We interrupt the War on Terror to bring you this Second Cold War...

[bobman0330]

An ex-KGB spy and critic of the Putin regime was just assassinated in London. link He was poisoned with a rare radioactive heavy metal, which suggests to me pretty strongly that there was state involvement. This comes on the heels of the murder of dissident reporter Anna Politkovskaya, and more generally in the pattern of the assault on foreign NGOs, the war in Chechnya, and the political prosecution of Khodorkhovsky. Pretty ominous events.

Putin's second term, all the Russian constitution provides for, ends in 2008. Do we expect him to defy this limit, continue to wield power from behind the scenes, or fade away? If he does try to seize power, either openly or covertly, does anyone anticipate any effective resistance from Russia's political institutions? I'm fairly discouraged on this point, as part of Putin's program has been a systematic assault on competing centers of political, economic, and popular power. In addition, he remains quite popular. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, what, if anything, should the West do? Engagement? Containment? Nothing?

[John21]

You neglected to mention that Russia announced the shipment of SAM missles to China and Iran. This one might not be so cold.

[hmkpoker]

WE NEED TO HAVE A DRAFT <u>NOW</u> AND KILL THOSE REDS BEFORE THEY KILL US!!!!!!!!!!!

[lehighguy]

Putin's popularity doesn't seem to rest on antagonism to the west. I really don't see how he is a problem to us.

[MidGe]

[ QUOTE ]
He was poisoned with a rare radioactive heavy metal, which suggests to me pretty strongly that there was state involvement

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, guilty till proven innocent in some countries. I understand that it is not so in certain US facilities! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But to be a guilty as yourself in prejudging, this may be a helping hand from Putin to Bush, to detract attention to the large amount of face loss threatening the US in Iraq. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, what, if anything, should the West do? Engagement? Containment? Nothing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh! A preemptive strike seems to be the much safer option! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[QuadsOverQuads]

I think the most logical next step is to ask: "If this man was indeed poisoned, who did it and why?"

Is this Putin, trying to protect his power? I am skeptical that an ex-KGB guy like Putin wouldn't have known better than to make this so clearly detectable as a poisoning.

So, upon that grain of salt, I must ask a second question: is this someone outside of Putin's power group, trying to set Putin up and hang him in the world press? Among Putin's enemies, I suspect there are more than a few who are trained and practised at such matters. Give them the backing of a national security apparatus, and suddenly they have access to radioactive poisons, too.

I'm not offering the answer to these questions, but I think they should at least be asked. Motive and Opportunity are spread far and wide, as already evidenced by the PR games being played out across this man's grave.


q/q

[Poofler]

Putin won't defy his limit. Yes, he's very popular, and certainly not made less so by a government-owned television media. But he's not alone either. There are legions of men like him in politics, and parliament, that want to centralize power. Whoever the United Russia party backs, as must the media, will follow in Putin's footsteps; he doesn't need to stick aroud in front of the camera to retain influence and see his legacy furthered. Either way, there's nothng we can do to Russia that we don't already do to China; shake our fingers and make empty speeches.

[andyfox]

I have heard that Putin would rather be the CEO of Gazprom, which accounts for over 90% of Russia's natural gas production and is a monster. The amount of money that is be skimmed off the top must be incredible.

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
An ex-KGB spy and critic of the Putin regime was just assassinated in London. link He was poisoned with a rare radioactive heavy metal, which suggests to me pretty strongly that there was state involvement. This comes on the heels of the murder of dissident reporter Anna Politkovskaya, and more generally in the pattern of the assault on foreign NGOs, the war in Chechnya, and the political prosecution of Khodorkhovsky. Pretty ominous events.

Putin's second term, all the Russian constitution provides for, ends in 2008. Do we expect him to defy this limit, continue to wield power from behind the scenes, or fade away? If he does try to seize power, either openly or covertly, does anyone anticipate any effective resistance from Russia's political institutions? I'm fairly discouraged on this point, as part of Putin's program has been a systematic assault on competing centers of political, economic, and popular power. In addition, he remains quite popular. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, what, if anything, should the West do? Engagement? Containment? Nothing?

[/ QUOTE ]


What the West should do??? lol, the West is in the exact same situation themselves.

[bobman0330]

Andy &amp; Poofler,

The Gazprom angle is really interesting. The Russian government has been building up Gazprom through acquisitions in the last few years (failed merger with Rosneft, purchase of Sibneft, and a failed attempt to buy the assets of Yukos, all other big Russian energy cos.) Maybe Putin is building himself a nest to ease into after he leaves office? Gazprom is particularly important since so much of Russia's foreign influence rests on energy.

q/q,

It's true nothing's been conclusively established. I remember reading somewhere that Putin was hinting that the Politkovskaya murder was "the worst thing that could have happened for the government," because she had so little voice domestically, but is now a big deal. Even so, we know that Putin and his cronies are clamping down on domestic politics, and we know they're capable of fairly savage violence, as in Chechnya. Until some evidence appears, I'm perfectly comfortable concluding that the government was behind it.

Everyone else,

WTF is up with all these replies? How about putting a little thought into your posts?

Who cares about Russian politics? Are you seriously asking why it's important if a militarily powerful, nuclear-armed, energy-rich country of 150 million people slips back into despotism? Do you remember what happened last time Russia was ruled by an authoritarian regime?

The variations on the theme of "LOL STATISTS!" Come on guys, I expect better from you. Maybe a long-winded proof logically demonstrating, from first principles, that Putin's policies are the fault of Abraham Lincoln, or Rutherford B. Hayes. Or maybe links to a few podcasts, those are always useful.

MidGe, you're right. There hasn't even been a coroner's inquest yet, maybe it was accidental. Or perhaps a robbery gone bad or a jealous husband.