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#1
08-14-2006, 08:37 PM
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20-40 hand: smoked on the river
Playing 20-40 at the Borgata this weekend. Villain is a guy whom I'd previously seen playing 80-160, so I assume he hit a financial downswing recently. Villain is a good, slightly over-aggressive player. My image is hyper-aggressive.
UTG folds, villain raises. Three players fold, and I reraise with 7c7d. All fold to villain who calls. Flop is 6d 3h 2c. Villain checks, I bet, villain calls. Turn is Jh. Villain checks, I bet, villain raises, I call. I think it is very likely that villain is making a move with overcards and/or a flush draw, and I plan on calling down unless a heart falls. Villain then throws a monkey into the equation by smoke-betting before the river card is revealed. The river is the 6h. Now what? 
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#2
08-14-2006, 09:02 PM
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Re: 20-40 hand: smoked on the river
If you called the turn you should be calling the river.
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#5
08-15-2006, 12:33 AM
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Results
Jeff is probably right, but I got all my money in as a favorite. Villain had AhKh and rivered a flush. His smoke bet induced me to call, because I decided he'd have smoke bet any overcards. Of course, I was a favorite to win at the time that he bet. I thought it was interesting, however, that I would have folded if he bet after the heart fell.
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#6
08-15-2006, 01:00 AM
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Re: Results
Smoke call and insure a profit.
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#7
08-15-2006, 07:42 AM
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Re: 20-40 hand: smoked on the river
[ QUOTE ]
I think it is very likely that villain is making a move with overcards and/or a flush draw... [/ QUOTE ] Did you have a solid reason for believing the above italiced thought, or does: "I think it is very likely..." = "I really hope..."?
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#8
08-15-2006, 09:12 AM
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Re: 20-40 hand: smoked on the river
I felt that if he had an overpair or even a jack, he wouldn't have check-raised the turn for fear that I would fold. He would have been more likely to check-raise the flop and lead the turn.
Obviously, there was a chance that he had a jack or an overpair, but often a turn check-raise with a draw on the board means that a good opponent has a big draw. There's enough chance of that that I'm going to call here.
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#9
08-16-2006, 03:25 AM
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Re: 20-40 hand: smoked on the river
I'm curious...what did the villain look like?
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#10
08-16-2006, 02:15 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
Of course, I was a favorite to win at the time that he bet. [/ QUOTE ] this is incorrect. My own personal PF raising is around 17% and it is very specifically for these kinds of opponents that I raise so much. When you 3- bet me with small pocket pairs, you are forgetting that I am able to win the maximum from you and you will win the minimum from me, barring a set. The reaoning is this. You are not to sure if I am raising with a pocket pair, and I never raise with any that 77 beats. When an Ace falls, especially if I have position, you have no choice but the make a play at it. When I hold an ace, this is bad for you. Also, I do not have to call the river unimproved, but you do. This singular situation is where my edge comes from.
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