PS $50 - I hate this spot so much

[Mackerel]

CO has been sitting out several rounds, and will be all-in in the BB next hand. SB has been abusing the bubble, pushing at least 4 out of 5 hands for a while now. Button and I have just been meekly folding, waiting for CO to blind out. Then this hand comes up.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t95)
Button (t710)
SB (t10045)
Hero (t2650)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t9000</font>

Hero...........

Fold to guarantee the money, or go for the win?

[vm1124]

this is a fold.

[MagicKK]

I'd fold. You're pretty much guaranteed 2nd unless the Button doubles up a couple of times. It's a tough one, but folding seems like the most profitable play here.

[holy32]

Yes, fold.

If Button had one bb less AA would be a fold here.

[Kevin8423]

I don't know that this is a fold and I certainly wouldn't be folding AA here. Doubling up to around 5000 will have a significant boost to the chances of taking first and you win such a high % against ATC that it might be profitable enough to jusitify it for the times you lose against the garbage and occasional Ax hand he is shoving. With AA you win even more often so I think its even tougher to fold.

[Mackerel]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that this is a fold and I certainly wouldn't be folding AA here. Doubling up to around 5000 will have a significant boost to the chances of taking first and you win such a high % against ATC that it might be profitable enough to jusitify it for the times you lose against the garbage and occasional Ax hand he is shoving. With AA you win even more often so I think its even tougher to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost exactly what was going through my mind at the time.

[Artie746]

You play SNGs to make the money or to win? Worst case scenario, you're a 2-1 favorite. I call every time

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
You play SNGs to make the money or to win? Worst case scenario, you're a 2-1 favorite. I call every time

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agree with calling but that isn't the correct way to think about SNGs. Playing to get ITM with the best chance of also getting first&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;Playing to win. There is difference and it is important.

[kleath]

[ QUOTE ]
You play SNGs to make the money or to win? Worst case scenario, you're a 2-1 favorite. I call every time

[/ QUOTE ]

Play to maximize your expectation.

SNGWiz has us folding every hand even if he's pushing 100%, fold.

[Kevin8423]

I stand corrected, after looking at SNGWiz you should fold 100%.