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  #41  
Old 11-29-2007, 12:02 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

I understand 70% for Baltimore is controversial (esp if Buffalo at 60%). Call it a matter of opinion. Before you lash out, do your own recalc and you will see even if you move each 5% it doesnt really do much to the calc price for the bet.
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  #42  
Old 11-29-2007, 12:18 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

the standard deviation on those and any other estimates is enormous as im sure you savy bettors understand...my strategy would be to try and single out 2 games / 5 remaining that I think Miami has a good chance of winning (>45%). if you can do that, then you can make this bet easily.
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  #43  
Old 11-29-2007, 12:30 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Chance to LOSE:
NYJ - 55% (I actually think its 65% but I dont want to cause an uproar given where the spread is)
BUF - 60%
BAL - 70%
NE - So much uncertainty depending who they start but to be conservative lets say 90%
CIN - 80%

[/ QUOTE ]

So they play a top 10 team in the NFL at home and its ~96% from the markets and you meanwhile think that its 90% for a piss poor MIA team? They could play this game in a middle school hallway and MIA would have less of a chance than PHI.
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  #44  
Old 11-29-2007, 12:44 PM
Rustjive Rustjive is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Chance to LOSE:
NYJ - 55% (I actually think its 65% but I dont want to cause an uproar given where the spread is)
BUF - 60%
BAL - 70%
NE - So much uncertainty depending who they start but to be conservative lets say 90%
CIN - 80%

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny numbers - you think Baltimore is a 6 point favorite in Miami? And likewise you'd take the Jets up to -4.5 in this game?
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  #45  
Old 11-29-2007, 12:52 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

i assume you are not realizing that brady may not start.

Are you telling me that right here right now I can bet Miami at 25:1 or so odds???

Please let me know where.

BTW, 25:1 is the inverse of 96% in case you arent following.
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  #46  
Old 11-29-2007, 12:59 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Rust:

like i said those % are so argumentative and the standard deviation from actual so high that to sit here trying to precisely calculate is a waste of time and I would contend fruitless.

I said if you think Miami has >45% chance to win any 2 of their remaining 5 games then you have to like this bet -500.

Ie the odds of losing two games as an even money shot is 1/4, the bet odds are like 1/6, so your basically on a freeroll for the other three games.
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  #47  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:04 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
i assume you are not realizing that brady may not start.

Are you telling me that right here right now I can bet Miami at 25:1 or so odds???

Please let me know where.

BTW, 25:1 is the inverse of 96% in case you arent following.

[/ QUOTE ]


How did I miss this? Gimme odds. I need to buy a new yacht.
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  #48  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:05 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

If you realized Brady may not start, why did you say 96% chance according to the market. I really dont understand. Instead of just twisting one comment to seem incorrect, why not just put thought behind it since I obviously have?
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  #49  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:27 PM
TooTallT TooTallT is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Instead of just twisting one comment to seem incorrect, why not just put thought behind it since I obviously have?


[/ QUOTE ]

The only question is where the lines for Miami games will be over the next 5 weeks. There's no way Baltimore would be a 6 pt favorite in Miami today, etc. If you really believe they will be, bet this prop and arb it on all Miami opponent moneylines.
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  #50  
Old 11-29-2007, 02:58 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
i assume you are not realizing that brady may not start.

Are you telling me that right here right now I can bet Miami at 25:1 or so odds???

Please let me know where.


[/ QUOTE ]

Right here.
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