Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Flop

[curtains]

Well "most" of the time my plan is to just fold. If the turn helps me, it depends on a lot of factors as to what I'd do.

In either case I don't think it's that important to have a plan for the turn when you check the flop, as long as you think that betting the flop is -EV compared to checking, even if you plan to play very straightforwardly on the turn.

[Hotrod0823]

With a pot of 1950 and a stack of now 10900.

I would make a continuation bet of around 1/2 pot. If I get called I still have 2 overs, a back door straight and a back door flush draw.

I think a case can be made for checking through but I think I want this pot now.

[fnurt]

You should always have a plan, particularly on a message board where you have the luxury of unlimited planning! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

In an actual game situation I think we all hope to get to the point where this thought process happens almost unconsicously, much like a pool player knows how to set up his next couple shots.

My point was just that when you give a free card, you have to consider whether it will be awkward when someone bets into you. For example, if you pick up a draw to the nuts but you don't have enough pot odds to call a standard turn bet, then the free card was kinda pointless. In this case, since a raise is a plausible play on the turn when you pick up a draw, then the free card has real value and this factor should incline you to take it.

[curtains]

No I understand, its just that my decision to check was not a close one, so I don't feel like I have to start thinking this far ahead. You know what I mean?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I want this pot now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry for hammering this so strongly but I want to say this again: this is not a good flop. In terms of flops you like, it's somewhere between 'mediocre' and 'pretty bad'. Against two tough opponents that are capable of bluffing in addition to having hit it, the odds of your bet taking it down are small to minimal.

So the fact that you want it badly enough to dark tunnel bluff into it means you shouldn't have created it in the first place, but that if you had, anyway, you should also have had the discipline to forget all about it right now.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
I admire your aggressiveness, but this is only the 3rd level. I think it's great and it shows me you are a thinking player because you already have a plan in place for a c/r.
I think it's way too early to push with air trying to muscle
a seasoned pro like MJ and/or a tight player like the CO. I happily take a free card in this spot. I don't want to potentially risk my tournament on Ace high. On the turn if I
improve my hand I am in a much better position to outplay the opposition.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

It is never too early to bluff if the board is right. A good bluff here will increase our stack 40%. It is just way too easy to chk/raise this flop with air. Also, it is very understandable that you would go AI here with JJ/QQ especially because on a board like this, if you had those hands, you don't even know what the scare cards are. A 6,7,8,9,T,J,Q,K could all potentially sink your overpair and you would be forced to decide if (when one of those 30 cards hits) your opponent is bluffing for all of your chips. Indeed, I would play it this way with JJ - and that is the definition of a well-timed bluff - would you play it the same way with a legitimate holding.

CSC

We've all gone broke on big bluffs, but you can't let that scare you away from taking advantage of these opportunites.

[Hotrod0823]

[ QUOTE ]
Against two tough opponents that are capable of bluffing in addition to having hit it, the odds of your bet taking it down are small to minimal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I aggree it isn't a good flop for your hand but how is it for the overpair you are representing by betting?

What about this flop makes it better for your opponents?

By making a continuation bet aren't you representing at least a possiblity of an over pair?

I don't see how this flop could have helped the other's either.

Why do you think the continuation bet is "dark tunnel bluff"?

What do you do with AKs in this spot? Check that too??

[AJFenix]

You guys advocating a continuation bet and then stating how you can have this and that on the turn and how you want the pot now are being overly optimistic here as far as both actually getting to the turn not getting C/R'ed or taking the pot down in this spot. I don't want to bet and set myself up to get outplayed by MJ if im not taking CSCs line (which I'm not taking because it is deep stacked and I don't feel I have enough information to put my stack in the middle with air) because MJ thrives on spots like this, and you are just lining it up for him. Unless you are playing for all your chips here, which I personally wouldn't be doing with this little information and deep stacks, you should check.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's start with MJ: he is an experienced pro that can apparently play a deep stack game. Given the PF action so far I can basically reliably put him on about...two cards. Between the chance of him trapping, the chance that he hit this flop (which has some draws, missed half the stuff I'd raise with, and hit all of the QT, middle Broadway type coldcalling hands) somehow, and the chance that he's planning to CR me with air, I think I get popped by MJ alone close to half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I just made a post in the preflop thread about my read on MJ's play that maybe I should have stated up front. I've played with him in two large buyin events (this one and the 1500NL wsop). Both times he was to my direct left. He was the picture of solid pro. Think Dan Harrington vol. 1. Solid values for his position. Tight from the blinds and EP, selective vs. raises...

given the fact that he flat called preflop knowing that he was going to be OOP the whole time and he wasn't closing the action vs. a semi-scary open limp from the CO told me everything I needed to know about his hand. 22-JJ, AK, AQ. Possibly a random suited connector / bluffing hand if he had some read on me or the CO that I didn't know about.

In short, he either hit this flop hard, or whiffed.

[adanthar]

I'm not representing an overpair by half potting it, I'm representing a wayward sheep that's ripe for the shearing. Similarly, if you don't see how a T9x flop helped anyone, put them on a range.

The only way to rep an overpair here is to 3 bet the CR. I like CSC's thinking on that, but I wouldn't do it myself (maybe I should. hmm...), so I check.

And yes, there is no practical difference between AK and AJ in this situation, except that AK might have 1-2 additional turn outs where AJ is reverse dominated more.