PS .25/.50 BB

Bruce D · #1 08-13-2007, 12:46 AM

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 caps, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Do you play the flop the same?

If we thought we were up against a flush draw and or trips, is my play bad? Of course I would have had to have reads to think anything of the sort, but just hypothetically speaking. We have value in our raises against one with all the callers, but do have -ev even with the over callers if we are up against both? I could stove it but I haven't posted in a while and wanted to see what you guys thought.

Point Blank · #2 08-13-2007, 12:56 AM

i think with so many caller you have to assume someone has a flush draw 90% of the time ...

donk is ok to me (depending on the guys to my left) ... I don't 3bet though

OrigamiSensei · #3 08-13-2007, 01:29 AM

The first thing to do is to count your outs. Obviously you start from eight to your OESD and then you start discounting. In this hand there are three significant things that reduce your effective number of outs.

1) First we have to worry that with six opponents someone has a flush draw. We can calculate the odds of that. There are eleven outstanding diamonds. The odds of two of them being in one hand is 11/47*10/46 or 5%. The odds that nobody has a flush draw are .95^6 or 74%. I must admit I'm really surprised by that number and intuitively it feels like it should be more likely that someone has a flush draw. I suspect the fact that people are more likely to play suited cards makes the 74% estimate of safety somewhat higher than it should be. Nonetheless you can't count on a diamond ace or nine being good.
2) You have to worry about the possibility of full houses filling up by the end of the hand, making flushes and straights no good.
3) Lastly and perhaps most importantly with this many opponents there is a significant probability that more aces than usual are sitting in your opponent's hands and that means you may be drawing to only one or two aces. rather than the three non-diamond aces you're hoping for.

With all those factors working against you I feel like it's necessary to discount your outs to the range of four or five. Once you're down to four or five outs your equity derived via the rule of four is only in the 16-20% range, and I can't see enough equity advantage to make the flop 3-bet worthwhile. The flop donk may be okay but I don't think I do that, either. I just think there's better places to be doing your betting than this flop.

Bruce D · #4 08-13-2007, 02:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The first thing to do is to count your outs. Obviously you start from eight to your OESD and then you start discounting. In this hand there are three significant things that reduce your effective number of outs.

1) First we have to worry that with six opponents someone has a flush draw. We can calculate the odds of that. There are eleven outstanding diamonds. The odds of two of them being in one hand is 11/47*10/46 or 5%. The odds that nobody has a flush draw are .95^6 or 74%. I must admit I'm really surprised by that number and intuitively it feels like it should be more likely that someone has a flush draw. I suspect the fact that people are more likely to play suited cards makes the 74% estimate of safety somewhat higher than it should be. Nonetheless you can't count on a diamond ace or nine being good.
2) You have to worry about the possibility of full houses filling up by the end of the hand, making flushes and straights no good.
3) Lastly and perhaps most importantly with this many opponents there is a significant probability that more aces than usual are sitting in your opponent's hands and that means you may be drawing to only one or two aces. rather than the three non-diamond aces you're hoping for.

With all those factors working against you I feel like it's necessary to discount your outs to the range of four or five. Once you're down to four or five outs your equity derived via the rule of four is only in the 16-20% range, and I can't see enough equity advantage to make the flop 3-bet worthwhile. The flop donk may be okay but I don't think I do that, either. I just think there's better places to be doing your betting than this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like that analyis with the prob of someone having a fd on the flop. I am not discrediting anything, but just as we discount outs for a draw, we have to discount some of the combinations of flush holdings that people have, for example J6, K4 etc. But in general I like the way you attacked the problem.

I was really surprised to see the stoved numbers. I remember way back when, I gave myself a blanket policy to not pump an oesd with a fd showing. It had been so long since I had an opportunity to pump an oesd I forgot what it was like. This shows me why I haven't done it in so long. It could be that I have moved to 6 max a couple months ago, but I gotta get this bonus done

ThierryHenry · #5 08-13-2007, 01:06 AM

I would have just checked the flop, hope the CO bet and call to bring in the PF limpers. You have to think you are against a FD and at MP3 probably has at least 2 pair. I don't know how the equity works out, but with so many players paying 4 bets to see the turn it probably is slightly +EV.

ThierryHenry · #6 08-13-2007, 01:16 AM

I just plugged some numbers into pokerstove assuming you are up against a FD and top 2 pair and 3 other random hands and it shows your OESD as having 13% equity.

RemyXO · #7 08-13-2007, 01:32 AM

-= GRUNCH =-

Ugh ... two outs are gone, since the flop is two-suited.
6 clean outs to the nuts - you are 4:1 to win by the river. Well, discount by possible higher straights, boats, blah blah.
You you got 25% equity. And you are putting 18% in the pot (after one fold). Pumping all the way is fine, the edge is high enough.

Aaron W. · #8 08-13-2007, 02:08 AM

The flop 3-bet is bad. And if it's bad, it means you're losing money. While it may be true that you have an equity edge right now (I'm not at all convinced that this is the case), you're passing up on future odds if you hit a straight.

** Why don't I think you have an equity edge? Even though you have 6 outs to the nuts, you're almost always facing a flush redraw. This means that even if you hit your straight on the turn, you lose 20% of the time on the river. So if you had those 6 full outs for ~25% equity, you need to cut it back to account for your losses.

Then you consider the fact that when you get raised here, AK is high on the list of hands you're facing, meaning that you really only have 5 outs to start, which is only about 20% equity, which means your adjusted equity is probably around 16-18%

RemyXO · #9 08-13-2007, 02:11 AM

Yuk. Flush redraws. We don't have 4:1 to win.
Strike my previous post ...

Gib · #10 08-13-2007, 01:16 AM

With only a tainted OESD, I believe u put too many bets in here.