10k SnG prop bet?

[Daddys_Visa]

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I would think highly versed ICM players would fare worse in such a bet, since most pure math players push too small of an edge on average to have a 20% roi. You would really need to play unorthodoxed to have a better chance of winning the bet.

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The problem is that there are a lot of good players in the 55s that he will have to play against. THEY will be using close to perfect ICM against him so I don't see how he could exploit them to any great extent. Even if he loosens his calling standards when they hit pushbot mode, the good grinders will just adjust their ranges in response.

Also, a lot of the 55s grinders grind the 109s and 215s as well, so if he can only achieve an 8% ROI at those limits I really don't see where he can make up the other 12% at the 55s.

The only way he can win this bet is by running hot for 1000 sngs (or collusion).

[skipperbob]

IMO 1000 SnG's is NOT a statistically-relevant sample. I think you need min=5,000.....During 2006 I had 2 months where I played > 800/mo. $55's with a neg.ROI and 4 months with > 800/mo. $55's with a positive ROI...in 2006 I played more than 6000 $55's with a small(+)ROI and I wouldn't bet ten cents that I could duplicate it over the next 1,000 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Apathy]

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IMO 1000 SnG's is NOT a statistically-relevant sample. I think you need min=5,000.....During 2006 I had 2 months where I played > 800/mo. $55's with a neg.ROI and 4 months with > 800/mo. $55's with a positive ROI...in 2006 I played more than 6000 $55's with a small(+)ROI and I wouldn't bet ten cents that I could duplicate it over the next 1,000 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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who cares its a prop bet! there can be lots of luck involved yay gambool!

I gave OP my AIM so hopefully i hear something from the dude who wants to take the bet.

[Slim Pickens]

This seems to come up every two months or so. In all cases, one of two things happens.

1) OP/prop bettor realizes he's about to make a hugely-unprofitable bet and attempts to weasel out of it by changing the terms. OP/prop bettor calls those who accept the original terms and balk at the new ones "pussies" or something similar. Response in kind... and so on.

2) OP/prop bettor are scammers and find a way to welsh on the bet.

I would definitely take this bet if it didn't smack of me not getting paid when I win.

[palman]

Well I imagine the terms will end up changing somewhat, as it all stemmed from simply one statement made.

Apathy, sign on to AIM now and we'll talk about it.

[Daleroxxu]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post10692352

[cha59]

In before lock/bannings?? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[DevinLake]

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post10692352

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