TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting - Page 23

ncboiler · #**221** 06-18-2007, 09:55 PM

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Greg Maddox did not strike out a lot of players in his prime

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LOL

you might be thinking of Greg Maddux of right now. please look at his historical stats if you still think this.

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Sorry. Bad example and spelling. But you get my point.

fun160 · #**222** 06-19-2007, 12:48 AM

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Greg Maddox [sic] did not strike out a lot of players in his prime.

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Maddux's prime was 1992-1995, when he won four consecutive Cy Young Awards. He finished third in the National League in strikeouts during each of those four years.

Maddux is currently third in career stikeouts among active pitchers behind Rocket and Johnson. He is 11th on the all-time career strikeout list.

fun160 · #**223** 06-19-2007, 12:50 AM

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I have not data to back this up but it seems like common sense.

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Using feelings instead of data is -EV.

ncboiler · #**224** 06-19-2007, 05:53 PM

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Greg Maddox [sic] did not strike out a lot of players in his prime.

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Maddux's prime was 1992-1995, when he won four consecutive Cy Young Awards. He finished third in the National League in strikeouts during each of those four years.

Maddux is currently third in career stikeouts among active pitchers behind Rocket and Johnson. He is 11th on the all-time career strikeout list.

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You can attribute much of this to longevity and the fact that he pitched a lot of innings per year in his prime.

ncboiler · #**225** 06-19-2007, 06:04 PM

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I have not data to back this up but it seems like common sense.

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Using feelings instead of data is -EV.

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Please show me data that proves that whether or not a ball put in play ends up as a hit is a function of only luck and fielding. I am always looking for ways to better my predicted runs formula.

Also: Kind of related. If balls put in play and them turning into hits is in fact a function of luck and fielding would it be reasonable to say that when a batter puts a ball in play it's outcome is also a function of luck and fielding?

Thanks in advance.

ncboiler · #**226** 06-19-2007, 06:14 PM

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I have not data to back this up but it seems like common sense.

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Using feelings instead of data is -EV.

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And using common sense is always +EV

fun160 · #**227** 06-20-2007, 01:58 PM

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I have not data to back this up but it seems like common sense.

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Using feelings instead of data is -EV.

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And using common sense is always +EV

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Except when in a counter-intuative situation, where a common sense approach will lead to worse conclusions/decisions, not better conclusions/decisions. There are many such examples in baseball.

ncboiler · #**228** 06-20-2007, 05:46 PM

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I have not data to back this up but it seems like common sense.

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Using feelings instead of data is -EV.

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And using common sense is always +EV

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Except when in a counter-intuative situation, where a common sense approach will lead to worse conclusions/decisions, not better conclusions/decisions. There are many such examples in baseball.

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Such as base hits being luck/fielding dependent?

fun160 · #**229** 06-21-2007, 04:45 PM

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I haven't posted much the last few days because I'm not happy with using this model for interleague games.

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Don't feel too bad. Michael Murray has been struggling as well: "The march through interleague hell continues. I could handle some 'bad luck' games where I made the right choice but didn't catch breaks; instead I'm getting pounded. I have to be flexible when playing interleague games because the power ratings don't have as much meaning when the two leagues are playing. The adjustments aren't working."

eternalnewbie · #**230** 06-21-2007, 05:36 PM

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I haven't posted much the last few days because I'm not happy with using this model for interleague games.

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Don't feel too bad. Michael Murray has been struggling as well: "The march through interleague hell continues. I could handle some 'bad luck' games where I made the right choice but didn't catch breaks; instead I'm getting pounded. I have to be flexible when playing interleague games because the power ratings don't have as much meaning when the two leagues are playing. The adjustments aren't working."

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I finally got around to ordering this book and am looking forward to digging into it when it comes. Wanted to see if anyone knows of any links to info on Murray? I've googled him and haven't found much, and wasn't able to find anything on his bettingbaseball.net blog either. From the info I've seen on his thread, it looks like the book will be great, but I was just interested in any other reading I could find on his background. Thx.