***Official July Fantasy Baseball Thread***

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
midseason brag / strategy update:

sold high on ordonez, have a bunch of great relief pitching, am running good with my starters and have been lucky to avoid major injuries.

i am looking for ways to improve my current lineup and am wondering about moving manny for either a SP or a top-flight SS. i just got tulowitzki and he could end up being extremely valuable at SS so i'm leaning towards going after a SP. this is all contingent on luis gonzalez being consistent and manny not tearing everything up in the 2nd half (i don't think he will).

anyway, 6x6 standard roto adding holds and OPS, here is what i have now:

C Mauer
1B V Martinez
2B Utley
3B A-Ram
SS Tulowitzki
LF Manny
CF Sizemore
RF Drew
UTIL Frank Thomas

Bench: Zimmerman, Luis Gonzalez, Brendan Harris, Mike Cameron

my hitting looks pretty [censored] sick right now although drew still makes me a little nervous. but if he and mags are in line with 2nd half projections he isn't much of a downgrade and i turned mags into grady sizemore so that seems like a no-brainer.

my pitching is ok - my bullpen pwns and my SP is meh

SP: Maine, Lowe, Vasquez, Maddux, Randy J, Sean Marshall
RP: Saito, Okajima, Accardo, Heath Bell, R Betancourt, C Villanueva

since we count holds, all of those guys but accardo is among the top 10 in RP so far this season.

so right now i am thinking i should

-drop cameron and look for a RF / UTIL type guy on waivers instead
-think about selling high on maine
-possibly move mauer since he's allegedly going to be bothered by that leg all year
-maybe move manny for a SP or a SS

any thoughts on these ideas? i'm in 3rd out of 12 with two guys a little bit ahead of me and everyone else way back. so far i have been struggling on offense (runs, RBI, HR) because a couple guys have been underperforming, but after bringing in sizemore i have high hopes.

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The first thing I'd do is insert Cameron for Drew. He's better.

I would definetly move Mauer or Martinez. Basically, try to fiugre out who's going to fetch you better value. Heck, you should be able to get a bat like Teixeira for one or the other.

If you're league is anything like the two I'm involved in, it's going to be tough to sell high on Maine. For some reason everybody thinks he's a fluke. If you can get an upgrade over Tulo, I'd do it. Or a top flight closer (K-Rod, Putz, Wagner, Nathan).

I don't reccomend trading Manny unless it's for a really big upgrade at short or an elite closer and a quality replacement in the OF. By quality, I mean a lot better than Drew or Luis Gonzalez. He might not be the old Manny, but he's still an elite offensive producer.

Mags for Sizemore was a big win for you.

Your worst pitcher is actually Sean Marshall. Maddux's defense and park help him out drastically. Depending on how many guys you can put on your bench, you can play matchups and two start pitchers. Vazquez, Maine, and Unit (when healthy) would be your every week starters. Cherry pick the best matchups and two start types from the rest. In fact, you could probably dump your entire bench (counting Drew, not Cameron) for quality pitchers. There are still a few on the waiver wire in my league, and we've got 12 teams and draft 33 players.

It looks like you need saves. Should be an easy swap of a MR for a closer. Okajima looks like the one with the biggest raitio of percieved:actual value.

[NT!]

peru,

the OF is divided by position (RF/CF/LF) so i can't play cameron over drew. hurts his value bigtime, obv, since i have grady.

i can sit a SP whenever i want. i usually play maddux at home or against bad teams on the road. i had been cautious with vasquez for a while but he seems so good right now that i can't sit him. not sure what i'm going to do with marshall; probably play it very safe with him until i see him get back on track.

despite how valuable setup men are, it's hard to get value for them from these yokels, so i'm not sure what i'll do there. okajima is probably the most valuable as a trade prospect, but if i end up in a saves crunch i like that he gets a few chances with the sox being cautious with paps.

before you get too down on gonzalez, keep in mind he's not far off his career norms (BA is a little high, but otherwise about normal)... and he's been outproducing manny so far. i don't expect that to last, but he'll probably remain a top 10 LF in my league, and with how stacked i am at other spots, if i can get big value for manny that might be enough.

drew was my best OF in june - better than mags or manny. if he hits at his career norms in that lineup he should be fine, and there isn't much out there on the wire anyway. i think xavier nady and jose bautista are the best RF available right now.

[rwperu34]

Wow! I've never seen a league that makes you play your outfielders in position. That increases Sizemore's value even more.

I feel you on the middle relievers. What do the hold standings look like in your league? I'm trying to get a better feel for that category. My league just doesn't seem right. We added holds in my league in 2005. The first year, only a couple of us realized the value of those pitchers, so it was easy pickings. Even then, the leaders underestimated their value. In 2005, there was one team in the 40s and three in the 30s. Then last year, the league made a slight adjustment, but not enough. Three teams made it to the 40s, with the leader being 7 more than the prior year, and two more in the 30s. I was still relying on websites for my formla at this point, so that's key to remember. This year, I did all the math myself and was suprised to see that if the league were efficient, middle relievers would make up about 40% of the pitchers. It seemed as if the league finally made a real adjustment. We expanded from ten to twelve teams, so that was a factor. Every team was drafting two or three of these guys, and some even four or five. Then, lo and behold, they didn't start them. I'm looking at two teams in my league that are already in the 40s and are about to pass the record for a season. By no coincindence, they are in 11th and 12th in saves, including one who punted saves from the git go. Then I'm in third with 30 on my way to about 45. Then there's another drop off to a four team bunch in the low 20s. We've got three teams that have punted and aren't going to make it to ten. That just doesn't seem right. By my math, the norm should be around 30. Instead, the median is 23 and the mean is 19. Still not enough and a very exploitable hole in the league.

[rwperu34]

Here are the park factors as a straight average from 2003-2007, or as long as teams have been in their new park. This should help you out when making those close calls in your lineup.

Colorado 1.257
Boston 1.137
Texas Rangers 1.129
Arizona 1.118
Kansas City 1.090
Philladelphia 1.078
Chicago Cubs 1.073
Toronto 1.066
Chicago White Sox 1.061
Cincinatti 1.045
Minnesota 1.015
Milwaukee 1.013
Houston 1.001
Pittsburgh 0.977
San Fransisco 0.974
New York Yankees 0.972
Tampa Bay 0.971
Atlanta 0.970
Oakland 0.961
Baltimore 0.956
New York Mets 0.953
St. Louis 0.951
Detroit 0.947
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.943
Cleveland 0.932
Los Angeles Angels 0.925
Seattle 0.911
Washington 0.910
Florida 0.901
San Diego 0.835

[rwperu34]

Just browsing the waiver wire in my league and I found two pretty good pitchers. My league is fairly deep, with 12 teams and 33 roster spots, so there's a good chance these guys are available in many leagues.

Josh Towers, Tor-Looks like a boderline every week starter at this point. He's somehow figured out how to K guys at a just above league average clip and his control is fabulous. His ERA is at 5.00, but should be closer to 3.85 with that Toronto D. Even if you take his relief appearences out, he looks like a flat 4.00 starter. He should be in there against all but the toughest lineups and any week when he has two starts regardless of opponents.

Scott Baker, Min-He's getting killed by the gopher ball again, but he's actually improved his GB/FB ratio to 1.00. It had been below 0.80 coming into the year. His K rate is 8.3% better than league average leading to a 7.1 K/9, and his control is stellar again at right around his career rate of 2.0 bb/9. Running his numbers through the formula comes up with an ERA of 4.37. This is someone you definietly want on your roster and start when he has two starts or the matchup is favorable.

FWIW, I've only got one roster spot available and I'm going to jump on Baker. I like the idea of the higher ceiling and I need those few extra Ks as opposed to a little ERA. If Towers is still pitching well and available in a couple of weeks after Jennings rolls through his easy schedule, I'll think about swapping them out.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

do you think I should pick up Towers to replace:

an injured Shawn Hill
or
AAA Anthony Reyes?

I don't desperately need a SP, my other guys are

Penny
Gorzellanny
Lincecum
Bonser
Westbrook
coming soon Chris Carpenter
Homer Bailey

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
do you think I should pick up Towers to replace:

an injured Shawn Hill
or
AAA Anthony Reyes?

I don't desperately need a SP, my other guys are

Penny
Gorzellanny
Lincecum
Bonser
Westbrook
coming soon Chris Carpenter
Homer Bailey

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it a keeper league? If not, then Reyes is not worth a whole lot. Hill doesn't excite me either, but because his numbers look pretty, you might be able to trade him when he comes back. Towers should slot in with Bonser behind Lincecum and Penny for the time being. Keep an eye on his BB/K ratio. It won't be any good in his two start week July 16-22 because he's got the Yanks and Seattle, which is about as bad as it gets. If all goes according to plan, he'll make up for it July 30-August 5 with two starts against Tampa Bay and Texas. That will really be the telling week on whether to go to the finsih with Towers.

[NT!]

thanks for all your efforts in this thread, peru

the two guys ahead of me basically punted saves, they each have one good closer and have played the waiver wire to try and pick up a few, but they are going all out for holds. i have like 35, i think the leader has 46. i'm in 4th or 5th for holds but we're all bunched up and i should be able to pass all but the leader if i have a good week. i've been starting three setup men and a closer, or playing accardo if the jays have a good matchup and one of my regs is gassed.

i just picked up villanueva off waivers (same way i got betancourt, LOL) so i'm hoping to shop a combo of heath bell, villanueva, cameron, and/or mauer for a big time SP and a bat.

i am really hoping that borowski loses the job in cleveland, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. betancourt has been a beast.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
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Haren and Cust for Sheffield and Kevin Gregg

pretty baller trade eh?

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That's a good deal as well your others. It looks like everybody wants to overpay for Haren. See if you can milk some more out of the other guys, but don't let it linger. It won't take but one or two bad starts and people will cool off on Haren.

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alright

im trying to move haren straight up for bonds then

my plan is to get him straight up if i can... or parlay another trade, like you said, to get bonds for haren somehow without giving anything else up

if i get bonds im going to try to move dunn for ichiro

ill keep cust and play him on bond's off-days

sound good?

[NT!]

karak,

are you not concerned that bonds is going to play, like, once every three days after he hits 756?