have Fun"
12 Team -Parlay Card- NFL Week 8. Rams +3.5 Lions +5.5 Panthers +7.5 Dolphins +10.5 Titans -7.5 Eagles -1.5 Bengals +3.5 Jets -2.5 Texans +10.5 Jaguars +4.5 49ers +2.5 Redskins +17.5 Risk $5 to win $10,000 Now lets have fun. |
#9
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. [/ QUOTE ] 0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521. [/ QUOTE ] I agree my number before was wrong, but I'm still not getting the same answer as you. This is the equation I'm solving: 10*(p^4) = 300*(p^10) + 20*10*(p^9*(1-p)) Where am I going wrong? |
#10
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Re: local pub parlay cards
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point. [/ QUOTE ] 0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521. [/ QUOTE ] I agree my number before was wrong, but I'm still not getting the same answer as you. This is the equation I'm solving: 10*(p^4) = 300*(p^10) + 20*10*(p^9*(1-p)) Where am I going wrong? [/ QUOTE ] I deleted the spreadsheet, but without giving it much thought it seems like you're ignoring the probability that you lose your stake. |
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