TT in small blind with 25 people left in Tourny. what to do?

[dgm26]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 (t83724)
CO (t214895)
Button (t59385)
Hero (t99428)
BB (t61846)
UTG (t29307)
MP1 (t27827)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T.
2 folds</font>, MP2 raises to t10000</font>, 1 fold</font>, Button calls t10000,

fold? raise? how much to raise?

[flippetyflop]

I think a pass here is a bit too weak. If i was already in the money I would reraise all in.

If it was just before the bubble I am calling and reassess post flop.

[chh]

Folding is out of the question, you problably have the best hand.
Raising is essentially committing you to the Pot because if you do raise it up to 30-40k, both button and MP2 will have less then the pot remaining on the flop and you will have to practically go all-in with any 3. So anything other than an All-in raise it out as well.
Now there is about 25k in the pot already, and it costs you (worst case) 80k more to see all 5 cards. You can win 5k blinds + 2x10k + 73.724k more so ~100k, giving you 1.25 odds WHEN called by MP2. (If button calls you, you are getting 75k for 55k, giving you about 1.4-1, but we have to talk worst case here)

Looks like a shove might be profitable considering FE etc...

Anyone strongly favor calling?

[Larude]

Reraising allin is a littlebit tricky because I suspect MP2 or the button to call at which point you have a coinflip at best. Folding indeed would be to weak, I would call for setvalue and maybe I would call on the flop if action is low and the board is favorable. I am really in favor of calling, you have an M of 22, coinflipping would be to risky, besides chances are you are behind.

[JammyDodga]

I don't like flat calling at all here. You'd be playing a big pot with a fairly marginal hand after the flop, OOP against two or more players. That just feels like throwing chips away 9 out of 10 times.

I'm raising here for sure. What do people feel about a raise to 35k here? I think i prefer it slightly to an all in, where we could get called with AK/AQ giving him 5 cards to draw out on us.

A raise to 35k here puts alot of pressure on the other two player, and if the original players goes all in, I'm pretty sure he's got a higher pair and can fold.

There'll be 85k in the pot - he's putting me all in for 65 more - he needs to have AK here alot to make this a good call, and I think he has a higher pair pretty much 100%. If we fold we stil have a good stack. And the chance of them folding made the raise +EV i think.

If he flat calls our re-raise, I think his range is wider, 99+ AQ+, and we are ahead a bit more, and he's going to be pretty wary. I think im probably pushing any flop.

Here being OOP is actualy to our advantage as we get to move first against a big pot with hopefuly only one player in. This is different to if we called because an all in in the dark would be against more players, and for a smaller reward.

That said, the all in would be +EV as well here i think.

If money considerations are a big factor two, I think a fold isn't too bad, certainly better than a call.

Thoughts?

[chh]

well if you raise to 35 k you cannot fold anymore... if mp2 shoves you ll have to call 50k to win 100k, if button shoves you ll need to call 25 for 75k... which both are unfoldable.

Also, imo button will rarely ever fold here pf should mp2 fold for 25k more, he will most likely push here (since calling will commit him anyway) since his cold call shows a decent amount of strength.

[JammyDodga]

Hmm, I see your point, but...

I think button is probably fairly weak here, I think if he wanted to put all his chips in he probably would have done it already. I'd be very suprised if he calls a raise of any sort. So I kind of discounted him, that said, you are right, I'm calling a push from the button, not liking it, but getting the odds for it no matter what he has.

Against MP2, we'd have to call 50 more, to win a pot of 50+35+35+10+3+1.5 = 135

I think he is doing this with a Higher pair 90% of the time and AK 10%, we don't have the odds to call this against his range, as said, we need to eincrease his chance of having two pvers a lot here to make ita profitable call.

If he does push, it sucks and we've lost a fair few chips, but we win enough in all the other scenarios to make up for it. Also, stacks are pretty deep, so I think we should be making plays like this which get us the information we need to dodge higher pairs.

[chh]

No, you cannot fold anymore after your reraise.

Pot is as you said 35 + 35 + 10 + 5 + 50 more from him = 135
You need to call 50 more, which gives you odds of 2.6-1

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.052% 32.69% 01.36% 137694996 5741976.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 65.948% 64.58% 01.36% 272047836 5741976.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

which means you get WAY better odds than you need to call.
Therefore I think that if you want to raise, the only bet that makes sense is to move allin. Any non-AI raise will force you to call a push, and will also force you to open shove most any flop.

[JammyDodga]

You cant just pokerstove everything without thinking about it.

I think he is much less likely to push with AK here than a higher pair, in fact a raise that's not all in looks smuch scarier than an all in.

If you are just pokerstoving his range, your not adjusting for the chance that he folds/flat calls with AK way more often than he pushes.

[chh]

he will never flat call here with ak at all, since it would leave him pot committed anyway and you obv want to see either 0 or 5 cards with ak in this situation.
Also I cant see him fold AK in this spot a lot.