High Stakes Poker thread (9/24) (Spoilers in Thread to come?)

[Suigin406]

wow, just saw the episode, jeez, wth with farha, that was a pretty sick display

[DrewDevil]

What is the motivation for the guy who's a hudge favorite to run it twice anyway? They always seem to agree to it.

[Ikaros]

Regarding Helmuth and his insistence on insurance deals, I don't think it is because he is afraid of losing that he is doing it. Egomaniacs rarely are afraid of much anything. Rather, I think he believes he is making a good bet. Think about it, every poker everywhere likes to tell how their luck is so bad, how donkeys always suck out on them. Wouldn't it be just like someone as delusional as Helmuth to actually believe it. To think that the universe itself is somehow conspiring to ruin him.

Take that set vs straight draw hand for example. It was determined that Phil's hand was three to one favourite on the flop. However, if you think you are really only going to win half of the time it makes sense to bet your opponent's hand getting 1:2.5 odds.

[NicksDad1970]

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding Helmuth and his insistence on insurance deals, I don't think it is because he is afraid of losing that he is doing it. Egomaniacs rarely are afraid of much anything. Rather, I think he believes he is making a good bet. Think about it, every poker everywhere likes to tell how their luck is so bad, how donkeys always suck out on them. Wouldn't it be just like someone as delusional as Helmuth to actually believe it. To think that the universe itself is somehow conspiring to ruin him.

Take that set vs straight draw hand for example. It was determined that Phil's hand was three to one favourite on the flop. However, if you think you are really only going to win half of the time it makes sense to bet your opponent's hand getting 1:2.5 odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then look at the time he was at the FT during this years WSOP. He lost every insurance bet, placed in like 3rd or 4th, and broke even because of all his insurance losses.

Or are you just saying in cash games it makes sense for PH?

[Suigin406]

drew alluded to it, but i guess i must have missed something with the JJ v AT hand, seems strange that farha saw the hand and then decided he wanted to run it twice, ur a solid favorite, y give him another board to catch up??

[Black winter day]

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Harman is like one of those uber nits at my tables with 10/5/3 stats, if she bets, just get out of the way.

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I'm pretty sure this is the impression she wants people to have of her. She clearly plays much tighter on TV than in her regular games, in which she has a lot of fold equity from oblivious people who think "she's tight, she must have me" and muck. If you listen to Todd Brunson and Howard Lederer , they'll tell you something different about how loose she actually is.

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FYP

[Ikaros]

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Then look at the time he was at the FT during this years WSOP. He lost every insurance bet, placed in like 3rd or 4th, and broke even because of all his insurance losses.

Or are you just saying in cash games it makes sense for PH?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Phil's belief that those insurance bets are actually +ev to him is the only explanation for his insistence on making them that makes sense. I mean, he can't be actually afraid of losing his stack, can he? Haven't we all lost our stacks more times than we care to count. I am sure Phil has, as well.

I haven't really watched the WSOP, and I had no idea he was doing it there too. I don't know how he would calculate the insurance ev in tournament setting.

[JP OSU]

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drew alluded to it, but i guess i must have missed something with the JJ v AT hand, seems strange that farha saw the hand and then decided he wanted to run it twice, ur a solid favorite, y give him another board to catch up??

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you guys not understand that the EV is the exact [censored] same either way?

[Black winter day]

I think, it's different if you run 2 boards, cause PH has a bit better odds to catch an Ace once and take half of the pot.

So, basically Farha is giving PH a little better odds while reducing variance.

[gobboboy]

No, the ev is exactly the same. I am not going to look up the calculations because we go through this conversation every single time someone brings up running it multiple times. The only thing that goes down is variance.