Hacker Attack (All Info Game Thread - Feb 19 Start)

[wdcbooks]

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Books still hasn't given his last peek. Books? Hello? Are you out there?

I'm starting to think you're evil, too.

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Apologies, Zurvan. Xoom-good. I am only really checking in and reading a few posts over the weekend. I thought his list indicated a likely useful seer and if I was ever going to return a result other than good he would be someone I would like to know.

[LuckayLuck]

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I wasn't sure what the result would be when I hit books, but the fact that books returned wolf makes me pretty freaking certain I'm a real seer.

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There were 7 wolves last night, and 22 players. So about 1/3 of the time that you're useless, you're going to decide you are a real seer. I think you're at least 3 times more likely to be a useless seer than a real seer, so that puts you at, what, maybe 50% likely to be a real seer, IF we agree with your assumptions in the first place?

You're being absurd.

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why are you guys lynching someone who has a 50% chance of being the real seer, even if that's how the math works out? What's the probability that my peeks and bluff's are the exact same on books and neil stevens, both "wolves"? Bluff I think is a seer because of my peeks obviously, PLUS kyro is freaking villagery.

My peeks I have one dead confirmed villager, and I peeked two long-term peeks (amp & jeremy) as 'villa. I can never tell, but I'm pretty sure I'm a real seer too.

Lynch Neil Stevens.

Why you should lynch Neil Stevens:
<ul type="square">[*]A 0% chance of being the real seer[*]EVEN IF I WAS A WOLF, and were fabricating my peeks, I would throw Neil Stevens under the bandwagon here. And if I'm the seer, I would throw Neil Stevens under the bandwagon here to save myself.[*]Bluffblank, who definitely could be a real seer, as well as me, have peeked Neil Stevens as the evil[*]TRAZ HAS BEEN ON NEIL STEVENS SINCE DAY1, HE'S LIKE THE WOLFFINDERAMATIC[*]Did I mention that I think I'm the real seer?[/list]
lemme go dig up some dirt on Neil Stevens, hopefully convince the village here...

[Neil S]

Why do I have a 0% chance of being the real seer? I have one confirmed correct peek and that's it, no?

[Zurvan]

Luckay: because you're only 50% to be a useful seer if we thought you were a villager. I don't, and I think a lot of other people don't either.

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lemme go dig up some dirt on Neil Stevens, hopefully convince the village here...

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If you present the opposite case to the one you gave Friday about Neil, you will have officially become a parody of yourself.

[Stephen H]

4 peeks is worthless. There's no way I'm drawing any conclusions about a 4th peek based on 3 peeks being correct - we don't have the room to be wrong and it's just not very reliable. So I'd rather ignore peek data altogether than make one more mistake based on minimal evidence. This is why I think coming out with 4 peeks helps the wolves and hurts the village - 4 peeks is enough for wolves to figure out who's likely to be a real seer, but 3 isn't enough for the villagers to be able to rely on the 4th.

And two people's peeks matching isn't particularly interesting evidence either and I'm getting tired of saying why.

As far as your "counter-argument" goes.
1) No, my goal last night was to peek someone likely to end up dead soon; I had 4 living peeks and figured it was time to get some that might die and get some idea if I'm useful or not (My current reads tell me I'm useless so whatever). None of my first 4 peeks seem likely to be dead anytime soon, either.
2) So I peeked Neil as it's very likely he'll end up dead sooner rather than later.

[LuckayLuck]

Neil: You are 0% chance of being the real seer because you peeked books as village (and he's wolf)
plus, you're a wolf faking as naive, which is really easy to pull off and as expected of what you would do if you were faking as a wolf

[fnord_too]

Luckay,

I agree we should not be lynching you today. We should lynch neil today and if he is a wolf wdc tomorrow then you regardless.

THe problem is this is EXACTLY in line with play you would make as a wolf if neil and wdc are wolves, too.

That and if everything you have said today is true you have played pretty horribly the past few days.

[LuckayLuck]

fnord: consider my metagame of impossbility of getting eaten by wolves and I think you'll find my peek list extremely good

I really did not expect to be up for lynch so early

and yes, I guess this is exactly in line with play I would make as a wolf if neil and wdc were wolves, BUT I'M NOT A WOLF THIS TIME. WHY NOT LYNCH NEIL AND BOOKS FIRST and then re-evaluate?

[Stephen H]

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Why you should ABSOLUTELY NOT VOTE FOR NEIL STEVENS

<ul type="square">[*]Item One: As Kyro has mentioned, but in ADDITION - Neil Stevens' targets are completely wild. He can not possibly play this way as a wolf, a new-ish wolf tends to fall into general follow-wagons. [ QUOTE ]
My reads:

chuckles, xorbie, traz or kyro

And fmxda should post more.

[/ QUOTE ] Kyro has mentioned that kyro was one of the people defending him. Attacking xorbie/traz is also a futile task (as Neil Stevens already knows from his gaming experience, I'm pretty sure).[*]Item Two: LOOK AT HIS VOTING PATTERNS. He repeatedly does NOT vote the second-highest vote guy when his neck is on the line. Classic villager "just-want-to-find wolves" mentality. To repeat:

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NEIL switches from STEPHEN (5) to SCOTT (3)

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Neil, a new-ish wolf, when he is in danger of being lynched, switches from STEPHEN (bandwagon leader), to SCOTT (???). I briefly thought about the situation where NEIL and STEPHEN were wolves together, but that idea quickly got quashed in my head because NEIL voted for STEPHEN'S bandwagon early on when it looked like it would take off.

THERE HAS BEEN MORE THAN ONE INSTANCE OF THIS.
[*]Item Three:
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Well, I think Stephen's a great lynch, but I'm not suicidal about it.

[vote BluffBlank]

And that contradiction that sparked Bluff's whole wagon is a plausible substitute wolf error I think, so I'm comfortable with this I suppose.

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Neil Stevens is clearly fighting his desire to lynch who he believes to be a wolf here. Bluff's probably someone who's like 2nd/3rd on his list.[/list]

<u>DO NOT LYNCH NEIL STEVENS, DO NOT NOT NOT LYNCH NEIL STEVENS, I HAVE BEEN A WOLF ALONGSIDE WITH HIM IN LOTR. HE IS NOT A WOLF. HE IS NOT A WOLF.</u>
REPEAT MY VOTE: BLUFFBLANK

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Explain to me why the three points above that you believed in so strongly are no longer meaningful to you after being given a random PM from durron, and maybe I'll listen to something else you have to say. MAYBE.
Going and finding wolfy posts from Neil means nothing, as we all already know about them. If you've changed your mind, then tell me what about the above no longer applies in your mind? Why doesn't any of that clear him any more?
Aside from the blatent lies, of course.

[LuckayLuck]

<u>SHADY QUOTES FROM NEIL STEVENS</u>

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Er, Zurvan, I'm not talking about peek info at all. If you've noticed, I was gunning for Stephen before the big flood of peeks. I'm going solely based on this reasoning: There's just no way that we haven't come CLOSE to lynching a wolf this entire game. Mathematically the odds have to be astronomical.

And, well, since Stephen and I have repeatedly come close so much, I think he pretty much HAS to be a wolf. That or the whole thing's just rigged.

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This is a terrible wolfy post yo.

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You really think the wolves want to give us a known wolf peek that easily?

I think there's a good chance I will be making my peek list up tomorrow about this time, and not necessarily because I expect to be coming out as a useful seer. I expect to because Stephen will be the runner up to me next. It's that or I'll be the runner up to him.

They have to try though. They have to try to shut us out of figuring out our roles as long as possible.

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I think that Neil may have slipped here as a wolf. He's MAKING UP his peeks??