Odds Question(razZ)

[buzzard1881]

Can some mathematician tell me if I have odds to call here, and if not how big does the pot have to be to call here??

Razz ($30/$60), Ante $5, Bring-In $10 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.67 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (4.00 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.00 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

Total pot: (3.00 BB)

[RustyBrooks]

Well, you will improve your hand with any A, 3, 5, 6, 7 - we'll leave out 9s because your hand may or may not be better than his current hand. That's 25 outs. There are 39 unknown cards, so 25/39 of them will help you, and that's good. Let's call it 25/40 = 62.5%

However, a similar number helps your opponent. So

62% you improve
- 62% of these he redraws better (38.5% of total outcomes)
- 38% of the time you're now ahead, barely

38% of the time, you don't improve, in which case you must fold

So, 76% of the 6th st outcomes are bad for you, so about 25% are OK, meaning that you have 3:1 odds to improve better than your opponent. As such, this pot is giving you odds to call.

Even when you improve you'll lose this hand pretty often on the river, but that's life.

[iStackBooks]

Raise 3rd, fold 5th

[Sp00n]

There are often cases for not raising 3rd with relatively strong hands, but this is an absolute MUST raise.

[RustyBrooks]

Why fold 5th?

(But also, there's a larger question here - if 5th is a fold, how much money does the pot need to call)

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise 3rd, fold 5th

[/ QUOTE ]

[tinkerman]

Currently, what are your options. You need an ace, 3, 5, 6 or a 7 to improve. We have seen an ace go and as such you have 19 outs. There are currently, 41 unknown cards.

For you to catch good on 6th is 19/41= 46%. So you fold if you catch bad. Hence lose a BB 54% of the time.

To catch good on 7th your chances are 18/40 = 45%.

As an approximation, I assume he has the same odds for catching good on 6th and 7th. He'll made a made hand less than an 9 20% of the time and beat you when you catch good twice.

So you are making a made 8 20% of the time and will even lose this 20% of the time. So you win the pot plus (3BB)16% and lose 3BB 4%.

The next scenario is you catch good then bad. You will lose if he makes a good 9. Which he will make 70% of the time. Meaning you lose probably 2BB (maybe 3BB).

The final option is you catch good and bad and your opponent catches doesn't make his 9. Here I assume the expect return is half the pot since you'll win half and lose half of these situations.

Summarising the odds as follows:
54% of time lose 1BB
16% win pot plus 3BB
4% lose 3BB
18% lose 2BB
8% win half pot

This gives an expected return of 0.2 pot - 0.54BB so the pot needs to be 2.65BB to be neutral expectation.

This feels low to me, so maybe I have made a simple miss calculation. Can you spot it as I can't.

If this is right, then you should have called.

[RustyBrooks]

Do, right it's 19 outs not 24. I thought to myself, 5 cards, 25 outs, of course! But still it seems like a call to me.

[buzzard1881]

Is the excuse for raising so that you have control of the hand and can get your opponent to fold if he pairs? I dont know I've been having this philosophical battle with myself for a while with these kinds of hands, I just choose not to get that crazy with them early. Its a shock that I actually win at this game [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Spoon do you call 5th street? You can totally mind screw with me right here because I play with you and you can make me lose money!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]