PS $50 - I hate this spot so much

[Artie746]

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I think I agree with calling but that isn't the correct way to think about SNGs. Playing to get ITM with the best chance of also getting first>>>>>Playing to win. There is difference and it is important.

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I get what you're saying but my point is I'd never fold here because every time, you're a solid favorite to double up and contest with the chip leader when it gets to heads up. With the BB already at 200, having a bigger stack is huge because you wouldn't have too much room to maneuver and outplay the chip leader with a small stack.

Call and win: Big Stack = 7.4k, Hero Stack = 5.3k
Fold: Big Stack = 10.3k, Hero Stack = 2.4k

Him having an ace here is the worst case scenario. A lot of the time you may even have him crushed preflop. To me, this is worth a gamble.

[Kevin8423]

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I think I agree with calling but that isn't the correct way to think about SNGs. Playing to get ITM with the best chance of also getting first>>>>>Playing to win. There is difference and it is important.

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I get what you're saying but my point is I'd never fold here because every time, you're a solid favorite to double up and contest with the chip leader when it gets to heads up. With the BB already at 200, having a bigger stack is huge because you wouldn't have too much room to maneuver and outplay the chip leader with a small stack.

Call and win: Big Stack = 7.4k, Hero Stack = 5.3k
Fold: Big Stack = 10.3k, Hero Stack = 2.4k

Him having an ace here is the worst case scenario. A lot of the time you may even have him crushed preflop. To me, this is worth a gamble.

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Put the hand into SNGWiz, it isn't worth the gamble.

[Artie746]

Given the possible range of hands he shoves here with, I'd say on average, you're about a 75% favorite if you call here. I'd gamble here with a 75% chance to have a legit shot at winning the whole thing instead of folding and practically resigning myself to 2nd or even 3rd.

[TruFloridaGator]

Easy fold, especially since you are in great shape to get HU anyways.

[chrimill]

I ran the numbers and I believe you would need an 85% chance of winning to make this a neutral EV call. So basically unless he has specifically king high this is a fold. AA is actually neutral EV in this spot even if we assume the raiser has a random hand.

[donkeykong2]

with button being so low, you will usually get the 60% second prize money. so if you call this you do it to have better chances to battle for the 40% left. you double your chances from around 1/6 to 1/3, about 17%.
multiplied with the 40% we have a gain of 7% of the prize pool if we win. if we lose, we lose the 60% of the prize pool x% of the time. if we assume 20%, we already lose 12% of the prize pool, so seems like a fold.

I lol'd so many times in this thread,

Yes it sucks to fold but it's way easy.

[Longy]

I fold this as well. This looks really like a hand posted on here about a year ago by bigjoe where dario mineri made a call with kk in a 1050.

You have to take into account given the big stack is competent and will continue to shove atc, if the shorites survive for any period, your chips and equity will bleed away again giving up the chips you have gained by calling and winning.

[ger664]

KK is a fold here do the math. We know villians range 4 out of 5 hands thats 80%. FWIW AA is always a call.

[flopton]

this isn't one of those spots where AA is a fold based on icm? id like to know some of the math on that if you will show it. you have 31.46 equity right now and if you double up you have 36.71. so to be risking 31 to make 5 you need an 86% chance to win against the range? what is the chance aces will win against any 2 cards?