Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL

[Milky]

I think this may be a (small?) leak in my game. What is the standard play in this situation? Villain is 62/6/.5 over an insignificant sample size.


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.02/$0.05 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $4.68
BB: $6.49
UTG: $3.36
Hero (CO): $16.99
BTN: $5.81

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.05, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.25</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $0.23, BB folds, UTG calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.80) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.50</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $3.11</font>, Hero...?

[creamfillin]

Call, you're a slight favorite against a pair and a big favorite against a weaker draw. There's also over 20bbs already in the pot. This is very +EV.

[orange]

Standard call.

[Milky]

Thanks guys, just needed some reassurance.

I had been running over the table the past few orbits so I put him on a ten or a lower pocket pair, maybe another draw.

Sure enough, he had 108o and I hit my flush on the river.

[Tking4unc]

Call Call Call

[LastLife]

The only thing you are not ahead of his is a set, and he most likely does not push allin with a set here, so you can say that you 100% ahead of his range here, call every time.

[RajHendon]

Perhaps contraversially, I would not call here. I would need more outs to call. I would call with Ac6x (which could give me 14 outs to a flush, trips, two pair -- granted, Ac6x is not a raising hand, but I use it to illustrate the thinking), but I would not call with AcKc (9 outs). Perhaps I am too nitty, I dont know!

[RajHendon]

reasoning:
With 9 outs, the probability of a flush with 2 cards to come is 35%. Villain is loose, so can't necessarily add fold equity to make things more positive EV.

With 13 outs to something decent, we have probability of 48%. We can't anticipate additional folding equity EV from loose villain, but I am happy with 50% odds.

[DarkMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
reasoning:
With 9 outs, the probability of a flush with 2 cards to come is 35%. Villain is loose, so can't necessarily add fold equity to make things more positive EV.

With 13 outs to something decent, we have probability of 48%. We can't anticipate additional folding equity EV from loose villain, but I am happy with 50% odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has no pair, we're a huge favorite, probably 80% or more to win. If he has one pair, we're usually a slight favorite with 15 outs, though maybe 12 outs if his kicker is an A or K. The rare times he has a two pair or set, we still have a decent draw to win. Overall, our chances are definitely good enough to call. I think folding here is a pretty big leak.