50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?

[Python49]

Well my original thoughts when looking at the hand was that I would just call the turn because I didn't think there was much value lost on the river regardless of what came if he had Q/set/two pair since I felt like this type of loose player would still stack off on a non diamond river with Qs/two pairs/sets and that by calling on the turn it gives you more value from his bluffs. The texture of this board though is actually a bit too high though for that because if a 3,6,8 comes... theres now 4 cards to a straight and alot of his range has to fold/give up. So the value lost from those scare cards hitting is bigger than the value gained from the % of the time he's bluffing on the turn and you allow him to bluff again on the river.

If this board were something like Q82 however with a 3 turn that made the flush i'd lean more towards calling because in that situation, a non diamond river I think he still stacks off with his sets/two pairs because theres not a 4 card straight out there now.

And in that situation, the questoin would be does the money we lose from a 4th diamond hitting on the river making him fold alot of his range, outweight the money we gain from him bluffing again on the river. And with this type of player with those stats, I think the value we gain from when he continues bluffing is more than what we lose from when it does hit and he folds because I still think this type of player calls sometimes with set/two pair when 4th diamond hits, or even might try to turn a hand like top pair Qs into a bluff.

Also theres a little bit of additional value that you actually get out of calling turn and non diamond hitting on river because he can also think you were drawing for the A high flush occasionally with the Ad or Kd and when it misses he might call you lighter on river with a hand like TT that he c/r'd turn to "find out where he was".

So on that type of board, his Qs/sets/two pairs still give similar to equal value on non diamond rivers and you allow him to bluff which I think this player does more frequently than others.

[ QUOTE ]
"You're not thinking this through completely. If a set calls a shove on the turn, he's making a mistake. If the board pairs and he gets it in on the river instead, he's not making a mistake. Even donks can get away from a set on a 4 diamond board. The idea is, you want his money to get in while you're ahead (obv) and you don't want to give him the opportunity to get away from his hand.
"

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're saying is true but that doesn't imply the other guy was incorrect. The idea that when the board pairs you lose anyway IS actually true like he said if you then begin to figure out how to get more value out of the rest of his range. For example if you assume that when he has a set/two pair he never folds and money goes in anyway, you can then start figuring out what might gain more value from the rest of his range. For example if you assume hsi range is just sets/two pair and the money gets all in on turn/river either way then that means the overall EV from when board pairs and he has two pair/set is the same... but if you now assume that by calling the turn you can gain more value from his bluffs, that would then make calling on the turn better.

The idea of just focusing on getting money in when you're ahead isn't always correct when it has adverse effects on the value you get from the rest of his range.

[thing85]

I think this really comes down to a mathematical EV problem because it's too close to analyze qualitatively. There are several variable we'd need to define, such as specific probabilities to the different parts of his range and the probability that he calls/raises/folds each piece of the range for the various actions I can take (and bet sizes). In the end, these would be estimates at best.

This fairly long discussion leads me to believe that the solution here is so close that either shoving on the turn or waiting until the river probably have similar expected values, so either move probably isn't too far off from the mathematically correct play. If someone wants to take a shot at estimating these %'s and coming up with a rough EV calculation for each play, that would be interesting to see.

Oh Pokey, where art thou...

[TX86s]

b4 i can do any sort of ev calculations... i wanna check if this sounds reasonable... btw... it's all very crude...

villain plays 39% of his hands... agreed he'll probably play less than that from bb... but i dunno how much less, so i'll stick with 39%. fair?

i'll assume he calls with any piece of the flop... so 1/3 times he'll call our flop bet... but the board is draw heavy, so lets say he continues abt 1/2 the time. fair?

k... on turn, i'm gonna assume his range is a flush, set or bluff. i'm groupin str8s and 2prs and other weak-reasonable hands as a bluff... i dunno how much he's gonna bluff here... but i'll say he bluffs with 1/3 of his hands here...

sm1 pls tell me if these assumptions are ok

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
With the strength of our hand I just see the rereaise on the turn from the villian as more of a tester rather than a show of monster strength.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not a bad analysis, but you're way off about the turn check-raise by villain. A turn check raise is a sign of big time strength. And what does the strength of our hand have to do with villain's actions on the turn? Nothing. It has everything to do with the strength of his hand. Let me ask you this...when was the last time you check-raised someone as a test to see where you stand? That is spew. We typically check-raise as a bluff if we think someone is weak, or we do it when we're very strong. In this particular hand, our Hero is most likely going to see villain with QQ or a smaller flush a very small percentage of the time.

[EMc]

Heres my calculation


There are 37 dollars in that pot. I want, 25 from the villain. Ill take that and anything else is gravy.

Another calculation:

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
riv play:

diamond hits - small value bet, say $25 and who knows if a set would call a shove on the turn they might call 25 on the riv. this is the only senario where real value is lost and with only 8 diamonds in the deck I'll take that chance.

board pairs - still way a head of alot of his range, but sure, could be crushed. Again if a set was calling a shove on the turn then we lost the hand regardless so what is everyone so upset about. I'm calling any bet after the board pairs which, unless it's all in then I probably saved a few buck from the turn shove. but whatever, calling on the turn commits to an all in on the riv.

no scare card hits: odds of getting at LEAST one more sizable bet or value town out of a worse hand is bascially a sure thing.

The real money maker by playing this line is that if the villian is bluffing you probably get another bet out of him on the riv 50+% of the time.

shoving the turn pushs out everything assuming the player is half resonable.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to look at stack sizes. Villain has us covered by roughly $22. If we get it in on the turn with a made hand we give villain the pot odds to call. He has already committed himself to the hand. Calling is not an option. Villain will call our last $25 on the river. If Hero had more in his stack re-raising villain might be an option. However, he started with $78 so shoving is the best play on the turn.

AC

[Python49]

[ QUOTE ]
when was the last time you check-raised someone as a test to see where you stand? That is spew.

[/ QUOTE ]
someone thats 39/20/5 i assume has no problem making spewtastic plays.

[Zaid_Ahmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Heres my calculation


There are 37 dollars in that pot. I want, 25 from the villain. Ill take that and anything else is gravy.

Another calculation:




[/ QUOTE ]

lol. can't argue with this. it is tempting to call in position but too many cards kill your river action.