AKs waits for the turn to raise TPTK

[thepizzlefosho]

UTG limper is a lagtard preflop who tends to put in too many bets with any pair on the flop if she thinks she can win the hand, but doesn't seem to play draws very aggressively. Also calls down very light.

BB is TAG by numbers 28/18 and I haven't noticed anything significant on him.

I figured the either the BB or the limper had a flush draw, and I obviously can't protect my hand by raising the flop. However I figured a non-club turn would give me a great spot to make both of them see the river for 2BB.

I expect a lot of responses are just going to say jam the flop, and obviously I was seconded guessing myself after playing the hand (why I posted on here). But I think there may be some merit to the play. Am I nuts for waiting for the turn, or is there method to my madness?


Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises....

[Tryptamean]

I think your reasoning is ok, but you are going to hate yourself when a club comes on the turn and you just keep calling with the best hand. so.....

jam the flop

also, you can protect yourself from the sb peeling with backdoor draws on the flop.

[Tryptamean]

Also, if the BB is tag, he could be looking to jam his flush draw and trap people in between. That would be an excellent result for you. make them pay 2BB to get past the flop.

[thepizzlefosho]

bump for the afternoon crowd

[Oink]

Raise the flop. There is simply too much value to be won with 2 players in already and SB either calling two cold or folding some kind of a draw.

I dont think the board is draw heavy enough to assume that your eq will depend heavily on the turn card. I would like you play more with AJ on a JT9 flop with a fd.

Also the whole waiting for the turn is also best when you have players behind you but the pot is too big for them to fold anything even faced with 2 bets. Here you only have 1 player behind you and there isnt that many draws that can profitably call 2 bets cold.

[thepizzlefosho]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. There is simply too much value to be won with 2 players in already and SB either calling two cold or folding some kind of a draw.

I dont think the board is draw heavy enough to assume that your eq will depend heavily on the turn card. I would like you play more with AJ on a JT9 flop with a fd.

Also the whole waiting for the turn is also best when you have players behind you but the pot is too big for them to fold anything even faced with 2 bets. Here you only have 1 player behind you and there isnt that many draws that can profitably call 2 bets cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

flush and straight cards can both profitably call 2 bets cold on the flop. I really can't protect my hand at all on the flop.

Plus I always get two bets out of the lagtard because the flop donker bets the turn 100% of the time (he's a "I took the lead so I keep betting" TAG).

I know I am missing out on value, but really it wasn't so much that I was really worried about the flush cards on the turn (though I would have just called down or folded if it came 2-bets to me on the turn) but I figured I could get max value for my hand when I get to raise both of them on a safe turn.

I guess I thought that I got max when ahead, and lose the least if the third club comes on the turn and I have to fold to a c/r.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
flush and straight cards can both profitably call 2 bets cold on the flop. I really can't protect my hand at all on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But do you think you can protect it on the turn? I mean its only SB that you can face with 2 bets and on the turn he will still have odds to call two bets with a FD or an OESD

It was kind of my point that the whole waiting is when you can actually face players with 2 bets and face them with an incorrect call on the turn when you cant on the flop.


IMO you are getting a bit fancy with all that waiting. So you now post the read that BB will bet again. But even so we cant expect BB to bet turn 100% or the LAG tard to call turn 100%. Also as unlikely as it sounds you will sometimes see SB calling 2 on the flop and then fold the turn.

Cliff notes: Just raise for value when you can.

BTW I dont think your play is horrible or anything.

[thepizzlefosho]

fair enough. I thought maybe I was getting a bit greedy. The play worked this time, even though I had to muck because they both hit the flush on the river but luckily I didn't have to put in a bet. Normally I just pop this up, and I guess that should be my default play.

I think I just had a good handle on the table since I was two tabling and I had been taking notes on these guys for awhile. But usually I really want to make these guys pay if the donker has TP with a crap kicker, and the other two have gutters or just a pair, instead of trying to get max out of them on the turn.