Botting the WNBA Season...

[fun160]

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Let me also add that, from my perspective, the point spread is a secondary. I'm much more concerned with the team's probability of winning. Once you've got this the point spread can be approximated fairly easily.

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Seems like you should be able to back into win probabilities using the point spread odds and money lines for the WNBA at Pinny.

[rjp]

I know how to evaluate the market. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm talking about from a prediction standpoint.

[fun160]

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I know how to evaluate the market. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm talking about from a prediction standpoint.

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The win probability is implied from the point spread prediction, no?

[rjp]

The win probability of the game is the no-vigorish money line price.

The win probability of the point spread can be similarly derived.

[fun160]

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I'd eventually like it to output a lot of different data, also in relation to the over/under, so I can determine where the best value is.

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Blue, you might be interested in The NBA Toolbox and Thin-Slicing the NBA by Michael Murray, author of Betting Baseball 2007.

[TomG]

Those are very good articles. There may be some noise translating those statistics from NBA to WNBA though...

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The NBA revolves around which team shoots bettor from the field. In lower levels, other factors like ball handling, free throw shooting or rebounding takes on a bigger role. But the pro game is still about shooting the ball.

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[rjp]

What you really want is Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver. He specifically talks about the WNBA and how it relates to general NBA statistics (such as adjustments made for possessions, although those stats are actually kept in the WNBA).

Also consider Hollinger's pro basketball prospectus from a couple of years ago (it's now online only and doesn't provide much detail about the stats). Mostly for NBA though.

Oh yeah, and neither of these guys bet games. 8)

[fun160]

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Those are very good articles. There may be some noise translating those statistics from NBA to WNBA though...

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The NBA revolves around which team shoots bettor from the field. In lower levels, other factors like ball handling, free throw shooting or rebounding takes on a bigger role. But the pro game is still about shooting the ball.

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The NBA shooting percentages range from 49.4% (Suns) to 43.8% (Pacers), while the WNBA's percentages range from 45.6% (Sparks) to 38.5% (Mystics). There are 18 NBA teams that had a better shooting percentage than the Sparks have to date.

[MrBlueNose]

Thanks for all the recent responses guys - I'll reply to them tomorrow - just wanted to get the picks up while I have a chance. Monarchs didn't cover, so at 6-4-0.

Wednesdays Games:

San Antonio -8 vs Minnesota: Prediction is San Antonio by 4, so Minnesota is the bet.

Connecticut -8 vs New York: Can't predict a winner, so New York is the pick here.

Houston +1.5 vs LA: Likes Los Angeles by 4 here.

Phoenix -10 vs Washington: Prediction is Phoenix by 9 points, in which case Washington is the pick.

Seattle +1.5 vs Detroit: Likes Detroit by 3.

Also, thanks to the literature links/mentions fun160 & rjp. That will really help when I move this to a serious level. My plan right now is to let this run to the end of June the way it is(with few, if any tweaks), then play around by adding in many more contributing factors to the results etc, mostly to get a lot more confident with the programming. Right now it's mostly an education for me. In August I may take it off the shelf, and work on past seasons of the WNBA where I can get more data inputted, more sample sizes, and a more accurate prediction. I dunno August is a long ways away - we'll just let it ride for now and see how it goes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] The main thing is that I am really enjoying this project, and look forward to taking it to a more serious level.

[MrBlueNose]

San Antonio -8 vs Minnesota: Prediction is San Antonio by 4, so Minnesota is the bet. <font color="red">WIN</font>
Connecticut -8 vs New York: Can't predict a winner, so New York is the pick here. <font color="red">WIN</font>
Houston +1.5 vs LA: Likes Los Angeles by 4 here. <font color="red">LOSS</font>
Phoenix -10 vs Washington: Prediction is Phoenix by 9 points, in which case Washington is the pick. <font color="red">WIN</font>
Seattle +1.5 vs Detroit: Likes Detroit by 3. <font color="red">WIN</font>

W/L record: 10-5-0 (66.7%)