Missing outs

[Xanthro]

I have a question about reads and whether it's wise to subtract outs based on that read. I'll use a hand from yesterday for an example.

I have Kc9c in the SB, after the flop there pot is $50 and the board is Ac4cTd. I bet $25, that's raised to $80 then a $240 push, then after a long pause a call, I have $150 behind and am covered by the first raiser who will call if I call.

So, it's $150 to win just over $600 and I'm 9 outs to the nut flush, so that's a call, but what could they have.

I haven't raise a pot like this OOP without top pair, so they likely assume I have at least TP, first raiser could have any piece, but the all in I can only put on either AT or 44. If 44 then I lose two outs because if the board pairs I still lose, and the second caller I can see only having ATo or 2c3c or QcJc. He'd call instantly with a set, and the latter two seem more likely, as he'd likely raise ATo. (High hand jack pots were in play so lots of suited connectors are played and not raised)

So, in the worst case two of my clubs are gone from one player, and another two because they pair the board, so my 9 outs become 5 and my odds to call become much worse.

Should I call here, or am I over thinking the hand?

[Bad Lobster]

Naah, your heart's in the right place but there's too much uncertainty to count them as more than partial negative outs. Their overall effect is lost in larger effects; I think the biggest is the chance you'll lose on the redraw.

Your chances are certainly less than 9 outs twice, but how much less is a WAG. 7.5 outs twice gives you a 30% chance of winning--all I can really conclude is that it looks like a close decision.

Does anyone have a good estimate for how many outs to subtract for the redraw?

[PantsOnFire]

In your scenario, I am betting that you are against a set. That means you need to beat a full house if you hit your draw.

So first off, your 10c is no longer an out. We're down to 8 outs, which is about 30%. The set has about a 25% chance of turning into a full house (this is off the top of my head). So I would take 1/4 off your 30% and go with 22.5%. I could be wrong, but I think if the other player also has a set, this doesn't affect anything. If someone has two pair, they also have 4 outs twice to a full house. I'd cut your percentage by another 5% to say 18%. But that other player could also have AK and could only runner, runner to beat a flush. So let's go back to a final at say 20%.

Now that some rough rounding and estimating, but I think I can do it at the table. At the very least, I wouldn't give this nut flush draw it's full credit of 9 outs or 35%.

Note: I mix up percentages and outs which I guess is a personal method of mine. This might look like jibberish to some and I apologize.