#11
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Re: Optimal?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The rest of their range is a coinflip against us. [/ QUOTE ] And the occasional AJ, AT- [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I thought about those also. I think it's a good play, I hate playing flop poker with SS's |
#12
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Re: Optimal?
I like it
din't look up if it is really right (considering SC numbers) but my gut says yes |
#13
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Re: Optimal?
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a good play, I hate playing flop poker with SS's [/ QUOTE ] That's the gist of my shove...avoid continuation bets 2/3 of times when I have no idea what to do.. |
#14
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Re: Optimal?
[ QUOTE ]
Assume they will call with AK, JJ+ thats 3.9% of hands. Your equity against this range is 35% I have simplified by giving them both $200.00 and assuming they will never both call. My rough calculations 92.2% You win Blinds $15.00 = $13.83 2.73% (7.8% x 35%) You are called and win pot $400.00 = $10.92 5.07% (7.8% x 65%) You are called and lose pot -$400.00 = -$20.28 Equity from shove = $4.47. Pretty close, +EV but high variance. If they play predictably then a 3bb raise should steal their blinds a lot of the time and you can get away from a re-raise easy enough. [/ QUOTE ] Thank you for putting the time into doing this; but I think you assign them too tight a range. I didn't really have reads on them, but you can't assume they are perfect competent shortstackers. I think a wider range like 88+, AQ+ with some random hands like 5% of the time is in order. |
#15
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Re: Optimal?
I just used the range Alex suggested when he didnt like the play - kind of a worst case scenario.
My guess is that there is no range that we dont profit against. As Mike points out if we widen their range then we probably are adding hands like flipping PPs or favorites against AJ/KQ so thats even better. |
#16
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Re: Optimal?
yeah i think you should just raise
its not like you are wanting to maximise FE here, AQ is a strong hand. |
#17
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Re: Optimal?
[ QUOTE ]
its not like you are wanting to maximise FE here, AQ is a strong hand. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know...against tight shortstackers, AQ is never the best hand when they call, so increasing FE seems like a good thing. For example, they may 3bet shove with 88 to a simple button steal, but this might get them to fold 88/99/AQ, which is a good thing. Of course, this assumes that these guys would fold AJ to a simple button steal, and that might not be true. |
#18
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Re: Optimal?
man, i don't think this is the best line assuming they're compotent. Raise it up to $30. Also, unless the big stacks are huge fish I would probably just leave the game since you have a really [censored] seat at the table. At least get up and move to whatever open seat there is at the table.
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#19
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Re: Optimal?
I always thought it was OK to be to the right of a Short Stack since you can steal his blinds (unless they adjust and start re-stealing correctly)
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#20
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Re: Optimal?
[ QUOTE ]
I always thought it was OK to be to the right of a Short Stack since you can steal his blinds (unless they adjust and start re-stealing correctly) [/ QUOTE ] I love being on the right of nitty shortstackers. Stealing their blinds almost pays for me to sit at the table and they will still stack off lighter than a full stack would. |
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