Masters Futures (Golf)

henrix77 · #1 03-27-2007, 06:47 AM

Hey guys,

WSEX has Tiger at 37/40 right now...I'm relatively new to this, but wouldn't there be HUGE value right now in shorting this? This almost seems too good to be true.

And yes, I know it's Tiger. Yes, I know his record at the Masters. But, I don't know how one golfer can represent 40% of the market right now. Discuss.

NajdorfDefense · #2 03-27-2007, 10:25 AM

That's the market price, seems right to me. Tiger crushed Doral last week. He'll end up winning Augusta more than any other pro in history. It suits his game pretty well.

henrix77 · #3 03-27-2007, 10:37 AM

While I understand that he won last week (I disagree that he "crushed" it, he shot over par in the final round, and only won by 2 strokes), my contention is that in a field of 100-110 golfers (I believe this is what will start at Augusta this year), there's NO WAY you can give him 40% market value.

Is he the favorite? Sure. I'm just saying there's value there. Anyone else?

4Tay · #4 03-27-2007, 10:41 AM

Tiger's a beast. I wouldn't short Tiger, especially not at Augusta.

In his last 10 PGA starts, he won 8 times. That's an 80% win rate.

JupiterUWG · #5 03-27-2007, 11:33 AM

tiger is 7 to 5 at VIP....I'd say he's at least 50/50 to win....sounds ridiculous tho

coolmoedee · #6 03-27-2007, 11:39 AM

I think he is overpriced as well. He is the favorite, but Els, VJ, Sergio, and others are actually playing well right now, and then who knows what mickelson will do. There is no way he should be that favorite when you think about all the possibilities of other golfers having the tourney of their life, or close to it. I always throw 50 on tiger and then put 10 bucks on 6 other guys. If tiger win, you break even, if one of the other guys win, your up 100+

rush66 · #7 03-27-2007, 11:49 AM

My buddy made me a bet straight up risking 100 to win 100 that phil would finish better than tiger (I have tiger). Anyone else think he is retarded? Does anyone know something I dont?

Clarkmeister · #8 03-27-2007, 12:07 PM

There are two pretty attractive lines here in town.

Tiger +175 to win the masters seems good. Also, Phil at +300 to win at least one major this year also seems like good value.

coolmoedee · #9 03-27-2007, 12:32 PM

I would bet your friend as much as you can. There is maybe a 1% chance Mickelson finishes better than Tiger...can I bet him too?

whipsaw · #10 03-27-2007, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet your friend as much as you can. There is maybe a 1% chance Mickelson finishes better than Tiger...can I bet him too?

[/ QUOTE ]

1%?