AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown

[jester710]

Ok, this is a hand that friend of mine played, and my cousin and I have been arguing as to what the best way to play it would be. Please ignore any decisions that were made during the hand, and give input only on the turn play.

$2/5 NL game. Villain is unknown with a 1k stack, Hero has him covered. Hero has AcAs UTG, raises to $25, five callers to flop. Flop is:

2h 2d 4c [pot is $127]

Hero bets out $100, gets folded around to Villain on the button who smooth calls. Turn is the 4d. What is the correct play to make on the turn?

[galahad_187]

villian is more likily to have a hand like 66 than a 4 or a 2. However, a bet may chase him off.

if you check he may bet, but probably only on the turn. this is a raised pot so either he has 3 pair or quads :P.

the best bet is toi probably c/r because you have the best hand, but i get too weak in spots like this, but i doubt i'd fold unless villian proves to me he has quads.

[DJ Sensei]

300 in the pot, a little under 900 left in the stack, and its a live game... I don't think I have a problem throwing mad chips in with aces on a 2244 board here. Checkraise doesnt work unless he bets the turn, I'm more inclined to keep firing value bets (and call raises, unless he has a good read otherwise). Make it $225 or $250 on the turn.

[Big_Jim]

Any reads? Reads would be good.

Bet $250 and call a raise v. unknown.

[wtfsvi]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a raised pot so either he has 3 pair or quads :P

[/ QUOTE ] Hero makes it 5bb utg and gets 5 callers. They don't all have pocket pairs or AK.

The turn play depends on who the villain is. Against unknown, I agree with BigJim.

[jester710]

No reads on this particular villain. A general note about the competition in this game, though: most of the players will get crazy when they have small stacks, but not with 1k+ chips. When they accumulate that many chips, they are usually very uncomfortable risking their stack.

I'm confused as to why you'd call a raise after a $250 bet on the turn; what could villain have that hero beats? Is he getting crazy with 66, or just bluffing? KK or other premium pairs would reraise PF with 4 people already in, no?

Also, assuming villain min-raises the 250 bet to 500 and hero calls, what's the plan for the river? Check-call?

[Big_Jim]

AA is the nuts, live.

People make crazy plays all the time, and will treat an overpair like the nuts, as well.

Obv, I am basing this off of my experience with other live games, and not this one.

[chipburner]

Its a clear value bet on the turn. His most likely holding is an overpair. If you check, he will likely bet small or check and thus you dont get value from your aces. He is likely to fold to a check raise too. Price him in all the way. So bet according to his stack size. If he had a 1k stack, a bet of 250 is tempting enough. He'll then be priced in for a river call. With very deep stacks, the decision is tricky and player dependent

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused as to why you'd call a raise after a $250 bet on the turn; what could villain have that hero beats? Is he getting crazy with 66, or just bluffing? KK or other premium pairs would reraise PF with 4 people already in, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

He got position so why would he raise turn with A2, A4, 44 or 22?

If we had a read on him as aggressive, isnt checkcalling turn and betting river a good move?

Against unknown, isnt betting almost pot on turn a bit to big if he got a medium pocketpair, which he often will have since KK and QQ often will rereaise preflop? Wouldnt something like $150 be a harder fold for TT?

[Kilillan]

Keep betting.

People think overpairs are the nuts, make him lose money with his 77.