Two Plus Two Newer Archives What do line movements tell us?
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#1
11-16-2007, 02:14 PM
 Jazzy3113 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Mergers & Acquisitions Posts: 1,022
What do line movements tell us?

I know this is an elementary concept, but when arguing/debating with a co-worker today we both came to different conclusions.

My questions is this. As a line goes through its progession during the week, what exactly does the fluctuation tell you.
I just wanted to see people's opinions. Here are this weeks examples:

1. KC @ Indy: On Tuesday the line was Indy -14.5, it shifted to -15 for two days and now is back to -14.5

2. NWE went from -15.5 to -16 and has stagnated.

3. New Orleans started at +1 on Sunday and moved to +2 where it stayed there from Monday to Thursday. On Friday it moved back to +1.

4. Pitt went from -9 to -9.5

5.Phi went from -10 to -10.5 and back to -10.

6. Tenn keeps shifiting from +2 to +2.5

So what do these movements exactly show? We all know the inputs that go into making lines, but what do I need to take away from the fact that the Saints went from +1 to +2, stayed there for awhile and now are back to +1.
Is it all based on the amount of money that comes in? SImply the books hedging their bets? I am really interested in this particular line and just want to know if it means at first Houston got alot of cash, but then at +2 Cash shifted to NO. Sorry if this is too confusing.
#2
11-16-2007, 02:21 PM
 Rustjive Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 68
Re: What do line movements tell us?

Haven't looked at the public betting for the games, but as I've been able to discern, line movements -

- early, mirror action coming from sharps.
- after early line fluctuations, move gradually to balance action.
- if they stay still despite heavy action on one side (like on Detroit at Arizona last week), then the books like their position and that position is so +EV that they are willing to take all bets on that heavily imbalanced and square side.

Usually it's pretty easy to tell what is what from looking at the public betting. I'm probably missing a lot.
#3
11-16-2007, 02:30 PM
 Jazzy3113 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Mergers & Acquisitions Posts: 1,022
Re: What do line movements tell us?

Someone reply to me, seems pretty good.

#1 Reason -- Soft lines (the ones that move earliest, generally). Because I use a stats-based spreadsheet system, my lines are generally in line with what the sharps bet, so I usually know which way the line is going to move -- especially with totals.
#2 Reason -- Injury updates (when I see a line movement that at first baffles me a little bit, it's often because I don't have the latest injury information.)
#3 Reason -- When public perception is mostly aligned with the sharp perception. Even if there's not a ton of value in a certain line, per se, the number will often move for the obvious reason of the majority of the money coming in on the same side. The sharps, fearful that they're on the same side as the public in a marginal situation (though one sharps marginal could be another sharps' bread and butter -- i.e. he likes it more) will get their bets in early (as they're afraid of losing even a half point of value), inducing an earlier than usual line move.
#4 Reason: Teaser-blocking. This is often what's going on when you see lopsided juice on a non-key number that suddenly jumped from 7 to 9-10 in a short amount of time. The Steelers/Ravens game is a perfect example of this. The number opened up at 7, but quickly shot up to 9.5ish with lopsided juice. It's now at 10 at Bodog and 5Dimes at +115 and +110 Steeler juice. These two books are constantly shaking in their shorts; 5Dime lines will always tell you what teasers they're afraid of. If you like the dog, it's a good opportunity to put them in a teaser -- that eliminates the -130 juice they're hanging on them. It's like getting 2-3 free points on a teaser by going the opposite side of what they're afraid of.

Line movements that happen before kickoff are just a fuzzy combination of last minute bets and sharps playing middles, for the most part.
#4
11-16-2007, 02:30 PM
 rush66 Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Back home in CLEVELAND Posts: 874
Re: What do line movements tell us?

I can give what I think in general and then to some of these specifically. If a line moves from -9 to -9.5 for example it could just be that the books are getting to much action on the line, whether that be too much money or just too many wagers. I think its usually to much money. I think that is the case with NE and Pitt, they just feel more comfortable with the amount they are receiving at 16 rather than 15.5, though I dont know how much of a difference there really is. Now, when a line moves and then moves back it can mean several things, I think. Perhaps they didnt like the exposure they were getting at -10 and moved up to 10.5 but then some sharp hit 10.5 hard and theyd rather have him not on the game and except the exposure. That may be the case on KC/Indy. On Phi, I could be the book just testing the waters. If they think they can keep the same amount of action from the public at 10.5 or if its ok to move there without a sharp hitting it. If you see this move back down within a few minutes, it means someone hit it and the line may actually end up dropping below 10. As far as the shifting goes on Tenn, im not too sure. The wagering on this game looks pretty even so it could be them just trying to find the line that would get them even action. No clue though honestly.

NO/Hou is interesting to me. Hou is the sharp play for sure this week. Public is on NO and the line is steaming in houston's favor. If it kept steaming up to 2 or 3, that would mean the sharps are still crusing it. However, the fact that it moved back tells me that even though the majority of the sharps are on Hou, someone out there is putting a decent amount of money on NO at +2. I am actually pretty big on Hou, but I may hedge a little because of this.

Im sure others will chime in. This is just what I think even though I could be completely wrong, I hope it helps a little.
#5
11-16-2007, 02:35 PM
 rush66 Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Location: Back home in CLEVELAND Posts: 874
Re: What do line movements tell us?

I think your 4 reasons are also extremely good. Teaser blocking is a good one, though I think its pretty clear that bodog, being that they are a "square" book, attempt to punish their bettors with larger numbered favorite lines, like -10 instead of -9.5
#6
11-16-2007, 03:07 PM
 kyro Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Melting Sabrina Posts: 24,320
Re: What do line movements tell us?

rush,

I've heard bodog being referred to as a "square" book several times. What does this mean? Maybe that mostly squares bet there so they try to take advantage of their lack of knowledge?
#7
11-16-2007, 03:55 PM
 Jazzy3113 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Mergers & Acquisitions Posts: 1,022
Re: What do line movements tell us?

Im not sure if this is why they are a square book, but I removed my funds from them for a different reason.

The public/casual fan normally bets on the favorite and Bodog's lines seem to take this into account. The favorites lines are always like 1/2 to 1 pt off market value is seemed to me.

For example, this week I bet Bodog has Pitt and Green Bay -10.
#8
11-16-2007, 04:04 PM
 Webster Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Columbus WI Posts: 3,649
Re: What do line movements tell us?

Smart money moves lines early in the week (Monday) and late (Saturday). All other movements are typically because of square money and minor adjustments. Anytime you see a big move it's the smart money and it's too late!

Lines NORMALLY move in favor of the favs because most players don't have a clue how to pick underdogs!

The line movements you are interested in are pretty small. Nothing from 2.5 to 3 or anything like that.

Books are moving these to cover other lines that are going more then anticipated in the wrong direction.

The real question is as these lines move are you still paying the same -110 for them?

On a side note I'm not playing the game but my DVOA system (39-19 ATS this year - first real betting year)) is saying Houston by -1.5. and my Bridgejumper system (354-218 ATS since 1992) is also picking Houston but not enough to play.

I'd stay away!
#9
11-16-2007, 04:16 PM
 kyro Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: Melting Sabrina Posts: 24,320
Re: What do line movements tell us?

[ QUOTE ]
On a side note I'm not playing the game but my DVOA system (39-19 ATS this year - first real betting year)) is saying Houston by -1.5. and my Bridgejumper system (354-218 ATS since 1992) is also picking Houston but not enough to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if you got Houston PK (-110)? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
#10
11-16-2007, 04:23 PM
 Webster Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Columbus WI Posts: 3,649
Re: What do line movements tell us?

Houston pk is close. I have to have a 3 point difference in "my" line and the books line - otherwise it's a 50/50 bet.

Better then -1 though LOL! Thats why - people HATE to play those sides so the books have to adjust the REAL line so they get action.

In case you are wondering games I really like are
Balt +2.5
I sort of like KC but . . . . .
Miami +10.5??
NY Jets +9

Freaking scary games ay what? LOL

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