Common spot situation; bluff or not?

Hielko · #1 05-12-2006, 11:37 AM

Villain is unknow, just one orbit at the table. Haven't seen him out of line, play loose or play like a maniac.

Preflop handrange: TT+, AQs+
Flop handrange: TT+, AQs+
Turn handrange: AK and perhaps (!) JJ, but i think this is AK very very often.

Would you bet this river given your read? Will the average 2/4 opponent fold AK after the turn check enough to make this profitable?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (4.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero.....?

CrMenace · #2 05-12-2006, 11:43 AM

(grunch)
What hand range do you think he's put you on? You didn't c/r the flop, so is he really going to believe a river bluff?

I vote for c/f.

sambo · #3 05-12-2006, 11:58 AM

grunch

i'd bet and call this down to see what he had, although, i think you pegged it with big slick. a bet may win the hand or it may not. his check behind you on fourth street makes me think hes looking to lay the hand down but he might be deceving you w/ AQ. I'd say he has a high ace or a medium pair of some kind. except for AQ or maybe A10 i think a bet will make him fold espeically with a possible flush now on the board. If i was in his place i would put AK in your range of hands.
I would bet and end up calling if he raised. It would be a mistake but i'd be paying for information, not for the pot, at that point and i wouldnt be suprized if this was a split pot.

Xhad · #4 05-12-2006, 12:05 PM

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i'd bet and call this down to see what he had

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This is the single worst way to play the river that doesn't involve going to 3 or more bets.

sambo · #5 05-12-2006, 12:08 PM

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i'd bet and call this down to see what he had

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This is the single worst way to play the river that doesn't involve going to 3 or more bets.

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why?

edit: and what would you do?

Hielko · #6 05-12-2006, 12:12 PM

Because my hand here is (almost) _never_ good enough to win the pot. That's why i'm considering a bluff.

Fantam · #7 05-12-2006, 12:17 PM

I think that I would have preferred the river bluff if there had been 2 clubs on the flop, rather than one on the flop and one on the turn.

I dont know whether your opponent would fold AK to a river bet. Its too hard to tell.

However, just in passing, I think that if your opponent did have AK, that he should have bet the turn after you checked.

Fantam · #8 05-12-2006, 12:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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i'd bet and call this down to see what he had

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the single worst way to play the river that doesn't involve going to 3 or more bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

edit: and what would you do?

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I think that if you want to try a bluff, then you should bet/fold the river.

If you want to see a showdown, then check/call.

Otherwise check/fold, because you are most likely beaten.

bozlax · #9 05-12-2006, 12:22 PM

Responding blind: no, don't bluff.

After reading the post: Yep, don't bluff. HU bluffs don't work against micro players. Also, I don't know why you're trimming down his range just because he checked the turn...see the thread on inducing a river bluff for more information. The pot is small...he has to be holding and folding non-club AK here better than 20% of the time to make a bluff worth it. Check/fold.

Hielko · #10 05-12-2006, 07:17 PM

bozlax; on what hands do you put your opponents on a Q high flop when he 3bets preflop, bets the flop but checks the turn? For me, the only hand i can put him on is AK; but can he fold it? I know a lot of players like to take AK to showdown (certainly since i didn't show aggression in this hand), but if he indeed has AK and he fold it (for example) 33% of the time it would be +ev.

I did check the river this hand, but i seriously considered betting giving my read of AK. I'm still wonderding what the correct play is versus a random 2/4 opponent when we assume my (AK) read is correct +/- 80% of the time.