Hacker Attack (All Info Game Thread - Feb 19 Start)

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
tfg is an almost certain paranoid peeking you as evil?

[/ QUOTE ]

ummmm zurvan maybe?

[/ QUOTE ]

so basically just completely irrelevant. again, with my peeks & tfg's peeks & previous suspicion i think you are 90%+ to be a wolf. we can get you now, we can get you later, but i'm not the village just douche around anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I said was you have me as evil and an obvious paranoid (zurvan) has me as evil. A quite possibly non paranoid usefull seer has me as good. Why are you trying so hard to twist what I am saying with this double talk? I did not see my good peek with all the evils when I posted, but what I posted was clear and factual. Let me look at those other peeks quick like.

[Neil S]

Probability of getting a 2-2 split as useless:

23/30 * 21/28 * 7/26 * 7/24 +
23/30 * 7/28 * 19/26 * 7/24 +
7/30 * 21/28 * 19/26 * 7/24 +
23/30 * 7/28 * 7/26 * 17/24 +
7/30 * 21/28 * 7/26 * 17/24 +
7/30 * 7/28 * 19/26 * 17/24 =

4.5% + 4.1% + 3.7% + 3.7% + 3.3% + 3.0% =

22%

So if we have several useless ones out, it's not surprising to get a 2-2 split.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then I think bluff has a very high probability of being a real seer.

[/ QUOTE ]

no [censored] you "think" so. i think there's a VERY good chance that bluff was railroaded by some wolves because it would look this way.

fwiw, the odds of a useless seer splitting peeks is fairly high (around 25%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, I think that because of the 2/2 split and because he has me correct. I wasn't here for the railroading yesterday, but my vote was on neil, again, because he is the correct lynch still. Stephen is an accecptable lynch, and wdc might be fine as well. I have you peeking me evil, bluff peeking me good, and an almost certain paranoid peeking me evil.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fnord - why do you think Neil is the correct lynch?

[TruFloridaGator]

Who should I peek guys? Just wondering.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
Who should I peek guys? Just wondering.

[/ QUOTE ]
You should really keep that to yourself and decide for yourself - we can't tell you or the wolves can mess around with your peeks

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then I think bluff has a very high probability of being a real seer.

[/ QUOTE ]

no [censored] you "think" so. i think there's a VERY good chance that bluff was railroaded by some wolves because it would look this way.

fwiw, the odds of a useless seer splitting peeks is fairly high (around 25%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, I think that because of the 2/2 split and because he has me correct. I wasn't here for the railroading yesterday, but my vote was on neil, again, because he is the correct lynch still. Stephen is an accecptable lynch, and wdc might be fine as well. I have you peeking me evil, bluff peeking me good, and an almost certain paranoid peeking me evil.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fnord - why do you think Neil is the correct lynch?

[/ QUOTE ]

Strong wolf vibes + clown/bluff peek + traz read. (I think traz is good). I probably need to make my own spread sheet to track a few things that I do not easily see looking at screenshots of others.

Another reason is that twice now neil has been saved. I am leaning good on stephen h, but that is not strong.

I am leaning evil on xorbie via occam's razor, but I don't expect others to see that until I am dead or until I am genearlly accepted as village.

If neil comes up evil, as I am confident he will, our next play is automatic. That is pretty nice.

[Zurvan]

In no way, shape or form should we be following TFG's & xorbie's peeks here. If we want to lynch somebody to clear up a seer situation, Luckay gives us more info. Lynching fnord tells us about xorbie & TFG.

Problem is, xorbie refused to give his peeks yesterday, and happened to come up with a peek that would "clear" him & another person as useful seers after TFG had given him an opening. Not only that, the person they are lynching to clear themselves will not provide good info to anybody else.

No [censored] way am I going to sit back & let xorbie pull this. The best lynch today, by a long shot, is Luckay.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
Who should I peek guys? Just wondering.

[/ QUOTE ]

Adding to what herbie said, randing between a few targets is not bad.

[Zurvan]

FUrther to that: fnord coming up evil tells us nothing concrete about TFG. We'll only have 1 solid piece of info on him, and a useless seer could do the same thing.

[fnord_too]

I agree with everything zurvan just said.