I'm like a lost child QQ hand 25nl

[well named]

This deep is it really a good idea to make a 3-bet with QQ on this flop? Certainly 4-flush hands (and pair+draw hands) are in his range, but the best result we can really hope for after a 3-bet is a fold, because whether he calls or shoves we'll be in a pretty sick spot, out of position, and it's much easier for him to put us on mostly overpairs than it is for us to figure out what percentage of his range we have good equity against.

Basically, QQ is just not that strong on this board and raising this flop heavily this deep just turns our hand into a bluff in my opinion. We may have the best hand on the flop, but we are also out of position and this is a pretty bad RIO situation. I don't like it as a default play without a read.

That said, every option is tough so I'm not sure I can really advocate just folding to the flop raise. Just calling and getting it on a blank turn might be a decent compromise (bet/call).

Certainly as played you have to get it in on a blank turn. When you raised the flop you basically already decided that, and you shouldn't have raised the flop unless you intended to do so.

[bknollenberg]

shove turn, you are either in really good shape or are drawing dead (flopped nut flush / flopped second nut flush etc), but i think he more likely has something like AdJx. either way though your flop raise commits you, so shove for a little over a pot size bet on turn and cross fingers. tough spot though.

[Ranma4703]

Just a note for all you multitablers: This is the kind of situation reads help in. Not numbers, reads. Some opponents you are crushed, others you are crushing. Once you get to the turn, you have to push, but on the flop you have to know your villain. Any history with him? Have you been cbetting a lot?

On the turn, if you check, he is betting everything that beats you, and he might bet hands you are beating like AdJx. He is checking behind all his draws, and getting away on the river. Check/fold is okay, but I think hero should push here.

Honestly, I play 5 tables, no HUD, and I usually have pretty good reads on my villains. If you cannot get reads besides numbers, drop a table.

[sixsixtie]

Ok thanks guys. I think I agree that building a big pot on the flop with deep stacks on this board is a mistake. I did push the turn. He called and showed A2diamonds for the nuts.

[stillnaive]

Here's my attempt at working out the math to determine whether pushing the turn is +EV based on my reads on the situation. I used rounded hand equities from PokerStove; if anyone sees a problem with my math, let me know and help me fix it.

I'd say they've got trips about 10% of the time, a gutshot about 10%, a made straight w/ flush draw about 15%, TP w/ FD or straight up four flush 30% of the time, made flush 25% of the time, air or floating, resulting in a fold to your all in bet = maybe 10% FE (that's generous).



JJ, 99, 66: 5% to 95%
AJo,KJo,QJo,JcTd,JdTc,JdTh,JdTs,JhTd,JsTd: 80% to 20%
810o w/ FD: 70% to 30%
Made straight: DEAD
Made flush: DEAD

EV=.90{.10*[.05(58.25)-.95(25.9)]+.10[.80(58.25)-.20(25.9)]+.15(-25.9)+.30[.70(58.25)-.30(25.9)]+.25(-25.9)}+.10{32.35}

Breathe!

EV=.90{.10*[-21.69]+.10[41.42]+.15(-25.9)+.30[33.01]+.25(-25.9)}+.10{32.35}

EV=.90{-2.17+4.14-3.885+9.903-6.48}+.1{32.35}

EV=.90{1.5}+.1{32.35}

EV= +$4.59

Now, the thing is, I would change up the percentages completely on any higher level, or on any type of a reasonable TAG. He's not calling that monotone board with anything but a made flush to that much pressure, IMO.

[billip62]

As played it's definately a shove on the turn, but I'd probably check/call down assuming another diamond doesn't show up. It's a passive line and leads to being out drawn, but I just can't see playing a big pot here.

These boards are very similar to flopping TPTK and facing a villian who is trying to get you to commit 150BBs.

[dawade]

My initial reaction would be to just call the raise on the flop and check/call unless another [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] peels off.

[maciczka]

after You're 3-bet on flop, You now can't stop being afraid of that on flop he had oesd and the str8 just came. if You want to test it, just fire. check/folding is bad. as some of answers include pokerstove calculations I believe even without them, that after the reraise at flop You should definetly lead turn.

Overall tbh. I dont like Your push at that flop vs that kind of guy, who seems solid. as played push turn.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
This deep is it really a good idea to make a 3-bet with QQ on this flop? Certainly 4-flush hands (and pair+draw hands) are in his range, but the best result we can really hope for after a 3-bet is a fold, because whether he calls or shoves we'll be in a pretty sick spot, out of position, and it's much easier for him to put us on mostly overpairs than it is for us to figure out what percentage of his range we have good equity against.

Basically, QQ is just not that strong on this board and raising this flop heavily this deep just turns our hand into a bluff in my opinion. We may have the best hand on the flop, but we are also out of position and this is a pretty bad RIO situation. I don't like it as a default play without a read.

That said, every option is tough so I'm not sure I can really advocate just folding to the flop raise. Just calling and getting it on a blank turn might be a decent compromise (bet/call).

Certainly as played you have to get it in on a blank turn. When you raised the flop you basically already decided that, and you shouldn't have raised the flop unless you intended to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT, spot on.

OP, check out www.holdemranger.com for a PokerStove type tool that allows you to weight ranges without having to go through all the maths yourself.