HU rake considerations in split pot games

[THEjDonk]

I've played some HORSE (0.5/1) on Pokerstars lately. It seems like they rake a certain amount for every dollar that goes into the pot unless the pot gets big.

Let's say that you're playing stud8. You have a low hand on sixth street. You don't think your opponent is afraid of your board (no pair, mostly rainbow, but looking like a made low). He has an open pair of aces (let's assume that you think his most likely down cards are two small ones, so he can't have better than aces right now) and can't make a low hand. You have no outs to scoop. Would you be inclined to always check in this situation?

If we assume that our opponent will never fold, betting will just generate more rake. If we play against a very good opponent, he might realize that we wouldn't bet unless we had aces beat for high or were freerolling. He might not fold on sixth in that situation, but he might decide that aces are no good on seventh street if we fire again (or check sixth/bet seventh).

So what would you do? Would you never bet to keep the rake small, or are there certain opponents you would bet against to cover for the times you do have his high hand beat?

Remember that this is the smallest games on Pokerstars. Does this make you more inclined to check against typical opponents, or doesn't it matter much?

[adanthar]

You should usually check, not because of the rake (which is comparatively miniscule, anyhow), but because if your read is wrong, there is a chance you are being freerolled.

[THEjDonk]

I probably messed up my initial post. I should have said that you know that your opponent can't make a better low hand than yourself, and you're certain that he has a high hand that you can't beat.

I just said that he had aces as an example. Is it likely that there will be any fold equity against a player with aces here, or should I just check it down to avoid more rake? I wasn't really that interested about sixth street. I was thinking mostly about betting on seventh street to try to bluff your opponent out of half the pot. When is it worth a try, and when should you check it down? Position might be a factor, but I wouldn't think it matters that much if it's obvious to your opponent that you have made a low hand.

If it's easier to discuss an example you can take these two hands:

HERO: [A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [random card]

Villian: [x x] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [x]

Let's assume that pot size before river betting is 8 big bets. The rake isn't capped before there are 10 big bets in the pot

[RustyBrooks]

It's going to have to depend on the size of the pot... obviously if you're past the rake cap it doesn't matter.

If it's not, then do the math and see how it comes out. If P is the size of the pot, and F is the percentage chance he'll fold when you bet, and R is the additional amount you'll lose to rake then you should bet if

F*P*0.5 > R

That is, if you'll win the other half of the pot often enough to pay the extra rake. If the extra rake is 5% of a BB and the pot currently has, say, 5bb in it, then you have

F*5*0.5 > .05

which reduces to
F > .02

So if he'll fold more than 2% of the time (in this case) it's worth a bet.

Personally I think your opponent will fold here approximately never, so ymmv. But heck, misclick rates might be more than 2% for some people.

[RustyBrooks]

Oh, and I re-read and you say 8bb in the pot.

so now you hav

F*8*.5 > .05 (well, ok, I don't actually know the rake rate without looking)

Which comes out to, you should bet if

F > .0125 (1.25%)

So bet out. Or check-raise! That would be sweet. Note that you have to redo the math for a check-raise since you'll be paying double the rake. There's maybe a slightly higher chance he'll fold to a check-raise, thinking you have him beat with 2 pair to scoop instead of you going low and him going high. But still pretty slim.

[RustyBrooks]

Basically what it comes down to is, the potential payoff is sooooo huge that risking a bet is usually right.

[THEjDonk]

Thanks for the reply. I'm trying to improve my game. I'll admit that my first post was probably too easy to misunderstand. I'll try to think more about how I post things in the future.

I'm also interested in knowing if it's possible to get some more or less free software that I can use to analyze my game. I'd like to know if I play hands like
[4 7]8, [7 3]2, [Q K]Q and so on profitably. Can someone recommend something? I'll see if I can find something in another thread, but you can reply or PM me if you have any suggestion.

I'm playing a bit of HORSE for the moment, so I guess that I'd like to analyze razz, stud, stud8 and maybe omaha8. I've got more experience in hold'em, but if there's a piece of software that can be used for all the HORSE-games that would be great.

[RustyBrooks]

I'd probably start with reading as much as you can on these games... Sklansky on Razz for razz, there's also a tiny section is SS/1 on razz. There's a good section on omaha/8 in SS/2. "Seven Card Stud for Advanced Players" is good for stud and I think it covers stud/8 also? I haven't read it. There are a few books on omaha and omaha/8 out there, I think Tom McEvoy has an omaha book. I haven't read that either. Anyway, these books should offer good launching points, particularly for hand selection and play on early streets. I think every player should understand starting hand selection well before they even really venture into the game. You need more than that to win, but I don't think you can win without it.

Not to sound harsh, but if you can't arrive at the conclusions that I did above, you might want to spend some time learning basic gambling mathematics. Theory of Poker has some in the beginning. Ideally every gambler should not only know basic probabilty but how to calculate EV in basic situations like this.

Software wise
http://twodimes.net/poker/
has simulators for all those games.
http://www.propokertools.com/
has simulators for some of them.

I'm working on a simulator that will work with most poker games. Haven't put much time into it recently, though.

[RustyBrooks]

Oh, and to be completely pedantic it's actually

F*(P-T)*0.5 > R

Where T is the total rake so far, because you're not going to actually win the whole pot. This can change F by about 5% obviously. But we're talking about 2% vs 2.1% so not really a big deal.

[Merton0806]

[ QUOTE ]
"Seven Card Stud for Advanced Players" is good for stud and I think it covers stud/8 also?

[/ QUOTE ]

just stud hi covered in this book. ray zee's book covers stud8 (and omaha8)