Big chip leader at FT with 22 ($55 rby)

PrayingMantis · #1 08-09-2006, 04:38 AM

$55 rebuy final table. I have a huge stack and have been running over the table, raising 50% of hands or so from most positions. Most of the table is very weak tight at this point, rarely I'm getting played back at.

Villain was playing tight (against me) too, but my read on him is that he is a sophisticated player who can make moves, as opposed to most others here. He pretty much has to put me on something like any 2 at this point, But I have no doubt he has some sort of a good hand here, the question is how good it is on average, and does it worth it to make a call here getting a bit less than 1:1.6. Also my immidiate read on him is that he doesn't have very big pairs, but it can definitely be big aces and better pairs. This is of course an assessment and it might be wrong.

Few more considerations: I would say that he is probably the best player out of my opponents so there's value in knocking him out (but OTOH a danger in doubling him up). Another important thing is that I believe I can build back my stack rather easily to the same point even if I lose about 100K more in this hand.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t8000 with t400 antes (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t105254)
Hero (t597289)
MP1 (t40854)
CO (t90646)
Button (t133162)
SB (t117518)
BB (t117777)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG+1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to t24000, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button raises to t132762 (All-in), SB folds, BB folds

PrayingMantis · #2 08-09-2006, 11:02 AM

BUMP!

seke2 · #3 08-09-2006, 11:11 AM

Well, he's a really good size for a resteal with a pretty wide range here. You have to call 108k to win 175k or so, right?

For you to fold, his range has to be at least this tight:
Top 8% of hands or so, { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }

Especially if you can discount the possibility of big pairs, I think you probably have adequate pot odds to make it a +cEV call.

So it's probably +cEV to call, but due to the considerations you gave about not wanting to double this guy up and the fact that you are running over the weak tight table, and the potential risk showing down this hand would have on your image against the other short stacks, I dunno. Might be -$EV to call?

It's really close, and I could lean either way depending on how much gambol I had in me.

bingobongo · #4 08-09-2006, 11:12 AM

i would let it go.you own the table,he is the only worthy opponent you have,why give him the chance to double up and become dangerous? you can get him later with a better hand.right now you are at best on a coinflip.keep doing your thing and fold this one

PrayingMantis · #5 08-09-2006, 11:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
and the potential risk showing down this hand would have on your image against the other short stacks,

[/ QUOTE ]

They have to be complete idiots if they don't realize I'm raising almost anything now for a long time, so I'm not worried about my image and them seeing my hand. In fact, if I make some rather loose call to what might be a resteal this might make them even more scared of making moves at me, knowing I'm gonna make some marginal calls.

I agree with you that it's close of course... I'm asking whether it makes sense to fold in what could be a (marginal) +CEV spot when I have such a huge stack and can take the hit.

seke2 · #6 08-09-2006, 11:35 AM

Raising with anything vs. calling pushes for 130k with 22 is a BIG image difference. If you call this, I think it will make them more likely to try and resteal from you in the future since they know you will call loose. At least, it would do that for me. Maybe for someone who is tight and wants to move up pay levels, it could have the opposite effect. Good point.

Do you think the value of potentially knocking out this tough opponent is significant? Obviously, if you double him, that's bad, but if you eliminate him here, do you think that significant improves your chances of winning it all?

Hell of a spot, good hand to post.

woodguy · #7 08-09-2006, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Another important thing is that I believe I can build back my stack rather easily to the same point even if I lose about 100K more in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the case then call.

If you don't think that showing 22 will wake some of the others up it another good reason to call.

In your spot I find value in showing others I'm not afraid to play for their stacks with marginal hands. It really should wake them up to take a gamble with me, but often has the opposite effect.

You will be dominated often and I agree with the argument that its a pretty marginal spot, and villian has position on you if you double him up, but I like this gamble for the other reasons mentioned and you ability to get the chips back quickly as well as maintaining a decent lead if you lose.

Regards,
Woodguy

NoahSD · #8 08-09-2006, 12:23 PM

Nice posts, seke + woodguy. I would've never considered a call here.

bestcellar · #9 08-09-2006, 12:33 PM

I certainly would've never considered an open-raise of 22 to put myself in this spot....

but yeah, seems like an interesting problem in terms of EV.

seke2 · #10 08-09-2006, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I certainly would've never considered an open-raise of 22 to put myself in this spot....

but yeah, seems like an interesting problem in terms of EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I'm open raising any pair from any position on this stack size. Is that bad?