stud 8 - prof backwards

[howzit]

the main reason i went for the c/r on 5th was to thin the field and get my equity up (although at the cost of 3 bets on fifth and call down sixth/7th)

the last thing i wanted was seat 1 to make a baby two pair and take the high. with a c/r i was sure he'd lay down a pair and make sure he didn't back into baby two pair/low draw and me get middled.

now that i read the responses, i prefer a lead bet on 5th. as somebody said, if they can't beat 99, they should fold.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone suggesting folding this hand at any point will eventually get killed in an aggressive 3-handed game. You've got to accept that the variance will be sickening, but not playing these type hands out, in this type of 3-handed situation, is expensive. You've simply got to play poker well.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like first-level thinking, where you are only thinking about your hand. Based on the betting that has happened, the cards that are out, and your read of your opponent, there are situations where you can fold at some point while holding this type of hand.

For those who applaud increasing your equity, how much equity do you think you have? How much equity do you think you are gaining by knocking the third player out?

[howzit]

ran a bunch of hand possibilities for 5th street:

if seat 2 has a made low, he's hovering around 60% of equity and i pick up about 8-10% by knocking out seat 1.

if seat 2 has a split pair or buried pair below nines, i have low-30% pot equity and pick up another 10% by knocking out seat 1.

so, by me c/r'ing on fifth, seat 2 is getting the best of it in most cases and i pick up on avg. 10% of equity by knocking out seat 1. not a money winner in the long run but I do pick up seat 1's dead money. a reraise on 3rd might isolate (prob. not SH'ed and in this particular game) but a c/r on fourth would be cheaper to isolate. like i said, i was shocked seat 1 called fourth so a c/r in the future would pretty much get me HU w/seat 2. not a great place to be, but if I get it HU and seat 2 bricks 5th, equity swings in my fav.

as played on fifth, a lead should save me that extra big bet when i do get scooped.

results: seat 2 had pocket deuces and made a low on seventh for a chop.

[SweetLuckyMe]

[ QUOTE ]
For those who applaud increasing your equity, how much equity do you think you have? How much equity do you think you are gaining by knocking the third player out?

[/ QUOTE ] To somewhat oversimplifly it - short handed stud 8 is about the high hand punishing the low draw(s). A pair of nines vs. any low draw on 3rd and 4th is in good shape - a pair of nines against two low draws or one low draw and a couple of overcards not so much. You benefit immensely by getting rid of one of them. Run some sims and see for yourself. Do you want to lose a pot because you tried to save a small bet on 4th by not rr'ing?

Playing short handed correctly increases variance as well as expectation. Passivity + short handed play = losses. There's just no way around it.

[Micturition Man]

I totally agree with the essence of this post and I think the conventional wisdom on this board is definitely too weak/tight/passive with respect to overpairs in stud 8.

However two nits:

1. Actually you can be in terrible shape on 4th versus a single low opponent, but admittedly that is rare and shouldn't influence your play that much since you never know you're in that spot.

2. I thought most of the argument in this thread was about playing 5th strong versus a guy showing 3 low and a guy showing 2 low.

That's obviously a much worse spot than on 4th facing a guy showing 2 low and a guy showing a low and a brick.

Fourth you should clearly play to get heads up.

Fifth is a much more delicate situation (and one you should not often be in against decent opponents).

I think on 5th as much as you would like to eliminate the uncompleted low draw it may be best to play passively, considering you're unimproved and the pot is not that big.

At this point you lose a lot on the jamming with the possible made low and your equity gain is much reduced by the fact that the low half is usually already gone now.

Also you will want to fold if the 3 low catches another low on 6th and you're still on one pair.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

I think it's okay to try and knock out a player on fourth. I think that it's a bit more dubious to try to do so on fifth.

Let's say that you lead on fifth and the 5T8 calls, which he just might because it is only one more bet. If the low board then raises, the 5T8 will probably also call if you just call, assuming he just called your first bet. Should you then raise to drive out the third player, knowing that the possible made low will most likely cap it?

If it gets capped on fifth and the third player is not knocked out, what is your strategy if you don't improve on sixth?

[Micturition Man]

[ QUOTE ]

If it gets capped on fifth and the third player is not knocked out, what is your strategy if you don't improve on sixth?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your objection in this post, but since you asked...

If it actually got capped 3-ways on 5th you would clearly have no choice but to check-call 6th and 7th as long as it is one bet to you have not improved. You would fold for 2 cold at any point if you have not improved and maybe if you have, depending on the circumstances.

The unpleasantness of this situation kind of underscores why you should play to eliminate on 4th, when it is a lot cheaper to do so.