Halloween WW - Costume Party (Game Thread)

[antidan444]

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I fail to see how this is worse than taking the line of just blindly lynching me.

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I don't have a huge issue with your post — there are certainly merits to lynching OH first — but lynching you would be far from a "blind" lynch. There's plenty of evidence that supports your lynch.

[clowntable]

Why should anyone belive nich's claim. A summary:
1) Would nich play seer like this?
Fact: He went after OH all game, he openly went after Pyramid
Conclusion: he could play like it as a level but from the nich seer games I remember he stays hidden, accumulates peeks, FPSs with false peeks etc
2) Would the wolves keep him alive, allow him to peek on?
Fact: He had two peeked wolves in a game were a nightkill can be blamed on many things later
Conclusion: Wolves are very likely to kill him or at least roleblock him (remember he claimed he got peeks every night)
3) Do the peeks make sense
- OH n0 is a good peek imo
- Pyramid, dunno I can see someone peeking him there
- MDD as the third peek: Nich says he didn't know he claimed vigilante. I don't think nich would play seer this sloppy, peeking someone without reading his posts first is kind of odd. There are some people on POG who claim MDD's wolf game is obvious and easy to spot. Don't know if nich is one of them but if he is the peek makes no sense.
Conclusion: The MDD peek does not make too much sense and it's a nice coincidence that MDD happens to be dead
4) Does the claim make sense in the setting of the game
Fact: Pictures have generally been hot females
Conclusion: dmk is way more likely to include the prototypical "naughty nun" than Whoopi Goldberg
Fact: Claim was originally "Whoopi Goldberg" and later changed to Whoopi the Nun once a logical inconsistancy was pointed out (Whoopi = makes no sense as seer + not a good costume)
Conclusion: Messed up claim. If your role is Whoopi the Nun, why not claim it like that straight away
Fact: Nun is claimed to be a seer role
Conclusion: It' possible but a nun would make way more sense as some angel/sanctuary kind of role
5) Does the reaction after the claim make sense
Fact: Nich wants to lynch OH right away claiming he could be some power wolf.
Conclusions: Seers may or may not get the complete role so he should maybe know the role already. His insistance on lynching OH over someone else is extremly unlike village nich. Especially since he has pointed out that "wolfs should settle this" in many past games
Fact: nich votes himself to convince people to vote off OH
Conclusion: Why would he belive that OH is a power wolf that is worth more than a seer. He said he'd die anyways as the seer but in a MM that's a pretty wild assumption
Fact: nich says the fact that there is no counterclaim proves he's the seer
Conclusion: He might want to draw out the real seer and this is very un-nich like

Probably missing a bunch but please discuss the points and tell me how this is a "belivable" claim. There's at least reasonable doubt and we should let the wolves settle this for us.

Nich, please give us your other reads in this game. assume for a second OH will not get voted off. Who would you want to see voted off, why?

[Our House]

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*** DMK ***
I request mod clarification on what happens if someone immune to lynch ends up with a majority of votes at sundown.

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Why don't you just ask him to c/p my PM? That would probably help you guys even more.

[antidan444]

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Fact: Pictures have generally been hot females
Conclusion: dmk is way more likely to include the prototypical "naughty nun" than Whoopi Goldberg
Fact: Claim was originally "Whoopi Goldberg" and later changed to Whoopi the Nun once a logical inconsistancy was pointed out (Whoopi = makes no sense as seer + not a good costume)

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I really think you do your argument a disservice with speculation of this sort. That's really weak.

The rest of it I have no issue with, as they are legitimate questions.

[JennFox]

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*** THIS POST IS DIRECTED AT ANYONE BUT CLOWN OR JENN ***

Then isn't the best course of action to lynch OH, and have me or whoever the consensus 2nd most likely wolf be the backup lynch?

Right there are a bunch of possibilities if we make OH the leading wagon:
1) OH is the HH, lynch transfers onto 2nd most likely wolf (probably me -.-) = <font color="green">consensus wolf suspect lynched</font>
2) OH is the HH, however lynch does not transfer and we have a no lynch = <font color="red">worst outcome, but Nich is proved to be a liar and likely wolf</font>
3) OH is a wolf = <font color="green">we lynch a wolf yay!</font>

(Side note: There is a fourth possibility that I discount which is OH and nichp both being neutrals. I just think it's too unlikely for the game to play out this way if that were the case. Nichp having pushed a Pyramid lynch and OH claiming a village role early is not how neutrals would play. Also there are likely less neutrals than villagers/wolves so conditional probability makes this possibility very low.)

Making OH the leading wagon instead of me means we lynch me anyway some of the time, get a sure wolf in OH another part of the time, or at least expose Nich to be a very wolfy liar in the worst case.

I fail to see how this is worse than taking the line of just blindly lynching me.

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1 question only.

if nich were a wolf and you were a villager, then WHY WONT NICH VOTE FOR YOU?????????

[antidan444]

DMK

Does the seer get complete info about the player he/she peeked, including all powers possessed?

[fmxda]

1) Yes seers SHOULD play it like this in a MM-type game where your life expectancy is 2-3 days on average.

2) Asking if the wolves would keep him alive is a weird question that can't be answered because so far NO seer has been killed.

3) Peeks are fine, I personally didn't know that MDD was a vigilante. Lots of people were saying retarded [censored], like eskimo, and the thread was blowing up so I can see nich missing it.

4) The claim doesnt really make too much sense in the context of the game. But Mario and Luigi and a TMNT don't really fit either. Coming up with Whoopi out of the blue makes it more believable than being a generic seer or "Nostradamus" or something.

5) OH's reaction after claim was wolfy as hell. Seers always want to lynch the wolves they peek, WTH is weird about that. A seer isn't going to negotiate with people who have hunches and incomplete information when they have a wolf in the hand.

Clowntable, response to my thoughts?

[Our House]

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DMK

Does the seer get complete info about the player he/she peeked, including all powers possessed?

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Why didn't I think of this before?

There's no Godfather role in this game! Nich, if you're the seer, what is my role name and what are my powers?

[dmk]

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DMK

Does the seer get complete info about the player he/she peeked, including all powers possessed?

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unknown

[dmk]

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*** DMK ***
I request mod clarification on what happens if someone immune to lynch ends up with a majority of votes at sundown.

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unknown