How much variance in limit 5CD?

[Abrams]

I’ve heard many people say that the variance in limit draw is less than any other game. But what does that mean in actual play?

I just finished playing a session of $1 / $2 limit draw where I bought in for $60 and slowly lost it all. It seemed as if one of two things would happen nearly every time: either (1) my good hand would run into a better hand. That is I would have pre-draw KK66x and the next guy behind me would have JJJxx pre-draw. I would get 888xx pre-draw, and the next guy would have a pat hand. I would have AAxxx on the button, which figures to be the best hand against only the blinds, and one of the blinds would have 2 pair. Or (2) I would have the better hand pre-draw and if I was called I would be out-drawn on. I never limp into a pot (Unless I am in the small blind, there are two or more callers to my right and I have a decent but not great hand that I am hoping will improve.) so its not like I am giving people a free chance to draw out.

(It might also be worth noting that I only bluffed twice the entire session. The first time I bluffed was early in the session. A player limped under the gun (which my notes on him said he would do with big pairs and maybe even some 2 pair hands). I was on the button with 88xxx. The plan was to fold, but I miss-clicked and raised. The blinds folded. The UTG player called and drew 3. I drew 3 not improving. He checked and I bet, figuring what the hell I might as well continue the bluff trying to represent AA that either drew trips or 2 pair. He called and I lost the hand and gained a good image as a maniac (which is great if my freaking hands would hold up). The other time was a dumb move I normally would never make, but it was near the last hand and I was basically done. I was steaming after loosing almost my entire buy-in and it was the one deviation from my normal play. Aside from these two dumb plays, ever other loss was one of the two above situations.

So here’s the question: with the low variance in 5 card draw how often should one loose an entire buy in due primarily to bad luck? Is it something like 1 in 3 sessions, or something more like almost never (assuming you don’t just quit after loosing half your buy-in and walk away to go kick your dog or something – just kidding about the dog thing)? Several times earlier this week I would be playing $.5 / $1 limit 5CD, buy in for $30 and go down about a third or slightly more experiencing a run of the same unlucky above 2 situations. I would sit there and play forever until I got back up to even or a big bet or 2 ahead. (lower limit = noticeably more bad players with large calling ranges = more bad beats) One or two more bad beats and I could easily have been on the road to another loosing session. Right now it seems like there is less variance in NL hold’em cash games.

Edit: BTW: Is there some secret to sending private messages to others? I have now sent 3. The screen says it was successfully sent. Later I will go to my page where you can view private messages and it says I have sent 0 private messages. What gives?

[forhasta]

It seems as if you had some bad luck. If you have strong hands and get re-raised by slightly better ones, there is often little you can do. You may be losing money for the two most obvious reasons - 1. you're not betting when youre ahead, 2. youre not folding when behind. it takes time to work this out. There have been previous threads on variance, but I dont find the variance in draw to be that huge.

[Big Limpin]

Did you play all on the same table, or move around a little?
It could be you were unlucky and found a fish-less table.

Diagnosis:
30% you were on a tough table
50% big hands not holding up/suckouts
20% normal mistakes that you make when you win too, but they are magnified when u run bad.

so its probably mostly varience, dont worry about it until you have consistent losing sessions. someone else will have your bad luck tomorrow and you'll recover it back.

yeah man, if you feel like you are only getting action from better hands, then just move tables right away.

[flafishy]

In my growing experience with limit 5CD, I've seen much steadier results than with Stud or Holdem or anything else. But that doesn't mean there is no variance or you don't have swings, good and bad. I guess what I'm saying is that my results have seemed to level out much sooner than I've ever seen with any other game. The graph has a couple of big moves up and down in the beginning but has settled into pretty much a straight line.

[THEjDonk]

I had a similar experience when I started playing. I won some small amounts the first couple of times, and lost a huge chunk of cash on the ninth or tenth session. I can't really say with 100% certainty that I'm a winning player just because I won my first eight or nine sessions. I think I was trying to manufacture a winning streak. That means to quit if I'm a little bit ahead, and if I'm behind I keep playing until I get ahead.

I did not think that I played against especially good players in my losing session, but I probably lost a little bit due to tilt. I also think there were a couple of over-aggressive players. I guess that the variance gets a little higher when you play against aggressive opponents than against passive opponents.

[stripsqueez]

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pretty much a straight line

[/ QUOTE ]

AKA limit draw doesnt have variance

in any event you need an urgent injection of credibility posting your 30 big bet downswing

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[flafishy]

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[ QUOTE ]
pretty much a straight line

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AKA limit draw doesnt have variance

in any event you need an urgent injection of credibility posting your 30 big bet downswing

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

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What???? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Big Limpin]

I have lose 30 big bets before.
Inject me with credit.

[stripsqueez]

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What???? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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i dont like explaining myself because i arrogantly think i express myself well

variance at limit draw is a common topic in this forum - it came up on 30/12/06 when i posted this...

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i can say there is no variance in draw because i (like several of you who seem to have forgotten) have played lots of some other game and experienced much worse swings

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to which you replied this...

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That is a ridiculous statement. Just because you might not have experienced a downswing in draw since you started playing six weeks ago doesn't mean there is no variance

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now your position is this...

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In my growing experience with limit 5CD, I've seen much steadier results than with Stud or Holdem or anything else. But that doesn't mean there is no variance or you don't have swings, good and bad. I guess what I'm saying is that my results have seemed to level out much sooner than I've ever seen with any other game. The graph has a couple of big moves up and down in the beginning but has settled into pretty much a straight line

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persoanlly i hate it when people explain the obvious to me so i wont do that

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Murakawa]

60 Big Blind Bare Minimum bankroll.