ALCS Props

[centris]

Here are two more props I like. After estimating the line for each game and then simulating the series out there there is small value in:

Series ends in 5 games +270 (good until +260)
Series does not end in game 7 -253 (good until -262)

Both at 5dimes.


Both of these assume they go Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzka, Wakefield, Beckett, Shilling, Matsuzka and Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Byrd, Sabathia, Carmona. If think either team will do otherwise this is pretty useless.

[crockpot]

if anyone has an account at BetOnline, they have this at +160 for the yes.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
I only have one I'm looking at, but feel free to add more to this thread. On The Greek:

Will Indians or Red Sox win 3 straight games?

177 Yes +140
178 No -170

How is there not value on the no here? Is it really that likely that a team will win 3 straight? Obviously the divisional series made it look like it's common, but how often is it? I'll take the lazy seat here and see if any of our resident math guys wants to take a stab at estimating the fair odds on this prop. I'm not sure my square analysis will hold up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet, my square logic failed me. Go -EV wagers!

[Thremp]

Shouldn't the yes be significantly favored when games are coinflips?

I'm too lazy to do the basic math out and don't know higher maths to figure it. Whatev.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't the yes be significantly favored when games are coinflips?

I'm too lazy to read the thread. Whatev.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't the yes be significantly favored when games are coinflips?

I'm too lazy to read the thread. Whatev.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Word. I just realized someone posted the answer. I did the mathament actually like 5 minutes after posting and got 19/32 for coinflips. Obv no sense in exerting myself too much.

Note: I didn't do the mathament. TomCowley explained a Fourier sequence to me, which still somewhat eludes me. But did help in this.

Note 2: Don't grunch my random thoughts in essentially completed threads.

Note 3: +EV bets do come up... I should possibly read and bet them.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't grunch my random thoughts in essentially completed threads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't mind me. I'm just bitchy that the over 10.5 I loaded up on in the live betting of the Cle/Bos game didn't cover after they had 10 runs in the 6th.

[MCS]

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Wagered $25 to win $50! Wagered $6 to win $10! This is an excellent prop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you math and Cleveland! Business class flight upgrade ftw!