The old notion of passing up marginal +ev spots in tournaments...

[pzhon]

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Look up the article on flipping in tournaments by Matt Matros.

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Interesting article, but the author assumes that there is added value in having the big stack, if you add 10% to the stack size acheived with 0.538 probability you are going to skew the answer in favour of "flipping".

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Jerrod Ankenman said, "... everyone realizes that you get to apply your super-duper skill to the second $10,000, too, right?" Do you not think the great player's skill is worth anything in the period between an early double up and a normal double up? This view would be unpopular and difficult to defend.

The smart question is how much more it is worth to double up early rather than to double up later. I believe Matt Matros overestimated the value slightly, but that is much better than assuming that you don't expect to accumulate chips after doubling up.

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But what is your TEV of the double up chip stack?

According to the article author, it´s not $20,000 but $22,000 to reflect a higher TEV and big stack benefits.


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No. Reread the article. Both your interpretation of the units and the explanation are wrong.

Let's try to push the frontiers of research in the right direction.

[pzhon]

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Read or re-read the Harrington Books, as this is wrong on so many levels. In a large MTT if you are constantly seeking out coinflips early on, your hourly rate is likely to be zero.

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This is not about a fair coinflip. This is about getting your money in as a 6:5 or 4:3 favorite, either giving you a valuable early double up, or the chance to start another tournament.

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Those chips are not $$$, they are equity in the tournament.

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Please don't assume that those who disagree are only making this trivial error.

I came to the 2+2 forums because I rediscovered the ICM. I posted some of the earliest hand analyses using the ICM in the STT forum. I have posted several original results about the ICM. Don't say I need to go read about the ICM.

You might normally accumulate chips playing beautiful, socially accepted small-ball poker. This does not imply that you should avoid a great opportunity to get your entire stack in as a significant favorite, while significantly decreasing the expected length of your tournament.

[pzhon]

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"Calling just has to lose less than about half of the value of getting to play another tournament."

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That was an offhand comment, and not as accurate as it could have been.

A better way to look at it is that you expect to save some time by calling, but it doesn't shorten the average tournament length by 50%. Folding might mean your expect to spend 30 more minutes playing. Calling and winning might mean you expect to play for 40 more minutes. Calling and losing means you expect to play for about 0 more minutes. If you win 54% of the time, then you have cut your expected playing time to about 22 minutes, saving 8 minutes, which can be used to play about 1/4 of another tournament, not 1/2 of another tournament. So, if these rough guesses are accurate, calling only has to lose less tournament equity than about 1/4 of your ROI to be +E$.

[El_Hombre_Grande]

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Read or re-read the Harrington Books, as this is wrong on so many levels. In a large MTT if you are constantly seeking out coinflips early on, your hourly rate is likely to be zero.

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This is not about a fair coinflip. This is about getting your money in as a 6:5 or 4:3 favorite, either giving you a valuable early double up, or the chance to start another tournament.

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Those chips are not $$$, they are equity in the tournament.

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Please don't assume that those who disagree are only making this trivial error.

I came to the 2+2 forums because I rediscovered the ICM. I posted some of the earliest hand analyses using the ICM in the STT forum. I have posted several original results about the ICM. Don't say I need to go read about the ICM.

You might normally accumulate chips playing beautiful, socially accepted small-ball poker. This does not imply that you should avoid a great opportunity to get your entire stack in as a significant favorite, while significantly decreasing the expected length of your tournament.

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I certainly wasn't speaking to you, or telling you to read anything. You can rest assured that none of my posts are directed to you. That being said, once you change the hypothetical to a situation in which we have a "significant" edge I would agree ---its time to put the chips in the middle if we can. But to me, there is a difference between "marginal" and your term "significant."

[RobNottsUk]

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But what is your TEV of the double up chip stack?

According to the article author, it´s not $20,000 but $22,000 to reflect a higher TEV and big stack benefits.


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No. Reread the article. Both your interpretation of the units and the explanation are wrong.

Let's try to push the frontiers of research in the right direction.

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Glossing over the authors argument, which is based on a "Winner Takes All" philosophy, rather than the true consequences of multi-payout MTT is a far greater inaccuracy.

As early on the value of stacks closer reflects their $ approximation, I think it´s fair to use the authors $22,000 figure in that way.

The true EV of flipping in that spot is 3% of stack due to cost of BI to next tourney when you bust out.

So the real question is whether your TEV is doubled by winning a flip, or whether it´s increased by less, or improved even more as that article author suggested.

[pzhon]

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As early on the value of stacks closer reflects their $ approximation, I think it´s fair to use the authors $22,000 figure in that way.

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It can be misleading when you are talking about someone with a high ROI, and when you are discussing the value of being able to enter another tournament. T20,000 now is worth much more than $20,000 to a great player. That's obvious, and not the subject of the discussion.

Matros suggested that T20,000 now is worth about the same as T22,000 later, at the time when the player normally doubles up or busts out. The advantage of a great player comes from winning chips over time. Doubling up now, instead of several levels from now, gives you more time to accumulate chips.

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The true EV of flipping in that spot is 3% of stack due to cost of BI to next tourney when you bust out.

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I have no idea how you got that figure. It disagrees with other calculations. I also don't know which of the several possible meanings of EV you are using.