What if situation...

[Alan3]

This is a "what if" hand. I have changed some earlier actions in an actual hand to see how it would have affected later actions. I was not the Hero in this hand, but I would like to know what you think the Hero should have done in this situation. I'll post the results of this hand in a few days. I'll also post the original hand so you can see how the change affected the actions.

I'm posting this on my blog and on the Poker Academy forums too. I think it will be interesting to compare the quality of answers.

NLHE ring game
V3 posts small blind 0.5
V4 posts big blind 1
V5 calls 1
V1 raises to 10
V2 calls 10
Hero calls 10
V3 calls 9.5
V4 calls 9
V5 calls 9

Pot is now 60 bets

FLOP: 8d 9d 2c
V3 bets 10 offering 6:1 odds
V4 folds
V5 calls 10 with 7:1 odds
V1 calls 10 with 8:1 odds
V2 calls 10 with 9:1 odds

The pot is 100 bets.

Hero is being offered 10:1 odds with a set of twos.
V1 has a stack of 230 bets.
V2 has a stack of 27 bets.
Hero has a stack of 110 bets.
V3 has a stack of 66 bets.
V5 has a stack of 295 bets.

What should the hero do and why?

[Tical]

Assuming that the pot is now 100 bets, and hero has 110 bets left, hero should push.

Hero's push is roughly the size of the pot, so it's not going to chase away all the action, and it makes players on the two draws pay for it.

Hopefully nobody is rope-a-doping with a higher set.

[Alan3]

Only one answer... hmmm... I am new here. I guess I don't really expect much.

Here is my take. I am going to pretend I am the Hero and use first person.

I am going to assume that I am ahead here. There is the chance of an overset, but I don't think you can worry about that.

You only win money in poker when your opponent makes a mistake. I am also going to assume that one of the villains is on a flush draw. Does pushing offer bad enough odds that chasing the flush is a mistake?

I have one diamond, so there are only eight diamonds left in the deck. None of those diamonds can pair the board so I have to count all eight.

On the turn, the villain has 8/47 chance to flush. If he hits then I have 11 outs to improve on the river. If he misses then he loses an out since one of his diamonds will pair the board. On a miss he has 7/46 chance to win.

His total chance to win the hand (using information I know) is:
(8/47)*(35/46) + (39/47)*(7/46) = 25.6% or 2.9:1 odds.

But he will likely think his odds are closer to 2:1. This sounds like a great time to offer an opportunity to make a mistake.

But what about the other players? V3 offered 6:1 odds on the flop. What the hell does that mean? If it is a slow play with a strong hand (two pair or a set) then it is an extremely bad play. If it is a weak bet with a weak hand, then it is an extremely bad play. If V3 is playing badly, he will probably call my bet and improve the odds for the later players.

The other players called with incredible odds. I have no way of knowing what they have. V2 nearly had the odds to chase a gutshot.

Suppose I push:
Hero raises 100 (call 10+raise) to offer 2.1:1 odds.
Assume V3 calls 66 all-in with 2.7:1 odds (creates a side pot)
V5 has to call 100 at 2.7:1. That is enough for someone on a flush draw, and pretty close to what I know his actual odds are. If V5 or V1 is on the flush draw then they are going to call -- which I don't really want.
Let's assume that between V5 and V1, one of them calls.
Now the pot is 376. V2 only has 27 bets left. He has to bet 27 to win 191. He has odds to chase a straight draw. He calls.

I don't see enough mistakes here to make pushing the correct move.

What if I simply call and see if the turn is scary? I am going to assume that V3 is going to make another bone headed bet offering great odds to flush draws so I likely won't be able to offer my opponents bad odds next betting round either. If V3 pushes on the turn, he will be offering 2.6:1 odds which hopefully will be enough to chase out flushes. I can only hope.

Hero should call and hope for the best.

What did the villains have?
V1: AdQd
V2: 7sTs
Hero: 2h2d
V3: 8c8s
V4: ??
V5: ??

Turn: Td
River: 4s

By calling, Hero is able to escape the overset when the scary diamond hit the board. I can't guess what the betting would have looked like after this point. V1 wins with the ace high flush unless V5 had the straight flush.

I was V1 in this hand. In reality I only raised 3.5 bets preflop. V3 did offer 6:1 odds on the flop, but Hero correctly ruined my flush draw by re-raising the pot on the flop. I discussed this hand with others. One person suggested that I shouldn't have raised with AQs in my position. Another suggested I should have raised more. So I ran this little experiment to see what might have happened had I overbet.

Here is my reasoning on the play I posted with the change.
V5 limps UTG. Meaningless. Happens all the time at this table.
V1 wants his AQs to be up against only one or two hands. Overbets.
V2 called 3.5 raise with T7s. Why not a 9 raise.
Hero is looking for the implied odds if he sets. He needs 7.5:1 and is already getting 2.2:1. Plus he knows the callers after him will be getting better odds and will probably call too.
V3 is looking for the set too, but is getting 3.4:1. Call.
V4 is now looking at 4.6:1. Worth a shot in the dark.
V5 has 5.6:1. Heck, its only money.
Flop hits V3 hard. V3 is first to bet and decides to milk the unbeatable set and 6:1 odds (which is what was offered in the original hand). Everyone calls with great odds.

And we end up with a very tough decision by the Hero.

[mitsu1775]

with my stack and the amount in the pot this is a push. As long as nobody else has a higher set, then your in pretty good shape. say somebody makes a flush or straight on the turn, you will still have plenty of outs to fill up. your getting way too good of odds here to pass this up. I'm pushing just about every time this situation occurs....you'll be amazed at the trash that will call you, especially at .5/1NL.