how i can calculate if a river call make or lose money ?.....

[andrix]

how i can calculate if a river call make or lose money ?
example:
at river i have higmidpair ,my play is check if i am first bettor and call unraised pot with 2 or less player.....
i want calculate if this my call on long term lose or make money,for this what formula i have to applicate ?
i have to considerer preflop-flop-turn-river cost ?
i have to considerer preflop-flop-turn-river money win ?

Formula:
Totalwins= TW (every preflop-flop-turn-river money win ?)
Opponent(s) spent money=OM
You spent money=SM

TW-(PreflopSM+PreflopOM+FlopSM+FlopOM+TurnSM+TurnOM+r iverOM+riverSM)
is correct this ?
anyone can help me ?

[Wolfram]

I don't understand your formula. When you're at the river, you don't take the action on previous streets into account to calculate expected value (except for adjusting villains range).

Let
E = The equity of your hand (%-chance that you'll win)
P = pot size (in big bets)

If you are on the river and it's one bet to you and you're closing the action you should call (you make money) as long as:

E * (P + 1) > 1

Example:
It's HU and you have a hand that can only beat a bluff (e.g. A-hi). Villain has been betting the whole way, but there were a lot of draws out on the flop, so he might have been semibluffing and be taking a final stab at it on the river.

Before the river the pot was 8 big bets. Villain bets on the river so you have to call 1 bet to win 9. If you figure that your equity is at least 10% you should call (i.e. he is bluffing at least 10% of the time) because 0.1 * (9 + 1) = 1.

Read Sklansky's "The Theory of Poker". I believe this kind of stuff is discussed extensively there.

[Gurravasa]

just estimate you breakeven point: 1/potsize = % you need to win to make a call break even.

I have no idea what your formula is about but the formula above is all you need.

[Gurravasa]

wolfram you should not use P+1 in your formula, you don´t win anything from the bet you put in when you call on river. Just use P and your formula is correct

[mute]

[ QUOTE ]
just estimate you breakeven point: 1/potsize = % you need to win to make a call break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect. Wolf is right, it's 1/potsize+1.

Look at it this way. If you are 10% to win then 9/10 times you will lose 1 bet, and 1/10 times you will win 9 bets.

[andrix]

for first thanks to all and please excuse me for bad english language....
Wolfram :thanks to you ,I now understand that "When you're at the river, you don't take the action on previous streets into account to calculate expected value"

example:

at river i call with higmidpair a single bet(1$) for 1000
times,
my total spent is 1000$

in this 1000 times i win 300 pot ,the sum of this 300 pot-win is 1200$
my total win is 1200$

formula:
monet spent for river call=RC
sum of pot win=PW
total is=PW-RC 200$

ok?
i think this is correct,you can confim ?

[mvoss]

andrix I think your post belongs in the beginners forum. It's kinda hard to figure out what you mean with your post but if you mean that you call a $1 bet in a $4 pot 1000 times and win 30% of the time you are not correct that you win $200. You lose $1 700 times and win $4 300 times, so your total win is 300*4-700*1=$500.

[mute]

[ QUOTE ]
for first thanks to all and please excuse me for bad english language....
Wolfram :thanks to you ,I now understand that "When you're at the river, you don't take the action on previous streets into account to calculate expected value"

example:

at river i call with higmidpair a single bet(1$) for 1000
times,
my total spent is 1000$

in this 1000 times i win 300 pot ,the sum of this 300 pot-win is 1200$
my total win is 1200$

formula:
monet spent for river call=RC
sum of pot win=PW
total is=PW-RC 200$

ok?
i think this is correct,you can confim ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite right since you don't "spend" 1000$ by calling the river. You get your money back when you win.

Here's a simpler way:

Potsize is 4 bets. You win 3/10 times and lose 7/10 times.

(3*4) - (7*1)/10 = 0.5 bets

So you win 0.5 bets by calling (or 500$ if you did it 1000 times).

EDIT: What mvoss said.

[andrix]

uhm....
in example i call for 1000 times 1$ ,total my spent is 1000$ ok ?
i win 300 pot for a total of 1200$
in this 1200$ there is 1000$ that i have spent in this,ok?
my gran total is my total win - my total spent ...is +200$....
why this formula is incorrect ?
please explain and thanks again ....

[mute]

Like I mentioned earlier, the 300 times you win the hand you get your 1$ back (as part of the pot you won).