Making Deals at Final Tables

[LuckyLloyd]

Look, it all depends on the situation:

- What the effective stack sizes are;
- What percentage of chips in play everyone has;
- What the payout structure will be if it is played to a conclusion;
- Your perception of your abillity relative to your remaining opponents;


If you aren't an idiot - cutting deals should always be to your advantage because it is something most people suck at. Therefore, in a situation where there are varying stack sizes you should be able to work out your $ expectation on the basis of your current chipcount and negotiate a higher figure from the deal. Whenever you do this, you have done good.

Secondly, never underestimate the variance at the business end of tournaments and never overestimate your edge. Many tournaments will reach headsup with 20 - 60 BBs left in play. The less the number of blinds in play the more irrelevant who the best player is becomes. Unless your opponent is a weak tight muppet, it is unlikely that you are going to "outplay" him in a 10BB headsup match.

This is the thing about tournaments. As the disparity in the payouts for each step up the finishing ladder reach their highest points - the variance involved also reaches it's highest levels. The reality is that most players in big buyin live events will be improperly rolled for that game level - and if that is the case variance reduction is a valid concern. In some situations the players who reach the final three of a tournament with significant money at stake just won't play often enough to reach the "long run" where their variance will eventually even out. As such, if they can get a good deal - it is in their interests to take it.

Finally, I am strongly of the opinion that once you are knocked out of a tournament it is none of your [censored] business what happens to the remaining prizepool. If the final 6 want to chop it up and can agree then it is their perogative to do so. I sometimes shake my head at some of the deals people are willing to accept - but it is their right to decide what to do with the remaining money and good luck to them. Just remember that every time you see a bad deal being made you can be happy knowing that there are idiots out there who you can take advantage of.

[All_Inn_Aces]

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This is the thing about tournaments. As the disparity in the payouts for each step up the finishing ladder reach their highest points - the variance involved also reaches it's highest levels. The reality is that most players in big buyin live events will be improperly rolled for that game level - and if that is the case variance reduction is a valid concern.

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Exactly, in all the tournaments I have goen most of the way in (say top 5 finishes) it has came down to a tiny number of big bets, at least for a while. I mean 5-10. At this point most any loss you oculd absorb early in the game is devastating now. I wuold rather lose a little equity for a decrease in variance, bc I have a finite bankroll.

[MrHorace]

Lloyd,
You make some excellent points, particularly regarding the effective stack sizes with the blinds so high, and overestimating any edge you 'think' you may have.
I think the big issue is knowing what a good deal is. Is there any simple procedure that will enable one to quickly assess whether he's getting buggered or not?
edit: David's article I believes covers this question very nicely.