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  #11  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:18 AM
domolm domolm is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Just for the irony i would love to see Miami beat NE to notch it's first win and conversly NE's first loss
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  #12  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:20 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Miami to win 1 game out of 5...They should be giving you odds.

Seriously, this is a horrible bet. Yes they play three junk teams in a row, two with home field, which is why I would entertain like -300 or -400. Your best hope is NE clinches and decides not to go for a perfect season and plays their second string.
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  #13  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:53 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

[ QUOTE ]
Miami to win 1 game out of 5...They should be giving you odds.

Seriously, this is a horrible bet. Yes they play three junk teams in a row, two with home field, which is why I would entertain like -300 or -400. Your best hope is NE clinches and decides not to go for a perfect season and plays their second string.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, they're home against the Jets, Ravens and Bengals, so I'm not convinced you know what you're talking about. The Dolphins are huge underdogs to go winless.
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  #14  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:28 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Three junk teams in a row, AKA look at their next 3 games: Jets (Home), Buffalo (Away), Baltimore (Home)
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  #15  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:31 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Further Cin is not a junk team and there must be validity to my point as I read the thread after I posted and now I'm seeing other posts indicating other sites offering far better prices.
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  #16  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:37 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Sorry, I thought you meant the teams they were playing had homefield. They're favorites against NY and most likely will be favorites against Baltimore.
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  #17  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:42 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

By fav you are obv ref to spreads < 3 pts because if Baltimore is getting 3 points against Miami, I am betting a large sum of money on the Ravens.
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  #18  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:54 PM
Yowserrrs Yowserrrs is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

And the first time Miami played the Jets when they had a RB and a QB, they lost by a field goal (they were trailing by 11 at end of 3rd)...Baltimore has a sick rush defense (just about all they have) and Miami loves to keep the ball out of Beck's hands. Baltimores offense is def improving since they got rid of the biggest jerkoff QB is history (I realize this is debatable). And then theres Buffalo which has similar strengths to Baltimore except Buffalo isnt playing for a draft pick so I doubt pride allows them to lose a home game to Miami in the final stretch.

In sum -700 is ridiculous, -300-400 is my sweet spot, -500 prob true odds.
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  #19  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:18 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Well if we agree that Miami is AT LEAST 50% to beat the Ravens and Jets, then that's 25% right there. That means they have to go 0-3 at the Bills and Pats, and home against the Bengals. For fun, we'll say the Pats game is an automatic loss. So they have to lose to both the Bills and Bengals >50% of the time for the -700 to be breakeven. Let's also say for the sake of argument that they are as likely to win either game. (This is a complete stretch since Cinci isn't that much better than Buffalo, but whatever). So they need to lose each game 70% of the time for your argument to work. Frankly, I don't think they lose either of these games 70% of the time.
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  #20  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:20 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Default Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop

Whoops, I was using the -700 for my argument, the numbers for the -500 that you claim is true odds are even more in my favor. They now have to lose the games against the Bills and Bengals 81% of the time each. There's no way they are even close to >81% to lose at Buffalo and home against the Bengals.
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