50NL - QQ in a possibly tough spot

[thing85]

Villain is 17/13/2.5 over 163 hands. I had a note on him from a hand where he called down with A-high (I think he had AKo). He seems to go too far with overcards.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $54.45
SB: $35.35
Hero (BB): $70.95
UTG: $14.95
CO: $48.60

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.75, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, BTN calls $6, SB folds

Flop: ($18) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14</font>, BTN calls $14

Turn: ($46) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero...?

When he calls my 3bet, I'm thinking he has TT-QQ (obviously QQ isn't likely), AK(s), or AQs. I think he 4bets with KK or AA.

His flop call doesn't narrow the range down too much, though I suspect he's raising with TT/JJ. The turn changes nothing really.

Do I get it all in now, crushing TT/JJ, folding AK/AQs, or losing to the possible (less likely) KK/AA? Do I CRAI? The pot is about the size of the rest of our effective stacks, so I can't see folding to anything at this point.

Help?

[Milky]

Just push here. I don't think you can check since if he has overs he'll just check behind. Plus, you said he goes too far w/overs and he may think you're bluffing the paired 8.

[marimba man]

CRAI is my default line here. Get some value out of AQ+. I doubt he'll take the free card with TT/JJ since the board is so drawy and he will want to protect from overcards on the river.

[buttonpusher]

You made a note about him calling down and going to far with overcards. I think since his he is checking these hands behind and still might call if you bet, combined with the likely calls from other PP's, that you should just bet out the pot.

[marimba man]

How many of you actually check behind with AK here?

Hero's line looks a lot like a bluff and we could be holding a very very wide range, note the textbook looking squeeze play preflop.

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
CRAI is my default line here. Get some value out of AQ+. I doubt he'll take the free card with TT/JJ since the board is so drawy and he will want to protect from overcards on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it unless you know villain is super aggro and thinks your check shows weakness (or if you've 3bet pf and c/f flop recently). Also, this line is particularly bad against this villain since he can't let go of overs. Your c/r will chase him away if he's beat but just betting out will get him to call (knowing the read we have).

[marimba man]

I doubt villains previous call down was for a full stack but whatever. You don't have to be superaggro to bet this turn with overs...

[Nick Royale]

Easy push.

[thing85]

Results oriented:

Turn: ($46) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $48.95 and is All-In</font>, BTN calls $32.45 and is All-In

River: ($110.90) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $110.90 Pot ($2 Rake)
BTN showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON $108.90 (+$54.45 NET)
Hero showed Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Queens and Eights) and LOST (-$54.45 NET)

Could we ever put this hand in his range, given his stats?

[iRunBad123]

don be resulted oriented u made the correct play