3 way FD

[Bruce D]

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i'm not folding the turn for 1 bet (getting 10:1!), especially since people can go nuts on the flop and then get a little more serious on the big bet street.

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If it gets raised and reraised with us sandwiched, do we bail then? We are getting 15:2 and we aren't completing the action.

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Do you know what the odds are of hitting your flush from the turn to the river?

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Again, this is what I am having problems with. We obviously have the odds to call for the draw, but if it gets 3bet and capped behind, its pretty gross. That coupled with we don't always have 9 outs makes me want to barf.

[fretelöo]

Well, here's the deal: On the turn, you are ~1:4 to hit your flush. So, since you need two willing idiots for excessive raising to take place, and since you obv. will not raise without good reason, you're 3ways on the turn. That's worst-case scenario, mind.

Thus, as you contribute 1/3 of the money but are only 1/5 to make your hand by the river, you actually lose money. Indeed. How much? Well 4* (1/3- 1/5) = 0.533333. So, if it get's capped, worst case scenario is, that you lose 0.5BB. That is the price for drawing to the river only, not including any money you make on the river. Also, not including the fact that your flush won't win always. So, let's say you win only every 4th hand when your flush hits and there was excessive raising on the turn (that's probably exceedingly generous, but still). That means, you lose not 0.5BB when the turn get's capped, but overall 1.5BB.

But what happens when you make your flush and your flush holds up. Do you expect your opponents just to drop dead when the third heart falls...

[elitegimp]

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I don't have the actual hand. It was from Stars and I haven't been ambitious enough to translate my HH's yet. Is there a way to have them saved automatically like with Party and FT?


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There is, but I'm nowhere near my Windows machine so I can't tell you exactly how ): I think it's on the "options" menu in the lobby (depending on how many beers I have between here and home, I'll come back tonight with the exact way.) I found the option after I realized the "email me my hand histories for the last week" didn't actually send them all my way.

[Brain]

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I don't have the actual hand. It was from Stars and I haven't been ambitious enough to translate my HH's yet. Is there a way to have them saved automatically like with Party and FT?

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Options->Instant Hand History Options

Check the top box to save them. I have mine saved in C:\Program Files\PokerStars\HandHistory\

[NIX]

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Do you know what the odds are of hitting your flush from the turn to the river?

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Again, this is what I am having problems with. We obviously have the odds to call for the draw, but if it gets 3bet and capped behind, its pretty gross. That coupled with we don't always have 9 outs makes me want to barf.

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I don't agree with your counting of the bets before, unless I'm missing something. But if it's 10:1 to you to call the first one, I think you have to call since as Tyler said, you don't know if people are gonna go crazy now that the bet is doubled. If you do call, and it gets raised and 3bet behind you, then I think you can worry about it getting capped. If it does get capped, you're getting about 18:3 or 6:1 (10 prior to your first turn action, 1 from your call, and 7 more bets the Villains will put in if it's capped). In that case, I'd probably suck it up and call although I wouldn't be overly happy with it. If the flop is more spread out that it doesn't make a full house from a reasonable hand, say a J44 board, I think it makes a call easier.

[Aaron W.]

Pot size analysis:

3 SB preflop
12 SB on the flop
Total = 15 SB = 7.5 BB.

Suppose you *KNEW* it was going to get capped on the turn even before you put a single bet in the pot.

Expected bets from villain on the turn: 8 BB
Total expected pot size: 15.5 BB
Amount you would have to put in the pot: 4 BB

Pot odds = 3.75:1

If you expect to get one bet from one villain on the river flush card, you would have better than 4:1 to call.

This means that (if all your outs are live) that you are getting proper odds to call. And if it doesn't get capped (and that you get zero bets on the river if you flush):

One bet: 9.5:1 <--- Good for as few as 4.5 outs
Two bets: 11.5:2 = 5.75:1 <--- Good for as few as 7 outs
Three bets: 13.5:3 = 4.5:1 <--- Good for as few as 8.5 outs.

Given just a couple bets of implied odds, you can lower the minimal number outs by 1-2 depending on the exact situation.

Also,

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Many times these two guys will get into a pissing match on the turn

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If this is the case, why do you have to assume that you're drawing dead to a better flush or a boat? Let them piss at each other, and then laugh when you suck out on the end and they pay you off. If one of them has a set, then you lose a couple outs (but you'll still do okay). If one of them has two pair, you lose a couple outs (but you'll still do okay).

There is absolutely no reason to assume that it's going to get capped and that you're in the worst case scenario. There's no way I would fold a flush draw to a single bet on the turn getting 8.5:1, even if I thought there would be lots more action.

[Bruce D]

Ok. Thanks. I agree with everyone's assesment that one needs to call the turn bets.

So, I guess I could have been more to the point, but I wasn't really sure what I wanted to ask.

In a nut shell, what equity does a FD have against a set and trips? What about two sets? Obviously equity for a FD = 0 against a FH unless you have 2 outs for a st8fd and it equals zero for a higher flush.

I will pokerstove this when I get home.

[fretelöo]

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In a nut shell, what equity does a FD have against a set and trips? What about two sets? Obviously equity for a FD = 0 against a FH unless you have 2 outs for a st8fd and it equals zero for a higher flush.

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How many outs does a set have to a FH?

[Bruce D]

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In a nut shell, what equity does a FD have against a set and trips? What about two sets? Obviously equity for a FD = 0 against a FH unless you have 2 outs for a st8fd and it equals zero for a higher flush.

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How many outs does a set have to a FH?

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Well its kind of a trick question in that if you have a set and your opponent has a FH you had better have a FH as well otherwise you should ask for your money back :P

But if you are behind, you have one out to your quads.

[fretelöo]

That's not what I meant. How many outs does a set have to improve to a FH if the set suspects to be up against a made flush. That's your answer regarding the equity of the flush to set/trips.