ALCS Props

thing85 · #1 10-12-2007, 10:08 AM

I only have one I'm looking at, but feel free to add more to this thread. On The Greek:

Will Indians or Red Sox win 3 straight games?

177 Yes +140
178 No -170

How is there not value on the no here? Is it really that likely that a team will win 3 straight? Obviously the divisional series made it look like it's common, but how often is it? I'll take the lazy seat here and see if any of our resident math guys wants to take a stab at estimating the fair odds on this prop. I'm not sure my square analysis will hold up.

MCS · #2 10-12-2007, 10:46 AM

My quick analysis is that there may be good value on the YES.

Let's assume initially that each game is an independent coin flip. Whoever wins G1 now has to win two in a row, which happens 25% of the time. The 75% of the time it doesn't happen, it is because the G1 loser won G2 or G3, and after whichever one they win, there's a 25% chance they'll win their next two.

So the yes is already up to (.25)+(.75)(.25) = 0.4375, which makes +140 a +EV bet, and we haven't even accounted for winning patterns like ABAAA or AABABBB.

It's probably worth doing this type of analysis if you assume that the teams are 55/45 or whatever, or maybe you could create some Excel simulations using predicted game lines.

This bet strikes me as a sucker prop bet where you can get good value on the side that looks instinctively horrible. Part of what makes it tricky is that when you read it you think about whether a specific team will win three in a row and it seems so unlikely. But someone is going to win game 1, and that team then just needs to win two in a row, which isn't so farfetched.

thing85 · #3 10-12-2007, 10:52 AM

Yeah, I figured I was wrong. Oh well, let's hope I run well.

MCS · #4 10-12-2007, 11:22 AM

You'll still probably win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BTW I just got +200 on the yes for $25 with a friend so GO WHOEVER WON THE PREVIOUS GAME!

centris · #5 10-12-2007, 11:44 AM

Wow, unless I am reading something wrong, you can get the same prop at 5dimes for:

YES +100
No -120.

For a nice arb

brendanb438 · #6 10-12-2007, 11:58 AM

Line has no value at the greek now. Someone arbed the hell out of it.

centris · #7 10-12-2007, 12:14 PM

Damn, according to my simulation a streak of three games by either team happens about 61% of the time. I used this post at Vegas Watch to calculate the chance of each team winning each game and then simulated it out. Surprising.

MCS · #8 10-12-2007, 03:36 PM

Wagered $25 to win $50! Wagered $6 to win $10! This is an excellent prop bet.

TomCowley · #9 10-12-2007, 03:42 PM

I wish I'd been able to hit the +140. As it was, I got in at +110, +100, and -105. Kelly's a bitch, but you have to believe.

+200 is sick sick sick, way to go.

NajdorfDefense · #10 10-12-2007, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I'd been able to hit the +140. As it was, I got in at +110, +100, and -105. Kelly's a bitch goddess of fortune and ez monies, but you have to believe.

+200 is sick sick sick, way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]