Iggy's Week 5 NCAA Picks

[iggymcfly]

Read the first post in the thread.

[bills217]

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tend to be trap lines more often than not.

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[iggymcfly]

OK, apparently I was 100% lying when I said I was done betting for the week. I'm actually going to be on three more games tomorrow. (I know, nail one game and I get cocky.)

<u>Maryland at Rutgers -17.5 (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)</u>
So, if everybody's fading Dr. Bob, does that mean it's time to start following him again? Probably not, but I looked over his analysis and I think it's on solid ground. Basically, Rutgers strengths are running the ball and defending the run. Meanwhile, Maryland's a perfect matchup for them. The Terps can't throw the ball at all (108th in the country) and have had trouble defending the run too. (They rank 70th but playing WVU skews that a little).

Without the matchup difference, Sagarin says the line should be at 15.5 and that's without WVU's loss making Maryland look worse. If the 'eers are really as bad as they played against USF and Marshall, than the Terps 17-point home loss is a little more damaging. Finally, Maryland's coming off an extremely demoralizing loss where they blew a 21 point lead in the last 20 minutes and should have a letdown. While I'd feel better back on the other side of the 17, I still think this is worth a small play.

<u>Oklahoma/Colorado under 55 (Risk 1.56u to win 1u)</u>
If I'm going to follow Dr. McRunsCold, I'm certainly going to make a play on MyTurn's POTW. Honestly, my analysis here is pretty much nil, other than that the public's going to like the over with the numbers OU's put up this year and that OU's going to be looking ahead to Texas which should cut down their big-play potential a little bit.

<u>LSU at Tulane +41 (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)</u>
Yes, I'm still capable of original thought. I said earlier in the week that if Tulane got up to 41 or 42, I'd think about hopping on. It did and I did. If there was ever a situation for one team to overlook another one, this would be it. This is a sandwich game coming right between the big game against South Carolina and the mammoth showdown with Florida. And to make it worse, it's on the road. LSU's going to sleepwalk from start to finish and probably end up winning something like 45-7.

[MyTurn2Raise]

ooops...I didn't put up my thinking for the POTW

you reminded me here

yep, OU is caught on the road in a look ahead week playing a stout rushing defense and decent pass defense. Last year, the Buffs held OU to 166 yardss on 49 carries (3.4 ypc) and 105 yards passing in a 24-3 defeat in Norman.
On the other side of the ball, my early optimism for Colorado has been crushed. CSU isn't very good and neither is Miami OH. Other than a quick, surprising 14 points at ASU (only one offensive td though), CU got manhandled as the Sundevils shut them out the last 3.5 quarters (only 204 yards on the game) and were battered by the FSU defense for only 6 points. With OU's bigxii leading rush defense and above average pass defense, the Buffs are going to need some help on offense.

Once OU gets ahead, they aren't likely to do anything out of the box....no injuries and don't waste playbook.

I have a nuetral ev O/U at 51 on this game. So, yeah, I like u55 a bit.

[MyTurn2Raise]

iggy...I wouldn't count the LSU game as 'road'

I'm actually giving LSU +2 points in HFA even though they are playing on Tulane's field.

The stadium will be 75%+ LSU

[iggymcfly]

Good point. I still think the Tigers might be a little more likely to come out sluggish without all the students there and the noise of Death Valley, but I can see how the LSU fans at the Superdome could be underaccounted for. Probably enough to make the Tulane bet close to neutral EV.

[milenky]

Really good writeups Iggy, it's appreciated. I'm backing you on Air Force and Rutgers, for a unit each.

[iggymcfly]

You can cross Tulane off my card. I actually posted my picks last night before finalizing at the available price and then when MyTurn brought up the home advantage thing, I made an offer for a different price that was a couple cents better for me instead, thinking it was pretty likely someone would take it overnight anyway.

Well, no one did. If LSU was up 14-0 early, I would have counted the pick anyway, but it's 0-0 three and a half minutes in and LSU's already missed a FG, so I think cancelling the pick now is fair.

[MicroBob]

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Good point. I still think the Tigers might be a little more likely to come out sluggish without all the students there and the noise of Death Valley, but I can see how the LSU fans at the Superdome could be underaccounted for. Probably enough to make the Tulane bet close to neutral EV.

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Didn't see this point before.
The dome will basically be an LSU home-field crowd-wise and I think you can see that on TV now.

When LSU plays in the Sugar Bowl that city goes freaking nuts. When LSU has a home-game in Baton Rouge all of New Orleans is watching and cheering for them.

Very few people care about Tulane. New Orleans is distinctly LSU country.
LSU isn't as familiar with the setting as they are at home though whereas Tulane is. And no matter how loud the Superdome gets it still won't be as intimidating to an opponent as Death Valley especially at night.

Also keep in mind that this is an 11am start-time in Louisiana.
Are there any studies about teams having slow-starts on offense when their game starts at 10am or 11am local-time?

[iggymcfly]

I don't know if it would be true all the time, but when they're playing a sub-100 team in between two Top 15 teams, I'm sure the start time contributes. Definitely wish I had real action on Tulane right now.