TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting

[fun160]

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I was interested in any other reading I could find on Murray's background.

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Check out this article by Michael Kaplan from the May/June 2005 issue of Cigar Aficionado magazine.

[fun160]

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I haven't posted much the last few days because I'm not happy with using this model for interleague games. We run into the problem with either overvaluing NL pitching or undervaluing AL pitching when interleague teams play each other.

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Crockpot talked about this on his blog without really coming to a definitive conclusion.

[eternalnewbie]

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I was interested in any other reading I could find on Murray's background.

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Check out this article by Michael Kaplan from the May/June 2005 issue of Cigar Aficionado magazine.

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Good link. Thank you!

[TomG]

I would strongly suggest you Google search "DIPS Theory" and read every single article written on the subject (especially the stuff on The Hardball Times). I admit I was skeptical at first but I am now a true believer. It's a fascinating subject and IMO is extremely important to baseball handicapping. I'll be back posting picks again on Monday when this interleague nonsense is over. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[crockpot]

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I haven't posted much the last few days because I'm not happy with using this model for interleague games. We run into the problem with either overvaluing NL pitching or undervaluing AL pitching when interleague teams play each other.

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Crockpot talked about this on his blog without really coming to a definitive conclusion.

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yes, but the real question is not "can i estimate this with a high degree of accuracy" but rather "can i estimate this more accurately than the oddsmakers/market."

[ncboiler]

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I would strongly suggest you Google search "DIPS Theory" and read every single article written on the subject (especially the stuff on The Hardball Times). I admit I was skeptical at first but I am now a true believer. It's a fascinating subject and IMO is extremely important to baseball handicapping. I'll be back posting picks again on Monday when this interleague nonsense is over. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I'm sorry if the comment was not a reply to one of my comments. This thread is long and you didn't quote what you were responding to. However it did say RE: Ncboiler [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I've read a couple of articles neither of which support the theory that the pitcher has no control of the outcome of balls put in the play but I am definitely going to read a lot more about it.

Think about this:

Against some of the best left handed home run hitters many teams will play that hitter as dead pull and move the shortstop to the 1st base side of second base and play the 3rd baseman in the shortstop position. The outfield is typically pulled around to right field also. The success of this strategy is somewhat dependent on the pitchers ability to pitch to the position of the defense. If the pitcher misses and instead hits the strike zone low and away and the hitter dumps on into left field is the pitcher not partially responsible for the outcome?

Also when a pitcher hangs a pitch or pitches to the hitter's strength the hitter is more likely to make better contact. Better contact will result in harder hit balls. Harder hit balls must be hit closer to fielders to result in outs.

One last commnent/question: How much credit is given to the hitter on the outcome of balls put in play?

[DonnyKerabatsos]

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Think about this:

Against some of the best left handed home run hitters many teams will play that hitter as dead pull and move the shortstop to the 1st base side of second base and play the 3rd baseman in the shortstop position. The outfield is typically pulled around to right field also. The success of this strategy is somewhat dependent on the pitchers ability to pitch to the position of the defense. If the pitcher misses and instead hits the strike zone low and away and the hitter dumps on into left field is the pitcher not partially responsible for the outcome?

Also when a pitcher hangs a pitch or pitches to the hitter's strength the hitter is more likely to make better contact. Better contact will result in harder hit balls. Harder hit balls must be hit closer to fielders to result in outs.

One last commnent/question: How much credit is given to the hitter on the outcome of balls put in play?

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The key stat here is called BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which is calculated for pitchers using the formula (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR). All pitchers should have a BABIP around .290, which is strong evidence that the pitcher has very little control over the outcome of balls put in play. For example, here are the career BABIP of some pitchers with a lot of innings:

Roger Clemens .294
Greg Maddux .288
Pedro Martinez .287
Jamie Moyer .289
Randy Johnson .301
Kenny Rogers .297
Tim Wakefield .282

[ncboiler]

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[ QUOTE ]
Think about this:

Against some of the best left handed home run hitters many teams will play that hitter as dead pull and move the shortstop to the 1st base side of second base and play the 3rd baseman in the shortstop position. The outfield is typically pulled around to right field also. The success of this strategy is somewhat dependent on the pitchers ability to pitch to the position of the defense. If the pitcher misses and instead hits the strike zone low and away and the hitter dumps on into left field is the pitcher not partially responsible for the outcome?

Also when a pitcher hangs a pitch or pitches to the hitter's strength the hitter is more likely to make better contact. Better contact will result in harder hit balls. Harder hit balls must be hit closer to fielders to result in outs.

One last commnent/question: How much credit is given to the hitter on the outcome of balls put in play?

[/ QUOTE ]

The key stat here is called BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which is calculated for pitchers using the formula (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR). All pitchers should have a BABIP around .290, which is strong evidence that the pitcher has very little control over the outcome of balls put in play. For example, here are the career BABIP of some pitchers with a lot of innings:

Roger Clemens .294
Greg Maddux .288
Pedro Martinez .287
Jamie Moyer .289
Randy Johnson .301
Kenny Rogers .297
Tim Wakefield .282

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Here is a problem. All of these pitchers have had long careers because they are good so you would expect them to be fairly equal. Is it possible to look at all pitchers with a career ERA of let's say over 5 and compare that to pitchers with a career ERA of less than 3? Or maybe i just need to read more as this may have already been done.

[DonnyKerabatsos]

I had a hard time believing this could be true too, but the evidence is there. Here are some pitchers that are nowhere near as good as the ones I mentioned last time:

Shawn Chacon .282
Jamey Wright .302
Chan Ho Park .293
Paul Byrd .294
Brett Tomko .296

TomG - This is the type of stuff you are talking about with pitchers being at the mercy of luck and their defense, right? Also, just wanted to say keep up the good work. I'm anxious for this interleague nonsense to end so we can see some more of your picks.

[TomG]

ncboiler,

Start with

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...look-at-dips1/

and then read all of David Gassko's DIPS articles ending with the latest DIPS 3.0 research.

It might help to think of things this way... once a batter makes contact with the ball, it doesn't matter who threw it... the pitcher could be Johan Santana or Matt Chico. It doesn't matter once impact is made. So in that sense the pitcher isn't responsible for the hit because no other pitcher could have prevented it. This is a general statement and there are exceptions and conditions (for example, is there such a thing as a "flyball pitcher" or a "ground ball pitchers" and if so can they impact their BABIP?). It is a very in-depth topic and rather breaking it all down here I suggest you do some reading.