deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold?

[creedofhubris]

simple question: take this hand to the felt or not?

Villain is new to the site, seems like a TAG, have not seen him get out of line. He limps his weaker hands from MP. I have been playing aggressively, but I have not shown down any big bluffs.


stacks:

Hero has 4200, villain covers

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
9 players


Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 8s 8d
3 folds, MP2 raises to $70, 2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: as 8c qd ($170, 2 players)
MP2 bets $125, Hero raises to $320, MP2 calls.

Turn: 3c ($810, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $600, MP2 raises to $1800

[bmxicle]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

660 games 0.005 secs 132,000 games/sec

Board: As 8c Qd 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.9091 % 45.91% 00.00% { AA, QQ, AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 54.0909 % 54.09% 00.00% { 8d8s }

You have equity if this is his range, but i doubt he does this raise with anything but AcQc+. Maybe this is a big bluff every once in a while but, i'd still be inclined to fold, though folding bottom set is hard to do in theory and even hard to do in practise.

[BluffTHIS!]

He has more ways to have AQ/AK than AA/QQ (or could possibly have the case 8 with an A), but he probably doesn't put you on playing a set fast on the flop either. Which means AK trying to get rid of a split would often by played like that OOP by some players, as well as AQ. So I would call and then either call or push the river. But I would never call that turn checkraise if I ever intended to fold the river.

[Boredom]

[ QUOTE ]
He has more ways to have AQ/AK than AA/QQ (or could possibly have the case 8 with an A), but he probably doesn't put you on playing a set fast on the flop either. Which means AK trying to get rid of a split would often by played like that OOP by some players, as well as AQ. So I would call and then either call or push the river. But I would never call that turn checkraise if I ever intended to fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is A8s unlikely enough for a TAG to raise in MP to disregard here? Also, shouldn't AK be included as part of his range? Where is he folding AK? Probably not on the flop, does AK just call the turn definitely?

*Edit* I know you are saying AK IS part of his range, BluffThis, this is just more for the above range poster.

[AZK]

i think this hand range is too narrow, why can't he have JTcc here?

[DJ Sensei]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this hand range is too narrow, why can't he have JTcc here?

[/ QUOTE ]

With fairly deep stacks, I think he could quite possibly have two paint clubs here. However, hero has certainly shown a lot of strength in the hand so far, so I'm not sure villain would C/R the turn with just a big draw here, knowing he could face a 3-bet push and be stuck in the pot.

Depends on villain's perception of hero's range here, I think.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this hand range is too narrow, why can't he have JTcc here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is AcKc to be ruled out? I see this play at lower stakes with that hand all the time. Even against a very narrow range (the AQ/AA/AA pokerstove results earlier in the thread), folding would be a mistake.

[AZK]

this would be an awful way to play akcc unless you are playing against an opponent who is so tight he lays down bottom set [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[whitelime]

To think that he would do it with AcQc and not other AQ's is ridiculous.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
To think that he would do it with AcQc and not other AQ's is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not ridiculous, just silly.