First interesting bubble hand in a while

[Gramps]

I've been the VSS on the bubble, and big stack has been stealing 2/3 of the hands from the other two - not pushing it too much, and he's folded to me 1 or 2 times in my BB when I was very short, (last time pushing his SB when I had 2.5 BB total). I came over the top of him twice earlier big stack v. big stack 5-6 handed, but the 2nd time when he called I had QQ, so don't know if there's any lingering spite or anything. Nothing too unusual/tricky about him to note here I don't think.

FullTiltPoker Game #4084795583: $525 + $30 Sit & Go (Turbo) (31020058), Table 1 - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:45:59 ET - 2007/11/06
Seat 1: ojzknife (9,260)
Seat 2: LuckboxFromHell (460)
Seat 3: schmidty0 (55)
Seat 8: superbugsly (3,725)
ojzknife posts the small blind of 200
LuckboxFromHell posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LuckboxFromHell [2c 9h]
schmidty0 folds
superbugsly folds
ojzknife calls 200
LuckboxFromHell checks
*** FLOP *** [2d 7s 7c]
ojzknife bets 800
Hero??

It would be real easy, if not for the stack specifics of the next 1-2 hands...

[beserious]

I'm assuming no antes, b/c with antes it's instacall since schmidty has u covered next hand. If villain doesn't have you beat, you're around 71.5% favorite -- so let's say like a 68% favorite vs. random hand (didn't do this calc). If you call and win, you have 920 and sch. is all-in next hand, and u prob. come in 3rd.

If you fold, then it is interesting. Assuming big stack isolates you and sch, prob 2/3 on avg that schmidty bubbles next hand and u likely come in 3rd. If schmidty wins and u come in 2nd, then he's all-in again next hand (you have to fold), and he will have to survive another all-in. So to abstract details, it's prob 2/3 + (1/6)(1/2) = 0.75 schm. bubbles and u come in 3rd, prob 1/6 + (1/6)(1/2) = .25 u bubble schm. comes in 3rd. And even worse for him if it is somehow 4-way all-in.

So basically if you call the flop u bubble around 32%, and if you fold you bubble around 25%. Assuming you come in 3rd whenever you don't bubble, it looks like folding is best here.

[sean457j]

I think if you fold, ojzknife will fold the next hand so that the one after that he can gain an extra BB from superbugsly by shoving. I would fold and then hope schmidty loses one of the two coin flips.

[beserious]

Ignore my first line about the antes -- you have him covered either way, so same reasoning should apply. But I guess fultilt doesn't have antes, so not an issue anyway.

[lacky]

nits!

ok, sure, it's close, but, the chance at a higher finish by playing out the first hand makes it an easy call imho. If someone does a ton of math that shows it's a fold, I still call.

[eurythmech]

Call and win, we still only have a quarter of the stack size of the 2nd placed guy, and with no folding equity.
Can't see us calling here, tbh.

[jkpoker]

with that flop maybe call most likely would just depended on what i felt like doing at the time.

folding is most likely best course of auction i think